Kerryon Johnson Value

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Kerryon Johnson value

Early 1st
104
55%
Mid 1st
51
27%
Late 1st
22
12%
Early 2nd
7
4%
Mid 2nd
1
1%
Late 2nd
4
2%
 
Total votes: 189

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Valhalla » Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:52 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:27 am
AlPal&Ange wrote: Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:00 pm Kerryon was my 1.02 last year... albeit a very large tier drop behind Barkley. That being said, I wouldn't trade him for anything besides the 1.01 AT THIS POINT this year, maybe wouldn't even later...

To put my valuation into place for a more tangible asset, I wouldn't trade him for Brandin Cooks or Jarvis, but would trade him for Diggs or JuJu
Blasphemy. :lol:
:lol: Cooks gets needlessly blasted all the time. He’s a target for hatred for some reason. It’s probably because he’s only good because of Goff now :D

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:13 am

Valhalla wrote: Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:52 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:27 am
AlPal&Ange wrote: Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:00 pm Kerryon was my 1.02 last year... albeit a very large tier drop behind Barkley. That being said, I wouldn't trade him for anything besides the 1.01 AT THIS POINT this year, maybe wouldn't even later...

To put my valuation into place for a more tangible asset, I wouldn't trade him for Brandin Cooks or Jarvis, but would trade him for Diggs or JuJu
Blasphemy. :lol:
:lol: Cooks gets needlessly blasted all the time. He’s a target for hatred for some reason. It’s probably because he’s only good because of Goff now :D
Duhh I mean he was only good because of Brady before... and before that, Brees. And hes small so he cant be a WR1. And his numbers are so boom and bust... ugh

:)

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:36 am

Jigga94 wrote: Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:13 am
Valhalla wrote: Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:52 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:27 am

Blasphemy. :lol:
:lol: Cooks gets needlessly blasted all the time. He’s a target for hatred for some reason. It’s probably because he’s only good because of Goff now :D
Duhh I mean he was only good because of Brady before... and before that, Brees. And hes small so he cant be a WR1. And his numbers are so boom and bust... ugh

:)
Yep. People like Diggs more than him, though. Diggs and his blistering 10 YPC. Diggs has quietly turned into Landry LOL. I'll take Cooks over Diggs. And Cooks over KJ. Not to derail the thread, I would say KJ is worth 1.01, and maybe more. Chubb to me is worth 2 early firsts, so I'd have to say KJ is in the boat of more than an early first. Once they have shown to be productive in the NFL, and were a first rounder to begin with, the price has to go up.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreakGuru » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:06 am

After the small sample size we've seen from Kerryon. Whata everyone think about his future? Detroit is a mess, but can he be sustainable ans trust worthy as an rb2 next year ?
12 team league (Year One) Updated Week 14 2018 Season
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QB-Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota
RB- Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Tarik Cohen, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber
WR- Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin, Nelson Agholor, Marvin Jones, Dede Westbrook, John Brown, Taywan Taylor
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Johnny Canuck » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:27 am

FantasyFreakGuru wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:06 am After the small sample size we've seen from Kerryon. Whata everyone think about his future? Detroit is a mess, but can he be sustainable ans trust worthy as an rb2 next year ?
If he's healthy, he'll easily be an RB2.

When Kerryon was finally starting to get a stronger share of the work, after their bye week, he was producing at a fairly high clip.

Week 7: 19.9 pts (RB 8)
Week 8: 15.1 pts (RB 19)
Week 9: 7.4 pts (RB 32) - this was a bad week for the entire offense, they got dusted by Minny.
Week 10: 24.9 pts (RB 12)
Week 11: 17.7 pts (RB 12)

That's an average of 17 ppr points per game. 17 ppg would of ranked 11th for RBs. Obvs that's not great math, but that's just to give you an idea of were he could be if given the reigns.

Now Blount is likely gone, Riddick is only under contract for 2019, and they've hired an OC in Bevell that likes to run.

Arrows pointing up for Kerryon's future production.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby hockeyBjj » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:58 am

Weaker class, unless a 2nd round RB goes to the Chiefs it's hard to say he's not worth the 1.01
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QB: Lamar Jackson, Purdy
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team 2- 12 team SF, .5PPR, .5TE boost, 1QB, 1SF, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
2022: 8-1
Finishes: 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd :wall:
QB: Ljax, GenoD Jones, Minshew, Dobbs
RB: CMC, Stevenson, A Jones, Chubb, A Mattison, D cook, Perine, Mckinnon,
WR:Tyreek, Diggs, C Kupp, D Adams, Keenan Allen, Lockett, Gallup, A Lazard, Hodgins
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Johnny Canuck » Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:29 am

hockeyBjj wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:58 am Weaker class, unless a 2nd round RB goes to the Chiefs it's hard to say he's not worth the 1.01
I'd prob want the 1.01+ even if someone like Holyfield went to KC. I don't think Damien Williams is gonna give up that job very easily, and prob won't give up the 3rd down role imo.

Kerryon has Riddick to deal with, but Kerryon can catch at the same level as him, and I believe Riddick will gradually get schemed out of the offense. Also, unless I'm mistaken (which I may be), I think Kerryon is still younger than most of the RBs entering the draft this yr.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreakGuru » Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:57 am

Thanks, yeah I tried to trade up for him in a start up but dude must have known exactly who I wanted lol.
12 team league (Year One) Updated Week 14 2018 Season
DYNASTY GIANTS - 1pt PPR League Qb, Rb, Rb, Wr, Wr, Te, Flex (WR/RB/TE) K, D
Team Name: Keep It Green

QB-Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota
RB- Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Tarik Cohen, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber
WR- Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin, Nelson Agholor, Marvin Jones, Dede Westbrook, John Brown, Taywan Taylor
TE-Austin Hooper, Jimmy Graham, Ian Thomas
K&DEF- Matchup Stream Weekly
2019 pick Early 2nd, Late 2nd, Late 3rd, Late 4th
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Vcize » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:06 am

Johnny Canuck wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:29 am
hockeyBjj wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:58 am Weaker class, unless a 2nd round RB goes to the Chiefs it's hard to say he's not worth the 1.01
I'd prob want the 1.01+ even if someone like Holyfield went to KC. I don't think Damien Williams is gonna give up that job very easily, and prob won't give up the 3rd down role imo.

Kerryon has Riddick to deal with, but Kerryon can catch at the same level as him, and I believe Riddick will gradually get schemed out of the offense. Also, unless I'm mistaken (which I may be), I think Kerryon is still younger than most of the RBs entering the draft this yr.
Yes Kerryon was extremely young coming into the league. He doesn't even turn 22 until the end of june.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Jfever » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:12 am

I voted early first but agree with others that He is actually worth more than that. I value him as equal to Sony M. Actually, I think talent wise, he is the closest from his class to S.Barkley. No way in heck is a single 2019 first equal to the upside and production that K.Johnson should / could provide.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Servo » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:53 am

The fact that WR are dominating the 1st Round so far...and NO ONE has PTSD from all the recent 1st Round busts at the position...I think Kerryon could easily be considered at the 1.01.

Detroit was incredibly annoying easing him in, but then he became annoying when he got hurt (I jest). I'd love to get him for a late first, but I see him being more valuable than that...dude looked really good in 2018.

And with Bevell being hired...RIP Golladay...and FIRE UP Kerryon

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby KingsKing » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:01 pm

Worth more than the 1.1 in this draft imo

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:08 pm

Servo wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:53 am The fact that WR are dominating the 1st Round so far...and NO ONE has PTSD from all the recent 1st Round busts at the position...I think Kerryon could easily be considered at the 1.01.

Detroit was incredibly annoying easing him in, but then he became annoying when he got hurt (I jest). I'd love to get him for a late first, but I see him being more valuable than that...dude looked really good in 2018.

And with Bevell being hired...RIP Golladay...and FIRE UP Kerryon
I don't really agree with this. Bevell had AP in his prime and Beast mode in his prime with that Seattle D and the Legion of Boom. Of course he was going to run a lot, he would have been dumb not to. I don't think KJ is a workhorse to the level of those two, or nearly as talented. Golladay should still see 120 targets IMO. The Lions are trying to be a well balanced team on offense, but Stafford only threw the ball 555 times this year, so I don't think that drops a whole lot. I see KJ getting 20 touches a game, but I think he'll catch quite a few passes.

For value I think he's right at the 1.01 or slightly higher at least for now.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Johnny Canuck » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:56 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:08 pm I don't really agree with this. Bevell had AP in his prime and Beast mode in his prime with that Seattle D and the Legion of Boom. Of course he was going to run a lot, he would have been dumb not to. I don't think KJ is a workhorse to the level of those two, or nearly as talented. Golladay should still see 120 targets IMO. The Lions are trying to be a well balanced team on offense, but Stafford only threw the ball 555 times this year, so I don't think that drops a whole lot. I see KJ getting 20 touches a game, but I think he'll catch quite a few passes.

For value I think he's right at the 1.01 or slightly higher at least for now.
I don't think RIP Golladay is entirely accurate, but I wouldn't call it a positive for Golladay in any form. If anything it's likely a down tick regarding what his potential production could of been with a different OC.

Here's why I say that:
- In the 12 years Bevell has been an OC, he's only had a WR get/break 120 targets 2 times. 2009 with Sidney Rice (121 targets), and 2016 Baldwin (125).
- As an OC, Bevell's top targeted WR averages only 100.33 targets per season.
- With Marvin Jones in the lineup, Golladay averaged 6.78 targets per game (108 target per 16 game pace)
- With Marvin Jones out of the lineup, Golladay averaged 9.5 targets per game (152 target per 16 game pace)
- Marvin Jones will be back in the lineup next season.
- Also Bevell's QBs have averaged only 469.42 pass attempts per season. Far less than the 555 Stafford threw this yr.

It's true that in Bevell's last two seasons as OC, his QB attempted 546, and 553 passes, but is that a tiger changing it's stripes? or was that due to circumstance? I would tend to lean with circumstance. Those were the only seasons were Bevell couldn't establish a run game, but he was stuck using the likes of: Rawls, Christine Michael, and 'Cheeseburger' Eddie Lacy.

If that's me, I use those two seasons as the exception, not the rule - I'd prob use the 10 years prior as the rule. If you take out those last two seasons, when Bevell couldn't establish the run, his QB attempts drop to 453.4 pass attempts per season. That's a pretty big red flag.

Yes, Bevell had AP and Lynch to work with, but that just proves that when he has talent at the RB position, he leans on it. Like you said, he'd be an idiot not to do so. Kerryon might not be in the mold of AP/Lynch, or as talented as the HOFers, but he is highly talented - his 2nd best ypc sheds some light on that. He's more similar to a McCaff/Bell style, but those guys have been able to maintain heavy volume, so I don't think his different style will mitigate a heavy volume.

I think your argument was more with the Golladay side of things, rather than Kerryon, as you stated that you thought he could get up to 20 touches per game (320 touches per season pace - basically what McCaff got this yr), which would be great. I don't want this to become a Kerryon vs Golladay thread, but I would caution all Golladay owners to not get too excited. Yes Golladay will still be a great player, but likely just not as good as we were hoping to see. There are definite red flags with Bevell as OC, and it might even be a good time to sell high (as weird as that sounds with a young player, but he has alot of hype right now).

Anyways, that's all I got for now.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Pullo Vision » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:09 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:56 pmAnyways, that's all I got for now.
And it was very useful! :thumbup:
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