The Tyreek Hill Thread

[Goddard]

So a guy in his second year (basically rookie season) can't improve or at least match his production going forward? Seems kinda silly to me. But we think MT and OBJ will continue their productivity when they have rookie QBs or some free agent addition throwing them the ball? I'm sure both are possible, but if I had to bet, I'd say the odds of Mahomes continuing to play at this level is more likely than the other guys getting new QBs and continuing their level of play.

[TheRookiePro]

I'm sure both are possible, but if I had to bet, I'd say the odds of Mahomes continuing to play at this level is more likely than the other guys getting new QBs and continuing their level of play.

If Reid isn't fired. Can't stress that enough.

[Jigga94]

So a guy in his second year (basically rookie season) can't improve or at least match his production going forward? Seems kinda silly to me. But we think MT and OBJ will continue their productivity when they have rookie QBs or some free agent addition throwing them the ball? I'm sure both are possible, but if I had to bet, I'd say the odds of Mahomes continuing to play at this level is more likely than the other guys getting new QBs and continuing their level of play.

It's useless to make a point against someone that will argue anything.

Hill is apparently a boom or bust candidate in his eyes given the arbitrary numbers he wants to use. Man I bet trading with him is a pain in the bleep

[Multiple Scorgasms]

I'm sure both are possible, but if I had to bet, I'd say the odds of Mahomes continuing to play at this level is more likely than the other guys getting new QBs and continuing their level of play.

If Reid isn't fired. Can't stress that enough.

You can parrot this as much as you want, but I'm a diehard Chiefs fan and I can tell you Reid isn't getting fired any time soon. He got a VERY lucrative 5-year extension last year. He's more likely to get another than get fired. The only coaching changes will be teams continuing to poach his assistants, and firing a defensive guy or 2. Make no mistake, KC's offense (Reid's brainchild) is going nowhere for years to come.

[Jigga94]

I'm sure both are possible, but if I had to bet, I'd say the odds of Mahomes continuing to play at this level is more likely than the other guys getting new QBs and continuing their level of play.

If Reid isn't fired. Can't stress that enough.

You can parrot this as much as you want, but I'm a diehard Chiefs fan and I can tell you Reid isn't getting fired any time soon. He got a VERY lucrative 5-year extension last year. He's more likely to get another than get fired. The only coaching changes will be teams continuing to poach his assistants, and firing a defensive guy or 2. Make no mistake, KC's offense (Reid's brainchild) is going nowhere for years to come.

Ooh talk dirty to my Mahomes / Hill stack

[ArrylT]

I do not see why the two things cannot be true? T. Hill can be considered to be in the top tier of WRs while still having more boom/bust production. His boom is just obviously bigger and his bust is less scary.

People were saying that about Brandin Cooks for years that he was a boom bust WR3. And now this year he has had 1 game below 10 ppg and is 36 yards away from his 4th straight 1000 yard season.

Further regression can be possible in that TD production changes from year to year. Randy Moss for example NEVER had 2 back to back years of 15+ TDs. That is inspite of having 6 straight 1200+ yard seasons & 10 seasons of 1000+ yards. Calvin Johnson never had 2 15+ TD seasons and only 2 10+ TD seasons back to back. I think the only WR who put up a sustained stretch of double digit TDs is Terrell Owens and Jerry Rice - and by sustained I mean like 3 straight or 4 out of 6. Beckham might get 4 of 5 if he gets 5 more TDs or if he had played a full season last year - who knows but he never reached 15+. Antonio Brown ahs never reached 15+ although he will have 4 of 5 soon.

Tyreek Hill had 6 & 7 TDs his 1st 2 years and now has 11 in 11 games. Now maybe Tyreek Hill can have 2-3-4 straight years of double digit TDs. But it is certainly possible he could maintain the same yardage & receptions next year and have 8 TDs instead of 16 and have a 50 point regression that way.

I am just pointing out regression is possible. Still doesnt stop Hill from being considered a top 5 WR. One good thing is that all the other names being mentioned are all in the same age range of 24-26. Evans, Thomas, Beckham & Hopkins.

Last but not least should not Juju Smith-Schuster be considered the #1 WR - after all he is younger & putting up WR1 numbers. His 1st year is better than Tyreeks, if you exclude rushing yardage , his 2nd year is on pace to be better than Tyreeks 2nd. And you cannot give positive expectations to Tyreek Hill without doing the same for Juju. So his 3rd year should be better than Tyreeks 3rd year. Obviously I jest but maybe a year from now he does enter the top 5 discussion.

[ArrylT]

Also do not forget Odell Beckham did what he did in his 1st year in 11-12 games not 16. Then there was all this worry about how he would either (a) not replicate his stats or (b) no one would stop him and he'd have like 2000 yards & 20 Tds - sort of like Calvin Johnson 2012 (although he only had 5 TDs to go with his almost 2000k yards).

Well neither happened right - Beckham put up 2 more straight top 5 years - but did not reach those lofty heights either. Things have a way of leveling off. Teams learned how to defend Randy Moss so I assume they will some day learn how to defend Mahomes & Hill.

Or the Chiefs win the next 4 Super Bowls.

[Goddard]

Can't that be said about any other player at any other position? So why are we claiming that Hill will regress, but no one else in the top 5? Ofcourse there's a possibility he regresses, but no higher than guys like MT and OBJ regressing and not getting record setting targets or playing with new QBs who aren't very good. Just seems like people are picking on Hill for some reason, when in reality, he's done nothing but be great this year. I remember when everyone said Melvin Gordon would regress. That he was reliant on TDs last year and the workload he got. Well, he's only gotten better so far.

[fakespike13]

haven't read thread yet but are there really still people dying on the Hill "will regress/is inconsistent" er... hill? I'm not saying he's hands down #1, yet. I think he is of essentially equivalent value as the utmost tier, ie. OBJ, Nuk, Thomas, Adams maybe. Julio and AB are too old to compare value and potential wise with those guys in my opinion. So of those 4, fine, make your case that one of them has more value than Hill. Your arguments wont be poor or provably incorrect. But I'd rather have Hill, and if any of my league mates have ever lurked/spied on me on here... bring it. i'll put my money where my mouth is.

[ArrylT]

I certainly am not - I am just noting regression is possible in the case of Hill.

Actually for all the others - except Thomas - regression HAS already occurred and then they've adjusted. IE if you look at Adams, Evans, Odell, Hopkins they each had down years before an improvement. Each one of those players has gone through what Hill may be about to go through.

In other words they have shown what their floor is. So maybe that is some of what some owners may be concerned about. They want to see what Hills upside floor now that we are seeing what his upside ceiling is. When you're going up at some point you are bound to go back down - how far is not an unfair question to ask is it?

Furthermore the reverse is true - if it is only fair to talk about regression for all then it is only fair to talk about improvement for all. Ergo the mentions of Beckham and a better QB or Thomas finding life after Brees or Brees playing for 2-3 more years.

I do not own any Hill shares so I do not have a stake in it - and I am in no way arguing against Hill being top 5 - in fact I wish more owners in my leagues were selling Hill like they believed he was - because the trades I've seen do not suggest it hah.

So basically all I have said is (a) regression is possible, (b) he is in good company and (c) if he repeats this year next year he's in rarefied territory because not even previous elite WRs have had 1500 yard 15+ TD seasons back to back. That does not mean it is not possible though.

Oh and yeah Juju #1

[metalmat]

All I know is when I see him play on the highlights this guy is always looking amazing. Awesome routes, speed, catching. This dude will be the next Antonio Brown but faster.

[Goddard]

Just curious, but for those saying Hill is boom or bust, does that mean Michael Thomas is now an even bigger boom or bust with two straight games under 10 points?

[notweswelker]

Let's nitpick some more then...

Hill has 5/11 games under 20 ppg
Odell has 5/10
Odell is worse

Hill has 4 games over 30 points, 2 of which being 40 point outings
Odell only has 1 game over 30 points
Odell is worse

Hill's 4th best game still beats Odell's best performance

They're both top 5 dynasty WR and to nitpick with your arbitrary numbers looks and is quite silly

No no no. Watkins is the WR1 in that offense.

There were still people not long ago claiming this. Like 2 weeks ago.

No kidding.
In those guys' defense, we've all had some hills that we have died on. Mine this year was definitely underestimating the return of Andrew Luck.

I think Hill is slightly more boom/bust than some of the most consistent elite WRs (not all of them), but his boom is better than any other's boom. I have no reason to believe he will suffer any serious regression, he looks primed to be a very good fantasy wide receiver for a long time. I think he's top 5 dynasty WR at this point, picking between that group is nitpicking.

[Flschbrger]

I'll take him at #1 WR at this point just for the sheer fact he can win you weeks completely on his own. Even if he shows inconsistencies here and there.

[Jfever]

I'll take him at #1 WR at this point just for the sheer fact he can win you weeks completely on his own. Even if he shows inconsistencies here and there.

I think its fair to say that a few wr currently in the NFL fit this bill ^ I wouldn't fault anyone having any of Nuk, OBJ, Hill, M.Thomas, or A.Brown as their dynasty #1 wr. Hill is definitely in the conversation.