I think Foreman's rookie year tape was mostly bad (certainly graded poorly on PFF), and that his injury has high probability to permanently diminish his explosiveness.jetsfan5757 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:30 pm Derrius Guice went for the second highest amount in our rookie/ FA auction (to me), despite the fact that he had already sustained his ACL. I know that Lattimore's injury was worse than Guice's, but it, and David Wilson's were also worse than Foreman's. I get your point, I just think you chose really extreme examples. I personally still feel that Foreman's chances of coming back well enough to be a productive RB are as good as my getting a productive RB with a mid to late 2nd, so I wouldn't sell at that price. I have seen Foreman in the NFL and I think he is good enough to share a backfield and maybe even start. That's more than I can say about any 2nd round pick at this point (haven't seen any of them in the NFL yet). I know that at least 1 or 2 of them (2nd round picks) will outperform what I THINK Foreman could do, but I know that the majority of them will be busts...
It's not about sunk costs, it's not about the crap you mentioned in your last post. I choose to hold him because I think his odds of being productive are as good as anyone I will get in the 2nd round. People act like a second rounder is worth a lot. It's a dart throw. If you're rebuilding and get a bunch of them, you're likely to hit. Otherwise the odds are stacked against you. I can't speak for others who don't want to sell at this price, but that is my logic...
With that said, all of your post is reasonable. I personally think Foreman's worth maybe a 3rd at this point, but rookie draft picks are often overvalued, and if you don't have better than a dart-throw hit-rate with 2nd rounders in your draft history, it's rational for you to personally devalue them.
I only counter-point that just because you're down on 2nds doesn't mean everyone else in your league feels the same, and so you could be surprised what existing players you might snag by offering a 2nd. Even if you devalue picks for your own use, they still represent currency with buying power potentially greater than your personal valuation.