Foreman Value Now?

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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby Pet_Smith » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:28 am

Achilles is hard to recover from, but I'm not putting much stock in the articles being bandied around - they relate to players in the NFL only up to 2002, with most > 29 years of age.

Looking outside the bubble of the NFL, there are plenty of high profile players who have recovered from achilles injuries. Kobe Bryant came back early in his recovery (helped by David Beckham, who was back playing for LA Galaxy 6 months after rupturing his. At the age of 35). In fact it seems to be much more prevalent in soccer where the demands are just as high on the body, and doesn't impact them in future. Laurent Koscielny the most recent, who returned to training 3 months after surgery - and he's 32. He hasn't begun playing yet, but is expected back before the end of the month and his rupture was in April this year. The timetable for another footballer - Yarmolenko - is 6 months to return to matches post surgery. So, I guess I'm saying I don't know why it should be any different for NFL players??

But, it is still a risk. And there's not really a big enough sample size to know how good Foreman actually was, let alone if he'll be that again, or even improve on that. It seems like some NFL players have more trouble staying in shape when injured as well
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby Servo » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:49 am

As many have already mentioned, this is unknown territory. Most of the names we've seen here used as examples were all in their mid-late 20's.

If he doesn't play at all in 2018, I think I'd start to get worried because while there aren't a ton of "high-profile" RBs in this draft, you have Leveon, Tevin Coleman, etc. floating around out there come Free-Agency.

Last year I thought Foreman had big potential, huge dominator in college, good speed for a big back but was also running behind one of the worst OL's in football (and that's still true today). I wouldn't disagree with anyone selling him today because there is a lot of uncertainty...maybe he comes back and lights the world on fire, maybe he comes back and is just an RBBC guy and maybe he comes back and just truly isn't the same.

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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:13 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:06 pmSimilar to how the patellar tendon tear was supposed to be career ending and Jimmy Graham came back and dropped big numbers. I get that Graham was a stud before that and Foreman is an unknown, but I think sometimes these things are overstated.
To be fair though, given my limited medical knowledge, patellar tears are more difficult for RBs and WRs to recover from because it's a tendon needed to make cuts. As a TE who mostly gets 50/50 balls rather than relying on precise route-running, Graham was less affected. Achilles injuries affect explosiveness, which would make it difficult to accelerate off the snap and through holes for a RB. Again, really we just don't know because every injury is different, and every player's recovery rate is different.
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby themburns » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:24 am

Listen, I know where most of you lie, I saw the months of Foreman hype on this board. I'm speaking to well, newer owners who might not remember guys like say, Marcus Lattimore or David Wilson. Despite the medical evidence pointing towards (different) career ending injuries, the market was irrational on them because of youth and the talent they had shown before. This is a warning. They still carried a name value. As the literature I pointed out indicates, linebackers and running backs have the worst return to play among those who suffered this injury.

It is impressive to see top end athletes like Graham and Suggs return and be productive. However, that too is a very different case from this one, in that they were known elite/HOF level performers. Their teams were heavily invested in them and their recoveries. In addition, they had the resources to seek out solutions on their own. Jimmy Graham stated that he played through the 2016 season in significant chronic pain, until on his own, he found a stem cell clinic (The Wellbeing International Foundation) that performs a procedure not approved by the FDA that he paid for at his own expense. Foreman has 3rd round rookie money, and he plays the most disposable position in football this side of kicker.

It's understandable that there are still believers. For him to tear the Achilles on a TD run was particularly cruel of the universe. But, if you can't reckon with the idea that missing 18 months of football and likely losing some of the ceiling on a prospect drives the market price of an asset down, well then the market (in your leagues) was just always going to be you.

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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby jetsfan5757 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:19 am

Lattimore was a knee and Wilson was his neck. I get the analogy but the injuries were totally different.

I'm not arguing about what the market price is (which varies from league to league, as we can see). I am saying that if market price is a 2nd, especially a mid to late second, then I'm not interested. Not because I, "can't reckon with the idea that missing 18 months of football and likely losing some of the ceiling on a prospect drives the market price of an asset down", but because I disagree with the market.

I own Apple stock. The market has a price that Apple is worth today. I'm not selling at that price. It doesn't mean I "can't reckon with something", it just means that I have different reasons and expectations...
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby Vcize » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:46 am

themburns wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:24 am Listen, I know where most of you lie, I saw the months of Foreman hype on this board. I'm speaking to well, newer owners who might not remember guys like say, Marcus Lattimore or David Wilson. Despite the medical evidence pointing towards (different) career ending injuries, the market was irrational on them because of youth and the talent they had shown before. This is a warning. They still carried a name value. As the literature I pointed out indicates, linebackers and running backs have the worst return to play among those who suffered this injury.

It is impressive to see top end athletes like Graham and Suggs return and be productive. However, that too is a very different case from this one, in that they were known elite/HOF level performers. Their teams were heavily invested in them and their recoveries. In addition, they had the resources to seek out solutions on their own. Jimmy Graham stated that he played through the 2016 season in significant chronic pain, until on his own, he found a stem cell clinic (The Wellbeing International Foundation) that performs a procedure not approved by the FDA that he paid for at his own expense. Foreman has 3rd round rookie money, and he plays the most disposable position in football this side of kicker.

It's understandable that there are still believers. For him to tear the Achilles on a TD run was particularly cruel of the universe. But, if you can't reckon with the idea that missing 18 months of football and likely losing some of the ceiling on a prospect drives the market price of an asset down, well then the market (in your leagues) was just always going to be you.
I am low on Foreman's chances on ever becoming a worthwhile fantasy asset but there's still a lot I don't disagree with up there. Lattimore and Wilson weren't injuries that were really related. If anything Lattimore's injury was a lot like Chubb's and we all see how things ended up differently for him.

The achilles data is flawed for RBs. Yes it worse for RBs than other positions, but it is a small sample size and the data trends older at RB than other positions, not to mention the greater effect of age already at RB than other positions. I believe there are only two RBs under age 25 with achilles tears. Granted the results were very bad for both of them but we're still talking about a sample of 2 here. Beyond that how relevant is it to a 22 year old D'onta Foreman's chances of returning that a 32 year old Aaron Stecker never played again after tearing his achilles, or that a 31 year old Arian Foster who was washing up and hadn't broken 3ypc in 2 years decided to call it quits when his achilles blew up?

Foreman is a dart throw at this point for sure. But the injury is built into his price. Had he broken his wrist last year instead of tore his achilles he probably would have entered this season with mid 1st round rookie pick value. So at a mid 2nd the relatively high probability that the injury will derail him is already built in.
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby Life of Pablo » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:58 am

Vcize wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:46 am Foreman is a dart throw at this point for sure. But the injury is built into his price. Had he broken his wrist last year instead of tore his achilles he probably would have entered this season with mid 1st round rookie pick value. So at a mid 2nd the relatively high probability that the injury will derail him is already built in.
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby Johnny Canuck » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:50 am

Mid 2nd seems about right.

But imo the best thing to do imo is to sell.

BOB has said that Foreman has some conditioning issues to resolve, so that'll take a few weeks to get into game shape. Fast fwd three weeks and Foreman is ready to play, but by now it's already week 13, and it's not like Miller/Blue are going anywhere. So even if Foreman is able to play, it's highly probable to be an ugly committee...and that's IF Foreman plays.

So best case Foreman owners are going into next season (because he won't help this season), with a guy that got on the field at the end of the season....but then FA comes and do you want to be stuck holding the bag. Sell to someone that hasn't looked this far down the calendar, and/or doesn't know the contract status of Texans RBs.

Miller is all but gone, by cutting him they can save 6,250,00 against the cap with only a 1 mil dead cap hit. Alfred Blue is also a FA after this season.

The Texans will be signing and/or drafting some RBs even if it's purely from a depth perspective, but in all likelihood they'll be looking to sign a starter. They have the cap space, and while their playoff window isn't closing fast, it would be in their best interest to try and make a push while Watson is still on his rookie deal.

BOB likes to run, and also likes to lean on one RB if possible. In the offseason he's going to look at his depth chart, and see only one RB, and it's a guy that played a handful of games as a rookie, and was recovering from an achilles rupture in 2018. You are fooling yourself if you think he's going to fine going into 2019 with Foreman as a lead dog.

Every FA signing or RB that gets drafted is going to further drop the trade value of Foreman throughout the offseason.

Sell now, or be prepared to hold him thru the rough offseason (when no one will give you anything close to his current value), and you're just hoping he can win the job.

But it might be tough with a FA RB class of: Bell, Ingram, Coleman, Yeldon, Ajayi, Latavius, AP, Collins, Barber, Ware, Mike Davis, TyMont, Buck Allen, Rod Smith.

And a Draft Class of: Harris, Love, and others that will emerge as draft season ramps up.

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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby remedy29 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:41 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:50 am
But it might be tough with a FA RB class of: Bell, Ingram, Coleman, Yeldon, Ajayi, Latavius, AP, Collins, Barber, Ware, Mike Davis, TyMont, Buck Allen, Rod Smith.

And a Draft Class of: Harris, Love, and others that will emerge as draft season ramps up.
As a Foreman owner, outside of Bell and a couple top rookies, I’d be happy if Houston signed any of these RBs and be optimistic that a healthy Foreman could be the lead in a RBBC. It really would just come down to Foreman’s recovery, and with that, I still take Foreman over a mid 2019 2nd. If this was 2018 draft class, it would be a different discussion.

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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby M-Dub » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:03 pm

I didn’t draft Foreman, but I traded for him prior to the start of last season. I liked what I saw from him in limited action last year, but I think the concerns about both his recovery and future competition in the HOU backfield are legitimate. It does seem a little too optimistic to value him at a mid/high 2nd. I’d sell for that pretty easily, but nobody in my league is offering that. A late 2nd seems fair. Anything less, and I’d rather just hold and cross my fingers.
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby jetsfan5757 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:05 pm

remedy29 wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:41 pm
Johnny Canuck wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:50 am
But it might be tough with a FA RB class of: Bell, Ingram, Coleman, Yeldon, Ajayi, Latavius, AP, Collins, Barber, Ware, Mike Davis, TyMont, Buck Allen, Rod Smith.

And a Draft Class of: Harris, Love, and others that will emerge as draft season ramps up.
As a Foreman owner, outside of Bell and a couple top rookies, I’d be happy if Houston signed any of these RBs and be optimistic that a healthy Foreman could be the lead in a RBBC. It really would just come down to Foreman’s recovery, and with that, I still take Foreman over a mid 2019 2nd. If this was 2018 draft class, it would be a different discussion.
I own Foreman and I'd rather not see Coleman sign in Houston. In terms of a handcuff, that would be perfect for me, but I think that would turn into a 60/40 committee with Coleman as the 60. Ingram could also beat out Foreman and he's 28. Not exactly ancient. The rest I am less worried about...
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby ericanadian » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:44 pm

themburns wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:24 am Listen, I know where most of you lie, I saw the months of Foreman hype on this board. I'm speaking to well, newer owners who might not remember guys like say, Marcus Lattimore or David Wilson. Despite the medical evidence pointing towards (different) career ending injuries, the market was irrational on them because of youth and the talent they had shown before. This is a warning. They still carried a name value. As the literature I pointed out indicates, linebackers and running backs have the worst return to play among those who suffered this injury.

It is impressive to see top end athletes like Graham and Suggs return and be productive. However, that too is a very different case from this one, in that they were known elite/HOF level performers. Their teams were heavily invested in them and their recoveries. In addition, they had the resources to seek out solutions on their own. Jimmy Graham stated that he played through the 2016 season in significant chronic pain, until on his own, he found a stem cell clinic (The Wellbeing International Foundation) that performs a procedure not approved by the FDA that he paid for at his own expense. Foreman has 3rd round rookie money, and he plays the most disposable position in football this side of kicker.

It's understandable that there are still believers. For him to tear the Achilles on a TD run was particularly cruel of the universe. But, if you can't reckon with the idea that missing 18 months of football and likely losing some of the ceiling on a prospect drives the market price of an asset down, well then the market (in your leagues) was just always going to be you.
Lattimore blew up his knee multiple times and Wilson wasn’t athletically unable to compete. There was a risk that he’d end up a quad if he did. I believe he moved on to track. Not even a little comparable in either case.
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby themburns » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:06 pm

ericanadian wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:44 pm
themburns wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:24 am
Lattimore blew up his knee multiple times and Wilson wasn’t athletically unable to compete. There was a risk that he’d end up a quad if he did. I believe he moved on to track. Not even a little comparable in either case.
My point with Lattimore and Wilson is that they held market value based on their name value and FF's desperation for RB talent. Lattimore blew out his knee before he got to the NFL and was still going in the late 1st in rookie drafts that year, despite owners knowing he wouldn't have a chance of playing for twelve months. (He never was able to play, but the owners were betting on pedigree) David Wilson was diagnosed with Spinal Stenosis in October of 2013. In the DLF 2014 ADP collection, his average draft position was 130 overall, RB43, going ahead of such third round rookies (at the time) like Jarvis Landry, Martavis Bryant, Jerick McKinnon, and James White, and held steady until he retired.

Even after the fantasy community was informed of these injuries, they under-reacted. My guess is that it's a byproduct of the sunk cost fallacy.

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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby jetsfan5757 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:30 pm

Derrius Guice went for the second highest amount in our rookie/ FA auction (to me), despite the fact that he had already sustained his ACL. I know that Lattimore's injury was worse than Guice's, but it, and David Wilson's were also worse than Foreman's. I get your point, I just think you chose really extreme examples. I personally still feel that Foreman's chances of coming back well enough to be a productive RB are as good as my getting a productive RB with a mid to late 2nd, so I wouldn't sell at that price. I have seen Foreman in the NFL and I think he is good enough to share a backfield and maybe even start. That's more than I can say about any 2nd round pick at this point (haven't seen any of them in the NFL yet). I know that at least 1 or 2 of them (2nd round picks) will outperform what I THINK Foreman could do, but I know that the majority of them will be busts...

It's not about sunk costs, it's not about the crap you mentioned in your last post. I choose to hold him because I think his odds of being productive are as good as anyone I will get in the 2nd round. People act like a second rounder is worth a lot. It's a dart throw. If you're rebuilding and get a bunch of them, you're likely to hit. Otherwise the odds are stacked against you. I can't speak for others who don't want to sell at this price, but that is my logic...
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Re: Foreman Value Now?

Postby Pet_Smith » Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:23 am

What jetsfan said x2
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