Foreman Value Now?

[ninotoreS]

Derrius Guice went for the second highest amount in our rookie/ FA auction (to me), despite the fact that he had already sustained his ACL. I know that Lattimore's injury was worse than Guice's, but it, and David Wilson's were also worse than Foreman's. I get your point, I just think you chose really extreme examples. I personally still feel that Foreman's chances of coming back well enough to be a productive RB are as good as my getting a productive RB with a mid to late 2nd, so I wouldn't sell at that price. I have seen Foreman in the NFL and I think he is good enough to share a backfield and maybe even start. That's more than I can say about any 2nd round pick at this point (haven't seen any of them in the NFL yet). I know that at least 1 or 2 of them (2nd round picks) will outperform what I THINK Foreman could do, but I know that the majority of them will be busts...

It's not about sunk costs, it's not about the crap you mentioned in your last post. I choose to hold him because I think his odds of being productive are as good as anyone I will get in the 2nd round. People act like a second rounder is worth a lot. It's a dart throw. If you're rebuilding and get a bunch of them, you're likely to hit. Otherwise the odds are stacked against you. I can't speak for others who don't want to sell at this price, but that is my logic...

I think Foreman's rookie year tape was mostly bad (certainly graded poorly on PFF), and that his injury has high probability to permanently diminish his explosiveness.

With that said, all of your post is reasonable. I personally think Foreman's worth maybe a 3rd at this point, but rookie draft picks are often overvalued, and if you don't have better than a dart-throw hit-rate with 2nd rounders in your draft history, it's rational for you to personally devalue them.

I only counter-point that just because you're down on 2nds doesn't mean everyone else in your league feels the same, and so you could be surprised what existing players you might snag by offering a 2nd. Even if you devalue picks for your own use, they still represent currency with buying power potentially greater than your personal valuation.

[themburns]

I only counter-point that just because you're down on 2nds doesn't mean everyone else in your league feels the same, and so you could be surprised what existing players you might snag by offering a 2nd. Even if you devalue picks for your own use, they still represent currency with buying power potentially greater than your personal valuation.

Well said. 2nd rounder is a universal trade piece and is likely to appreciate.

[_yeti]

It's misleading to try to cite who has or hasn't come back from this injury or that "26%" never do. Why? Like others have said, not enough big names have had the injury and have not had it this young, so we don't know.

As with the statistics, according to the NFL Players Association the average career for an RB is 2.57 years in the NFL. And yet EVERY fantasy relevant RB, even third string guys stick around a lot longer than that, so when using blanket data to suggest whether a player will return or not is misleading.

Speculation injury blurbs are what has everyone scared without much more info or expertise than we have. Doubt I would sell for a second in a completely without hype 2019 class, and no one is giving a first, so he's a hold for me. If I'm buying, hmm maybe a 2nd in a league where I have no RBs but I would probably stay away. So if already invested, holding, if not invested, not buying.

[themburns]

It's misleading to try to cite who has or hasn't come back from this injury or that "26%" never do. Why? Like others have said, not enough big names have had the injury and have not had it this young, so we don't know.

As with the statistics, according to the NFL Players Association the average career for an RB is 2.57 years in the NFL. And yet EVERY fantasy relevant RB, even third string guys stick around a lot longer than that, so when using blanket data to suggest whether a player will return or not is misleading.

Speculation injury blurbs are what has everyone scared without much more info or expertise than we have. Doubt I would sell for a second in a completely without hype 2019 class, and no one is giving a first, so he's a hold for me. If I'm buying, hmm maybe a 2nd in a league where I have no RBs but I would probably stay away. So if already invested, holding, if not invested, not buying.

What better indicator of return to play is there than the medical data I've provided? Even if the reported recovery rate due to medical science doubles, Foreman would still have a 1/8 chance of never playing again. I also think it's a lark to refer to D'Onta Foreman as a "big name". And with an occurance rate of like, three-four tears per year (edit: from 2011-2015, there were in total 46 Achilles tears, so nine per year over that span), you'll never be able to get a sample size that is scientific relevant, especially when you add semantic caveats like "they've got to have a big name". I guess that's your right as an owner, but please let me know when there are openings in your leagues.

And that's before we ask how much did he lose/how much did he ever have to begin with. And lmao @ EVERY fantasy relevant RB plays more than 2.5 years. Just looking back over the last five years, Tre Mason, Jonathan Franklin, David Wilson, Marcus Lattimore, Zac Stacy, Karlos Williams all looked very promising, and most produced more than Foreman ever did (at the college level in Lattimore and Franklin's case)

[jimmychoi]

I’ve tried several times in my league to purchase Foreman. I offered two seconds and was turned down. Owner is insisting on a first being included. I’ve given up.

[Cameron Giles]

The medical history is definitely something. You can't dismiss it completely. Whatever Foreman's upside was, it's definitely not the same on paper right now.

[_yeti]

It's misleading to try to cite who has or hasn't come back from this injury or that "26%" never do. Why? Like others have said, not enough big names have had the injury and have not had it this young, so we don't know.

As with the statistics, according to the NFL Players Association the average career for an RB is 2.57 years in the NFL. And yet EVERY fantasy relevant RB, even third string guys stick around a lot longer than that, so when using blanket data to suggest whether a player will return or not is misleading.

Speculation injury blurbs are what has everyone scared without much more info or expertise than we have. Doubt I would sell for a second in a completely without hype 2019 class, and no one is giving a first, so he's a hold for me. If I'm buying, hmm maybe a 2nd in a league where I have no RBs but I would probably stay away. So if already invested, holding, if not invested, not buying.

What better indicator of return to play is there than the medical data I've provided? Even if the reported recovery rate due to medical science doubles, Foreman would still have a 1/8 chance of never playing again. I also think it's a lark to refer to D'Onta Foreman as a "big name". And with an occurance rate of like, three-four tears per year (edit: from 2011-2015, there were in total 46 Achilles tears, so nine per year over that span), you'll never be able to get a sample size that is scientific relevant, especially when you add semantic caveats like "they've got to have a big name". I guess that's your right as an owner, but please let me know when there are openings in your leagues.

And that's before we ask how much did he lose/how much did he ever have to begin with. And lmao @ EVERY fantasy relevant RB plays more than 2.5 years. Just looking back over the last five years, Tre Mason, Jonathan Franklin, David Wilson, Marcus Lattimore, Zac Stacy, Karlos Williams all looked very promising, and most produced more than Foreman ever did (at the college level in Lattimore and Franklin's case)

Karlos Williams actually set a record for consecutive games with a td as a rookie. He was one of the best HS recruits in the country and basically rose from 5th on the depth chart to time share while transitioning to RB and ran like a 4.4 at like 230... he was bounced for multiple failed drug tests and always had character concerns... Tre Mason had a well documented mental breakdown. Stacy flashed with opportunity but lost his spot as he was just a gap fill. He also was in the NFL from 2013 to 2016, was only 5'9 and he retired:

"On February 16, 2017, Stacy announced his retirement from the NFL. The early retirement was due to injuries and also to take care of his brother, who has Down Syndrome."

Wilson as mentioned before risked paralysis and was always hurt and it was a neck injury and really all he ever was was an athlete.

Lattimore? Maybe a hype prospect? Nothing more. Wasn't playing dynasty at the time but he never flashed like Foreman has.

Not really a Foreman truther, if he was I would be buying but this list really accomplishes nothing as a counter to my post. You completely miss my point or just spin it, one or the other. Point was that RBs have the shortest shelf life in the NFL at a mere 2.5 years. Quoting statistics such as 26% never return from this injury mislead bc while the average rb career is 2.5 years the average fantasy relevant rb is much longer. Foreman for instance enters year three next year while only having actually player half a year. I didnt refer to him as a "big name" but the fact is his draft spot andthe production he has accomplished is very different from the people who drag down the average of RB careers ... i feel like all of this should have been obvious and youare just spinning what I said

[themburns]

It's misleading to try to cite who has or hasn't come back from this injury or that "26%" never do. Why? Like others have said, not enough big names have had the injury and have not had it this young, so we don't know.

As with the statistics, according to the NFL Players Association the average career for an RB is 2.57 years in the NFL. And yet EVERY fantasy relevant RB, even third string guys stick around a lot longer than that, so when using blanket data to suggest whether a player will return or not is misleading.

Speculation injury blurbs are what has everyone scared without much more info or expertise than we have. Doubt I would sell for a second in a completely without hype 2019 class, and no one is giving a first, so he's a hold for me. If I'm buying, hmm maybe a 2nd in a league where I have no RBs but I would probably stay away. So if already invested, holding, if not invested, not buying.

What better indicator of return to play is there than the medical data I've provided? Even if the reported recovery rate due to medical science doubles, Foreman would still have a 1/8 chance of never playing again. I also think it's a lark to refer to D'Onta Foreman as a "big name". And with an occurance rate of like, three-four tears per year (edit: from 2011-2015, there were in total 46 Achilles tears, so nine per year over that span), you'll never be able to get a sample size that is scientific relevant, especially when you add semantic caveats like "they've got to have a big name". I guess that's your right as an owner, but please let me know when there are openings in your leagues.

And that's before we ask how much did he lose/how much did he ever have to begin with. And lmao @ EVERY fantasy relevant RB plays more than 2.5 years. Just looking back over the last five years, Tre Mason, Jonathan Franklin, David Wilson, Marcus Lattimore, Zac Stacy, Karlos Williams all looked very promising, and most produced more than Foreman ever did (at the college level in Lattimore and Franklin's case)

Lattimore? Maybe a hype prospect? Nothing more. Wasn't playing dynasty at the time but he never flashed like Foreman has.

Not really a Foreman truther,

The prosecution rests.

[_yeti]

Please rest. I rest on what I said. Good day

[_yeti]

The medical history is definitely something. You can't dismiss it completely. Whatever Foreman's upside was, it's definitely not the same on paper right now.

Agreed, as people have said earlier though, that's built into his value. He would be possibly starting and worth much more if he hadn't been hurt.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Why is anyone talking about Marcus Lattimore lmao... The guy was shocked he was even drafted.

[Vcize]

Listen, I know where most of you lie, I saw the months of Foreman hype on this board. I'm speaking to well, newer owners who might not remember guys like say, Marcus Lattimore or David Wilson. Despite the medical evidence pointing towards (different) career ending injuries, the market was irrational on them because of youth and the talent they had shown before. This is a warning. They still carried a name value. As the literature I pointed out indicates, linebackers and running backs have the worst return to play among those who suffered this injury.

By the same token everyone knew Frank Gore had blown out his knee 3 times in college, Willis McGahee was going to have to sit out his entire rookie year, and Nick Chubb had just as bad a knee injury as Lattimore.

If any of those guys busted you'd be listing them as examples of how "obvious" it was and how they should have been sold on name value. That's the danger of using hindsight. Can you imagine giving up 14 years of RB1/RB2 production to salvage a 3rd round pick out of Frank Gore's "name value"?

[_yeti]

Listen, I know where most of you lie, I saw the months of Foreman hype on this board. I'm speaking to well, newer owners who might not remember guys like say, Marcus Lattimore or David Wilson. Despite the medical evidence pointing towards (different) career ending injuries, the market was irrational on them because of youth and the talent they had shown before. This is a warning. They still carried a name value. As the literature I pointed out indicates, linebackers and running backs have the worst return to play among those who suffered this injury.

By the same token everyone knew Frank Gore had blown out his knee 3 times in college, Willis McGahee was going to have to sit out his entire rookie year, and Nick Chubb had just as bad a knee injury as Lattimore.

If any of those guys busted you'd be listing them as examples of how "obvious" it was and how they should have been sold on name value. That's the danger of using hindsight. Can you imagine giving up 14 years of RB1/RB2 production to salvage a 3rd round pick out of Frank Gore's "name value"?

Great point

[Cameron Giles]

Agreed, as people have said earlier though, that's built into his value. He would be possibly starting and worth much more if he hadn't been hurt.

Very true. I thought Foreman was playing well when he got injured. From what it sounds like though, he's not anywhere close to game shape and may not play much this season.

So, what are the chances he gains a significant role next season and Houston doesn't continue to roll with Lamar Miller as the starter?

[ericanadian]

Agreed, as people have said earlier though, that's built into his value. He would be possibly starting and worth much more if he hadn't been hurt.

Very true. I thought Foreman was playing well when he got injured. From what it sounds like though, he's not anywhere close to game shape and may not play much this season.

So, what are the chances he gains a significant role next season and Houston doesn't continue to roll with Lamar Miller as the starter?

Foreman was unlikely to be more than a two down back to start anyways, so I could see them bringing in a third down guy to replace Miller and giving Foreman a shot. If they think he’s a risk, they could bring in a two down guy like Darkwa or Blount to provide competition while he recovers. I think their draft/FA focus needs to be on their offensive line and defensive backfield.