Jags DST. What is going on!?

[Friction]

I prefer no defense or kickers in my leagues, but did manage to snag Seattle a year before they truly became elite in real life. For fantasy purposes, they may have been a set and forget type, but still did not generate a ton of fantasy points (if that makes sense). They were elite in points given up, yards, that kind of stuff and never lost you a week in getting 0 or negative. They did not seem to generate a ton of sacks, TO's, and scores though. At least in my leagues that luckily are not Fantasy Defense Leagues AKA leagues that award 2 pts per sack and crap like that.

[Space Cowboy]

Bad coaching. The unit is still #2 in the NFL in yards allowed, but they're not getting sacks and generating turnovers because Todd Wash is suddenly too passive a coordinator. And I suspect Marrone has something to do with it.

People don't appreciate that Gus Bradley built the Jax defense. Then Shahid Khan fired him the offseason before it all came together.

I think the D/ST will be better in '19. As you say, there's too much talent there for it not to be, and most of the unit's core is still young. Jags are 3-6 after going to the AFC title game last year, so hopefully this will lead to some coaching staff changes.

They added Buoye, Campbell, Jack and Barry Church after Bradley left. It's a totally different D.

[Space Cowboy]

Both the Jags are Niners are struggling to generate heat because both teams start 3 DTs on the dline. Campbell, Dareus and Jackson while the 9ers go with Armstead, Buckner and Mitchell.

[Servo]

The Bears finished 12th in 2016, 7th in 2017 and are currently 1st today.

I picked them up after them drafting Roquan, and then Mack happening was just a cherry on top. Hard to find consistency at the position:

Chiefs had a really good DST in 2015+2016, Broncos did in 2015+2016 as well. Maybe there's a 2-3 year window lol.

[joeya2001]

I think their defense will be better now that they have Fournette back.

They can score and eat up some clock with him to give the defense rest. They seem to play better when hes active.

[Vcize]

But truly elite defenses can be fairly predictable year to year.

I'd like you to find more than one team like this. Without even looking, I'm expecting you won't. I'll even let you go back using the past 30 years if you can find the data.

Well I don't even know where to find 30 years of team defense fantasy scoring data, lol. Using my league archives which go back to the early 2000's and have pretty much yahoo standard scoring for defenses...

The Bears had a stretch from 2010-2012 where they finished 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in consecutive years.

The Ravens had a 6 year stretch from 2002-2008 (the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed years) where they had finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 1st.

And of course the aforementioned Legion of Boom whose finishes I laid out on the last page.

You're right that it's rare, I never disagreed there, but the Jags weren't just one of those defenses that came out of nowhere and/or rode one guy's great season like Carolina, Denver, Arizona defenses that briefly flashed. People saw the young talent they were collecting and were anticipating the Jags D being the next big thing before it even happened. They were much more similar to those Seahawks/Ravens defenses where they had pro bowlers all over the field, most of whom were young and locked into long-term deals.

I still think they were worth a shot with all that said. As I said earlier, it's not like people were giving up a 1st round pick for them. In the discussion about their value last year it pretty much topped out at people arguing over whether or not a 3rd round pick was too much. That's going to be a dart throw either way.

ETA: Bucs also had a 3 year top 3 run in early 2000's but my data cuts off before I can see if it goes back any further.

[joeya2001]

But truly elite defenses can be fairly predictable year to year.

I'd like you to find more than one team like this. Without even looking, I'm expecting you won't. I'll even let you go back using the past 30 years if you can find the data.

Well I don't even know where to find 30 years of team defense fantasy scoring data, lol. Using my league archives which go back to the early 2000's and have pretty much yahoo standard scoring for defenses...

The Bears had a stretch from 2010-2012 where they finished 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in consecutive years.

The Ravens had a 6 year stretch from 2002-2008 (the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed years) where they had finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 1st.

And of course the aforementioned Legion of Boom whose finishes I laid out on the last page.

You're right that it's rare, I never disagreed there, but the Jags weren't just one of those defenses that came out of nowhere and/or rode one guy's great season like Carolina, Denver, Arizona defenses that briefly flashed. People saw the young talent they were collecting and were anticipating the Jags D being the next big thing before it even happened. They were much more similar to those Seahawks/Ravens defenses where they had pro bowlers all over the field, most of whom were young and locked into long-term deals.

I still think they were worth a shot with all that said. As I said earlier, it's not like people were giving up a 1st round pick for them. In the discussion about their value last year it pretty much topped out at people arguing over whether or not a 3rd round pick was too much. That's going to be a dart throw either way.

ETA: Bucs also had a 3 year top 3 run in early 2000's but my data cuts off before I can see if it goes back any further.

Maybe not FF scoring but you can use this to look at history

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats? ... 447263-n=1

[DJB]

You got sucked in to the vicious lie that defenses are predictable year to year. Never, ever invest in a defense. You're just as well off picking one from waivers.

I think i read but maybe im wrong that no DST has ever finished top 5 in back to back years outside of the Seahawks a few years ago.

[Vcize]

You got sucked in to the vicious lie that defenses are predictable year to year. Never, ever invest in a defense. You're just as well off picking one from waivers.

I think i read but maybe im wrong that no DST has ever finished top 5 in back to back years outside of the Seahawks a few years ago.

Yeah that is way way wrong.

[Krypto_King]

sacks are a QB stat. You stream defenses like all other onesie positions.

[skip]

But truly elite defenses can be fairly predictable year to year.

I'd like you to find more than one team like this. Without even looking, I'm expecting you won't. I'll even let you go back using the past 30 years if you can find the data.

Well I don't even know where to find 30 years of team defense fantasy scoring data, lol. Using my league archives which go back to the early 2000's and have pretty much yahoo standard scoring for defenses...

The Bears had a stretch from 2010-2012 where they finished 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in consecutive years.

The Ravens had a 6 year stretch from 2002-2008 (the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed years) where they had finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 1st.

And of course the aforementioned Legion of Boom whose finishes I laid out on the last page.

You're right that it's rare, I never disagreed there, but the Jags weren't just one of those defenses that came out of nowhere and/or rode one guy's great season like Carolina, Denver, Arizona defenses that briefly flashed. People saw the young talent they were collecting and were anticipating the Jags D being the next big thing before it even happened. They were much more similar to those Seahawks/Ravens defenses where they had pro bowlers all over the field, most of whom were young and locked into long-term deals.

I still think they were worth a shot with all that said. As I said earlier, it's not like people were giving up a 1st round pick for them. In the discussion about their value last year it pretty much topped out at people arguing over whether or not a 3rd round pick was too much. That's going to be a dart throw either way.

ETA: Bucs also had a 3 year top 3 run in early 2000's but my data cuts off before I can see if it goes back any further.

There were several discussions last season and even a couple over the off season where owners were trading 2nd round picks for the Jaguars. And I'd argue that they actually did "come out of nowhere" from a fantasy standpoint since they were a bottom feeder the year prior.

Fwiw, only reason I used the 30 year mark is because that was when I started playing fantasy football (1989) and learned very quickly how fast defenses come and go. In 2007 the Bears and Ravens were so lauded that they went in the 7th round of a dynasty startup that I was in. It's funny you mention the Bears in 2010 because they found themselves sitting in the waiver wire in that same league by 2009 they were so bad.

There may be a small amount of predictability year to year but consider the Jaguars... You will find that a LOT of people all over the place praised them as the defense to own this season. The fact that they aren't really just underscores the entire discussion. When I played in leagues that used team defense, there was always (at least) one on waivers at the start of the season that finished in the top 10.

[bjd5211]

Honestly I don't think they "came out of nowhere" I thought 2 years ago they had the makings of a potentially amazing defense, but I did think Fowler would be a big part of the reason why so I wasn't entirely right about them. I wish I had followed my gut and picked them up when they "sucked" on some my teams that were a year away from competing. The defense I look at the same way now is the Cleveland Browns, they have a ton of young talent now, potentially a strong running game to keep them fresh, and I am dying for them to get Ed Oliver in the draft.

[metalmat]

In 2017 they faced a bunch of backup QBs, mediocre to trash offenses and had the easiest schedule in the NFL.

[clarion contrarion]

timed the market perfectly - acquired everywhere prior to 2017 - traded everywhere this year for bolts bears & steelers - mostly due to the fact that I didn't like the soaring opinion most people had of their alleged potential .........inside and outside their building . Two in a startup jags were
1st defense to go in the auction for like 12$ - hilarious amount for a defense . My thoughts were people were delusional and like any asset time to sell is when the market has peaked . Very hard to time obviously - results may vary!

That said - I really hope it takes at least 1 more week for them to find their 2017 potential .

[joeya2001]

Honestly I don't think they "came out of nowhere" I thought 2 years ago they had the makings of a potentially amazing defense, but I did think Fowler would be a big part of the reason why so I wasn't entirely right about them. I wish I had followed my gut and picked them up when they "sucked" on some my teams that were a year away from competing. The defense I look at the same way now is the Cleveland Browns, they have a ton of young talent now, potentially a strong running game to keep them fresh, and I am dying for them to get Ed Oliver in the draft.

I'm with you on the Browns, I'm debating on picking them up and holding.