Jags DST. What is going on!?

[MrUbuto]

I went all in on the jags D this year and they have been absolute crap.

I honestly haven't watch a ton of games, is there anyone a little closer to it that can shed some light on what the heck is going on?

There is so much raw talent there

[ninotoreS]

Bad coaching. The unit is still #2 in the NFL in yards allowed, but they're not getting sacks and generating turnovers because Todd Wash is suddenly too passive a coordinator. And I suspect Marrone has something to do with it.

People don't appreciate that Gus Bradley built the Jax defense. Then Shahid Khan fired him the offseason before it all came together.

I think the D/ST will be better in '19. As you say, there's too much talent there for it not to be, and most of the unit's core is still young. Jags are 3-6 after going to the AFC title game last year, so hopefully this will lead to some coaching staff changes.

[Krypto_King]

Why are they worse? Sure, here you go:
Tom Savage/Watson
Mariota
Flacco/Mallet
McCown
Ben
Goff
Brissett
Dalton
Rivers
Kizer
Gabbert
Brissett
Russell Wilson
Yates
Jimmy G
Mariota

This is the trash bin they faced last year. Maybe 6-7 real QBs

This year they have faced Eli, Brady, Mariota, Darnold, Mahomes, Dak, Watson, Wentz, Luck

[skip]

You got sucked in to the vicious lie that defenses are predictable year to year. Never, ever invest in a defense. You're just as well off picking one from waivers.

[MrUbuto]

Yea damn. I really had high Hope's for them. They weren't just good last year they were near record breakingly dominant.

Guess @krypto_king makes a good point. That 2017 schedule was a lot softer

[ninotoreS]

This year they have faced Eli, Brady, Mariota, Darnold, Mahomes, Dak, Watson, Wentz, Luck

And they're still elite in net yards allowed. Not much change there from last year. They're also #6 in DVOA.

Like I said before you, it's down to turnovers and sacks. They're not getting them this year. When a defense is stingy with yards but isn't getting the other statistics, it's usually because the coordinator is losing the chess game every week.

Jags defense is as great as last year at reacting to the ball and making the tackle, but they're not anticipating plays and making lethal adjustments pre-snap and mid-game to exploit identified weaknesses and tells. That's on the coaching.

[skip]

Like I said before you, it's down to turnovers and sacks. They're not getting them this year.

The only defensive stat that I found might correlate year to year and even then there was quite a bit of variation was sacks. Generally if you picked a high sack team from the year prior you would have at least an above average option. But that was it. I'm not sure that even has a statistical basis.

[mild]

Some great points already, I think something that has made sense to me as well when watching this Jags D is that they now have notable weaknesses in attackable matchups. They let Aaron Colvin go, who was a top-graded slot corner. They also had really good luck with injuries in their secondary last year, this year has been far more difficult.

The problem with a defense maintaining its dominance season to season is that it is the sum of it's 11+ parts (AND coaching AND luck/variance), as opposed to all the other offensive players we roster who are single-share units and measurable. Really, the best you can hope for is to roster a team with a strong historical defensive identity (ie Ravens, Seahawks, Rams, Steelers, etc) and hope to cash in on good defensive coaching / playcalling and talent.

[Friction]

Defenses are tough to predict and this year there seems to be none that sticks out as reliable. Sure, certain teams will beat up on the poor offenses when they have home games, but who can you really trust week in and out? I usually stream and rarely like to start a team on the road. The Bears have shown some promise, but not sure who else.

[heyfeefellskee]

I went all in on the jags D this year and they have been absolute crap.

I honestly haven't watch a ton of games, is there anyone a little closer to it that can shed some light on what the heck is going on?

There is so much raw talent there

Quick question...

Do you mean that you went all-in on the IDPs on the Jags, or on the Jags DST position? If it's the latter, idk what to tell you... besides hopefully you learned that DST isn't a good dynasty investment.

In terms of their real-life issues, you've got a couple of factors in play. Offensive production is exploding this year--in part due to the various rule changes that have been made, as well as in part to coaches getting smarter and implementing more creative offensive schemes. Sure, you still have guys like Hackett or Schottenheimer wanting to establish the run (and having some success at it, I guess ), but you also have guys like McCoy and Haley that are getting canned for insisting on sticking to schemes that the opponents can easily figure out and/or defend (looking at Dirk Koetter).

The other issue that cannot be ignored is the dissent among the team right now--especially on defense. Once issues in the locker room start to emerge, they need to be handled quickly.... and I'm pretty sure trading away a player or two doesn't solve it. It's a culture that's being enabled by people higher up *cough*.

[thebeast]

DST has no place in a dynasty league. Frankly I don’t even like them in seasonal leagues and I’m thrilled FanDuel wised yo and got rid of the position. FF is supposed to be a game of skill and DSTs and Kickers make it a lot more dependent on luck.

[Cameron Giles]

Lack of turnovers and they're not facing a garbage QB every other week. They're still a good defense, but last year was a perfect storm. Investing in DSTs isn't smart in dynasty, since luck is a noticeable element of it and it depends on the schedule.

[bjd5211]

Always happens with Defenses and they are not worth investing in long-term. Trade for them in their hot year to make a run at a title that year, but thinking you have a set it and forget it D for years to come is a mistake same with Kickers (except Tucker), just too unpredictable.

[Vcize]

You got sucked in to the vicious lie that defenses are predictable year to year. Never, ever invest in a defense. You're just as well off picking one from waivers.

Everyone says this, and it's generally true for good and even very good defenses. But truly elite defenses can be fairly predictable year to year.

Seattle was a top 5 defense for 6 out of 7 years between 2011-2017. 4 of those years they were top 3 and their worst finish was #9.

While rare, I think a lot of people saw a lot of parallels in the Jax defense to that one. Truly elite both NFL and fantasy play with a lot of young stud players signed long-term. Obviously it hasn't come together but at the cost (most had them around a 3rd round rookie pick when the discussion came up last year) I think it was a worthwhile gamble because if you do find that rare gem like Seattle then you are the one team in the whole league with a steady defense year to year, which is a pretty large advantage.

[skip]

But truly elite defenses can be fairly predictable year to year.

I'd like you to find more than one team like this. Without even looking, I'm expecting you won't. I'll even let you go back using the past 30 years if you can find the data.