Julio Jones production is stupid

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Mjvb5
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Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby Mjvb5 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:03 am

Dude has over 700 yards in 6 games. His current season long pace is 117-1,885-0. Yes you read those second two numbers right... Through six games he's pacing the 2nd best season in terms of yardage ever, beating his own 2015 campaign and yet he hasn't scored. Can someone please help explain this to me, I don't watch ATL games, does Ryan not throw it to him? Is he just not good in the red zone? Is Sark just bad? Or does he ball out so much on the way over there he's tired by the time there in the RZ?
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby joeya2001 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:10 am

Jones said TD's are overrated, Chicks dig the Yardage!
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby Mjvb5 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:14 am

joeya2001 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:10 am
Jones said TD's are overrated, Chicks dig the Yardage!
I love it
additional note- Julio has produced 37.5% of the teams receiving yards and 30% of there total yardage for the #8 scoring offense, averaging about 28ppg
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby Friction » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:09 am

To answer your questions in order: yes, no, yes, kind of/maybe.
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:17 am

I wonder if there are any sites / venues offering a prop bet on whether Julio will score a single TD this season. If so, I'd imagine the odds are tremendous, probably -1500 yes he scores.
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby rubber_duck » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:21 pm

Julio has been great at moving down field and poor at scoring for several years. Looking at his TD/Reception rate:

2018 0/44
2017 3/88 or 1 TD per 29 catches
13 - 16 22/364 or 1 TD per 16.5 catches

For comparison, AJ Green scores approximately 1 TD per 9 receptions.

Why? Maybe he goes down too easily and that prevents many YAC type of TDs. Also, it may be that his short field routes just aren't very good. Or, maybe the DC's of the league have decided that the way to beat the Falcons is to completely lock-down Julio in the red zone?

I don't know. But this has been a long term thing, and it got worse in 2017. It is remarkable that his TD rate took another step down this year.

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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby BigBawseRoss » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:25 pm

julio is no good in the red zone, thats all
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby Phaded » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:22 pm

He basically always gets doubled in the red zone and is often doubled outside of it.

Targeting anyone in double coverage is risky. Probably even riskier in the red zone.

Many of the players who do a lot of red zone damage have the benefit of one-on-one looks.

Matt Ryan is also not great.

This pace is pretty surprising, though.
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby Mefisto » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm

Phaded is spot on. It's not that he's bad in the red zone, per se. It's that he's always focused on in the red zone by defenses. I remember that first Thursday night game of this season with the Falcons in the red zone. He was always double covered. Ryan was still trying to force him the ball but his throws were either completely uncatchable or swatted away by the 2+ defenders around him at all times. And there's a lot less room in the red/end zones so it's easier for defenders than in the open field.
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby Friction » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:51 pm

Valid points, but it has to be mostly coaching and Ryan, right? Hopkins scores in the red zone, AJ Green does, OBJ, etc. Could defenses not just do the same to those types of receivers in the RZ? Its definitely an interesting phenomena.
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:32 pm

Mjvb5 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:03 am
Dude has over 700 yards in 6 games. His current season long pace is 117-1,885-0. Yes you read those second two numbers right...
He's no Adam Thielen (on pace for 1899 yards).
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Re: Julio Jones production is stupid

Postby Phaded » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:13 pm

Friction wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:51 pm
Valid points, but it has to be mostly coaching and Ryan, right? Hopkins scores in the red zone, AJ Green does, OBJ, etc. Could defenses not just do the same to those types of receivers in the RZ? Its definitely an interesting phenomena.
Sometimes you need to get creative with schemes and formations to allow your studs to be able to get lined up one & one..

Unfortunately - the Falcons offense is very much lacking any creativity despite being high scoring right now.
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