Thoughts on Keenan Allen

[Shcritters]

I was super hopeful on him this year (even though I own him nowhere) but have been surprised by his numbers so far. With Gordon punching everything in front short and MWilliams and TWilliams taking the top off of defenses that really only leaves the short to medium routes for him, and as has been stated earlier he just hasn’t scored many TDs. With Henry coming back next year I’m concerned this isn’t an anomaly.

[Easy Breesy]

As an owner of him in an orphan im hoping he has a 2 or 3 game stretch similar to what he did 2nd half last year and I'm gonna try to sell for another young wr and rb if I can

[grandmabetty]

Just traded Allen for evans straight up. Helps me that Allen is on bye this week. I'm really not a huge fan of Evans but I think he will finish better than Allen this year. I like that he doesn't have the same injury history either. They are the same age. Long term value? Who knows. Probably a wash in terms of value

[dvpkwys]

I have had Rivers for years in my main dynasty league, so I have always liked Allen, but never have owned him. His injuries have scared me off to be honest. I also have good WR's so I wasn't looking to deal for him. I got him in a few redraft leagues with high expectations, but as mentioned in the thread, it just seems like there are too many mouths to feed. I just traded him with Tevlin Coleman for CMC/Golladay. I'm happy.

[Life of Pablo]

Through 6 games this year: 36/434/1 (51 targets)
Through 6 games last year: 33/446/1 (61 targets)

Certainly seems like a great buy if people are disappointed in the touchdown numbers or the decrease in volume. But, every season is different.

Keenan has never been much of a TD threat. His production comes with target volume. His ypr was also abnormally high last year.

FYI, last year he was 2nd in the league in targets for both plays inside the 20 (24 tgt's) AND plays inside the 10 (15 tgt's). Sadly he only had 4 TD's to show from those targets - the other 9 players with 20+ targets inside the 20 all had at least 5 TD's. This year though Keenan is much further down the list of target leaders, with only 5 and 3 targets so far in those respective categories (ranked somewhere in the 40's-50's in both).

I think a lot of that has to do with their increased usage of RB's in the offense this year (as others have pointed out), but possibly also because of Keenan's own lack of success in the red zone last year. Unfortunately I have no idea on the quality of those targets last year and if that adds any context. He did throw a fit when Rivers didn't go his way in the end zone last week, so maybe that will create a spark? Idk, just crossing my fingers on that one.

2017 red zone receiving stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... eiving.htm
2018 red zone receiving stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... eiving.htm

[Fantasyfanatic11]

He looked frustrated last game with Rivers not looking his way as often as he would like.

I expect a big 2nd half from Keenan.

[jenkins.math]

He is a solid WR2. It was his 2nd half last season that had everyone excited and people tried to put him in the same category as the super elite guys. He was just overhyped to start the season.

[Life of Pablo]

He is a solid WR2. It was his 2nd half last season that had everyone excited and people tried to put him in the same category as the super elite guys. He was just overhyped to start the season.

Strongly disagree, that sounds like recency bias. He's had plenty of great performances throughout his career and has one of the most consistent floors that few WRs can touch. He was balling out the first half of 2015 before his injury (on pace for 134-1450-8 through 7.5 games), then looked great again in the first 30 minutes of 2016 (lol), putting up 6-63 in the first half before another heartbreaking injury. Looked great a third time last year with the 2nd half explosion resulting in a 102-1393-6 season. 7+ targets in all but 5 of his last 32 games (with 2 of them being literally his last two games, with 6 and 5), with an average of 9.7 targets/game. Averaging 84.0 yards/game in those same games.

You can argue his fantasy situation isn't the best right now with Rivers spreading the ball and Gordon/Ekeler getting lots of usage. But in terms of real-life football I still think he's absolutely a top 10 WR and it shows on tape.

[TB3falcons]

The offense is too potent, Rivers doesn’t need to force feed Allen the ball when there are so many options. Allen was always a volume guy, he’s still Uber talented, just not getting the targets.