Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

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jgoodie24
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Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby jgoodie24 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:32 pm

Just curious, has anyone else noticed a sharp uptick in fantasy scoring from last year to this year without any major rules changes to their league? I just did the math for my league. Last year, the average weekly team score was 115. This year it's 128 - a 12% jump year over year.

Does it just come down to defense in the NFL being an endangered species?
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starts 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te, 1 flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K
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QB: T. Brady, J. Garoppolo
RB: D. Singletary, D. Swift, CEH, J. Cook, J. Warren, J. McKinnon
WR: C. Kupp, T. Higgins, K. Allen, DeVonta Smith, G. Davis, A-R St. Brown, A. Pierce
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K: T. Bass, B. Maher
D/ST: Pit, Ind, LAR
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dynastyninja
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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:56 pm

It's surprising. I really thought the NFL was trending towards better defenses forcing more teams to run the ball a lot and throw a lot of quick passes to keep moving the ball. Things have started to level out a little bit, but scoring is still noticeably up.

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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:01 pm

Yes, but scoring last year was also way down compared to 2016 in my main league and we have made no scoring changes.

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jeffster
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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby jeffster » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:11 am

I actually just wrote this in a summary to the league I commish for, comparing this year to last. The fourth place team this year has more total points than the first place team last year, at this point in the season.

Guess it's the year if the offense!

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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:41 am

This year is pretty nuts. The weekly scoring record was broken in my 1st league and the starters weren't even that special haha

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Vcize
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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby Vcize » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:10 am

Tons more scoring in the NFL than last year.

QB1 last year at this time would be QB6 this year. RB1 last year would be RB6 this year. WR2 last year would be WR15 (!!) this year.

Only TE scoring is on par between the two years.
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QB: Herbert, Brady
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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby nyterp » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:48 am

Yes, but as previously mentioned, last year was way down. I did an analysis of the last five years in my one IDP league, and offensive scoring was increasing slowly until last year when it dipped, so that is the actual outlier, not this year.
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Life of Pablo
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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby Life of Pablo » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:29 am

Yep. Average scoring in my 5-year old league (settings in sig):

2014 - 98.9 pts/game
2015 - 95.7
2016 - 95.9
2017 - 89.9 :crazy:
2018 - 102.3 (so far)
10-team standard, 18-man rosters (plus K/D + 1 IR + 2 TAXI)
1QB | 2RB | 2WR | 1TE | 1FLEX
2021: 8-6, 5th (AP: 76-50 / 60.3%, 3rd) ||| Runner-up
2022: 5-1, 2nd (AP: 47-7 / 87.0%, 1st)

QB: Hurts, Russ, Carr
RB: Chubb, Pierce, Swift, JRob, D'Ernest, Ford
WR: Diggs, Evans, GDavis, Nuk, Keenan, Hollywood, Mooney, CSamuel, Doubs
TE: Kelce, Dulcich, Fant
2023 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2024 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:16 am

It's no surprise given how the league's rules are trending. CBs basically can't touch WRs until after they catch the ball, and teams are getting smarter using analytics and spread concepts to pass more.
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WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk
TE: George Kittle, Travis Kelce | K: Younghoe Koo | DST: SF
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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby kamihamster » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:05 pm

2015: avg 136.13, avg HS 179.26, avg LS 91.82
2016: 137.0, 181.48, 87.56
2017: 128.57, 168.84, 86.9
2018: 143.0, 191.0, 97.0

for my home league
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby Mjvb5 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:13 pm

Up a little from average, makes sense due to the QB hitting rule changes, additionally as the year goes on typically scoring goes down as injuries pile up(esp QBs as they can tank an offense) and teams shift to committees to preserve guys or replace them, It's gonna still be high, but I expect a minor regression as the year drags on.

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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby eNdblu » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:10 pm

Screen Shot 2018-10-17 at 1.01.32 PM.png
Screen Shot 2018-10-17 at 1.01.32 PM.png (30.12 KiB) Viewed 227 times
7 of the 10 highest scoring teams thru 6 weeks are currently being set this year for the league w/ Team 1. No changes were made to league scoring.
16tm SC w/ tiered PPR (0.25/0.5/1.0) 1QB 1RB 1WR 1TE 3FLX
QB - Burrow(2), Tannehill(1)
RB - Taylor(2), Williams(3), Gibson(2), Dillon(2)
WR - Godwin(5), Metcalf(1), Pittman(2), Mingo(5), Boutte(5), Metchie(4), Renfrow(1), Mims(3)
TE - Kelce(1), Pitts(3), Kincaid(5), Njoku(3), Gesicki(5), Thomas[WSH](2)

16tm TE PPR Prem 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2OFLX 1DL 2LB 1DB 1DFLX
QB - Murray, Winston
RB - CEH, Penny, Sanders, Mattison, Wilson
WR - Hill, McLaurin, Jeudy, JuJu, Ridley, Edwards, Ruggs
TE - Goedert, Johnson[NOS]
DL - Young LB - Kirksey, Tranquill, Walker[GB], Walker[ATL] DB - Sneed

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DLF3000
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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby DLF3000 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:40 pm

Well the penalties protecting (mainly) offensive players are all adding up.

They swung hard on those penalties this year after last year's slight downturn in offense.

You can't score points (and ratings and sales) if your quality QBs and playmakers are all broken.

Some plays are embarrassing to watch now if you're even a modest fan of defense. The "don't hurt 'em sacks" are the worst offenders (e.g. the almost-Brady-sack this past weekend).
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Start 12: 1QB 1SFLX 2RB 4WR 2TE 2FLX | 30 Active Roster, unlim Taxi, 3 IR/Out (+) | est. '21 | playoffs '21, '22

QB - J Allen, T Lawrence ...
RB - A Ekeler, S Barkley, J Cook, I Pacheco ...
WR - AJ Brown, C Ridley, G Pickens, C Sutton ...
TE - D Njoku, D Knox ...
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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby Phaded » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:21 pm

It is not surprising that the game is evolving into this with the new rules..

Personally.. I miss those good defensive battles.

...they just do not happen anymore, maybe I am an oldman but hearing all these youngins talk about these shootouts as the most exciting games ever makes me sad.

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Re: Sharp uptick in scoring 2018 vs 2017?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:29 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:16 am It's no surprise given how the league's rules are trending. CBs basically can't touch WRs until after they catch the ball, and teams are getting smarter using analytics and spread concepts to pass more.
Bingo. And they got rid of the whole "complete the process" catch rule. The ball can hit the ground but you just have to maintain control of it while it does. And the football move you make after catching the ball isn't as lengthy.

Add on more teams running 3WR sets, spread offenses and defenders still adapting to the new hit rules on QB's and numbers are higher than they've ever been.


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