Ebron value

[Jfever]

Jenkins.math, I see your take. I understand where your coming from. In this instance, I spose you are a bit more glass half empty, where I see this as glass half full. Your right, it could go south and this approach is more like chess than checkers. Ebron seems to be precisely what the Colts offense wanted. A mismatch TE to complement an otherwise weak receiving corp. The colts have a very weak run game and not one single legit wr outside of Hilton. I see Ebron as a better athlete and potential mismatch than Doyle. Doyle may be a slightly better at some areas of the TE game, but as far as size,speed, and receiving chops, - I'd give the edge to Ebron. The financial side of it is a concern as I'm not familiar with the Colts position with salary and I don't know personally what their long term plans are. Realistically, Ebron could quite easily finish the season as a top 5-7 TE. The TE position right now in the NFL is as top heavy, shallow and weak as I can recall it being.

Ebron, right now is in the top tier and he is young and paired with a very good passing qb without a lot of competition for targets, but, because TE is so system dependent, if the Colts cut ties for whatever reason, there are no guarantees that his production will follow him to his next job.

ArrylT - my apologizes for the misspelling of your handle. # why so difficult? lol

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Ebron was playing less than half the snaps when Doyle was healthy. I have a really hard time trusting his production to last once Doyle gets back unless that snap count goes up.
If you're rebuilding, I say try to sell for Howard/ Njoku/ Engram/ Kittle/ Henry types. TEs that aren't great in the red zone and aren't good enough blockers to stay on the field are kind of like receiving RBs in PPR. They can have a great year when things break right, but it's rare they hold value season over season.

[ArrylT]

The good news for Ebron sellers is he is playing this week after being questionable

[slaughterrt]

And he continues to produce.

[jenkins.math]

And he continues to produce.

And Jack Doyle continues to be out.

[JBurn244]

Bookmarking this thread to check back when Ebron posts his patented 2 catch, 13 yard effort.

[btv802]

Bookmarking this thread to check back when Ebron posts his patented 2 catch, 13 yard effort.

Lol, name one top 12 TE that hasn't had one of these types of games this year.

[btv802]

With the way Ebron is scoring, I would think the Colts will employ more two tight end sets with Ebron in the slot when Doyle returns. Not sure why you'd shelve Luck's best TD weapon so far this season. Get them both on the field and let them each do what they do best. With Ebron it's creating mismatches, stretching the field and (apparently now) scoring TDs. In Doyle's case it's generally catching short chain moving passes and blocking.

[remedy29]

Bookmarking this thread to check back when Ebron posts his patented 2 catch, 13 yard effort.

Lol, name one top 12 TE that hasn't had one of these types of games this year.

Thought the same thing. Funny thing is, IF Ebron did his "patented" 2 catch, 13 yard effort for the remainder of the season, he STILL likely finish as a top 12 TE. Just proves how awesome he has been for a typically weak scoring position.

The Ebron haters are already proven wrong, yet they continue to hate.

[btv802]

The Ebron haters are already proven wrong, yet they continue to hate.

There are reasons to be skeptical about the sustainability of what he's doing...however averaging a TD per game through six games and apparently doing it while playing through a litany of injuries deserves a basic level of respect.

[ArrylT]

I did some number crunching privately and even giving an absolute worst case scenario - like the Colts passing well below Lucks career average of 36 attempts per game and Ebron getting less than 13% target share - he still finished as a TE1 overall and a TE2 with TE1 upside on a week by week basis.

Btw one thing people may forget is Doyles big season came not with Luck at the helm, but Brissett. In 2016 Doyle had Allen & Swoope take 13.5% target share while he had about 13.5% himself. In 2017 - no Allen (Patriots) or Swoope (IR).

Allen/Swoope in 2016 went 50-700-7 combined. Doyle went 60-584-5

If we only go by the games where Ebron & Doyle played together - Ebron was still on a pace for 56-600-7 (I gave him 1 TD every 3 games) which is 160 points and in line for TE7-10 range on any given year. Guess where Ebron was ranked after 2 games - TE7,

Even if we drop Ebron to a ppg pace below what he was averaging with Doyle (13 ppg) like say 10 ppg, that is still in line with low end TE1 high end TE2 production.

Basically (imo)

absolute worst case scenario - 8 ppg going forward - Colts massively decrease attempts and Ebron share drops below what is normal

conservative scenario - 10 ppg going forward - Colts fall back to Lucks norms, and Ebron keeps 13% share

projected scenario - 12 ppg going forward - same as conservative but with Ebron at 15% or less TD regression or higher target volume (not share %) due to Colts maintaining more of a 40 apg pace

optimistic scenario - 14 ppg going forward - Ebron maintains 15-18% target share & Colts maintain higher than average 40+ apg.

[btv802]

I did some number crunching

This all sounds good to me. Baked into all of this should be the unlikely but possible scenario that Doyle does not come back this year at all.

[BigBawseRoss]

Ebron is legit. i would hold as a rebuild or contender

[remedy29]

Fun facts (1 pt PPR):

Ebron is #1 TE over the last 10 NFL games.
2017 Ebron finished 13th TE. Weeks 8-17, #6 TE.
2017, fantasy playoffs weeks 14-16, Ebron #1 TE.
2016 Ebron finished #14 TE, while missing 2 games. Week 8 -17, #9 TE.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Bookmarking this thread to check back when Ebron posts his patented 2 catch, 13 yard effort.

Lol, name one top 12 TE that hasn't had one of these types of games this year.

The Ebron haters are already proven wrong, yet they continue to hate.

Dude, I love him in DFS and never said he wouldn't produce with Hilton and Doyle out. That doesn't mean I am wrong for doubting he can hold long-term value in dynasty.