Ebron value

[Jigga94]

To play devil's advocate... 41% of his season has been from 2 major weeks. If you think he scores 18 TD though...

If he wasnt in a TEBC I'd be all for crowning him. Everything else is there to make him a top tier TE. Just wish they didn't use Doyle and Swoope as much

[Cameron Giles]

But, snap count doesn't equal points. So, there is that. Luck looks to Ebron and finds ways to Target him and or get him the ball in the red zone. That has to count for something. The Colts are doing a good job of keeping opposing defenses off balance and confused. The difference in snap count is crazy though. My thoughts are that they look to Doyle more as a blocker and a versital all around player, and Ebron as a miss match receiving threat, since they have so little depth at wr. Man, if Doyle wasn't there though... Ebron's perceved value would skyrocket. I agree.

The more you're on the field, the more opportunities you have to earn points. Otherwise, low snap count + high amount of touchdowns is a classic recipe for regression. TD's are unpredictable year to year.

I agree with you that they're doing a great job of using him. He's looked good. But, I don't think I'd pay Top-5 TE prices for him until he was playing a legitimate starter role.

[btv802]

But, snap count doesn't equal points. So, there is that. Luck looks to Ebron and finds ways to Target him and or get him the ball in the red zone. That has to count for something. The Colts are doing a good job of keeping opposing defenses off balance and confused. The difference in snap count is crazy though. My thoughts are that they look to Doyle more as a blocker and a versital all around player, and Ebron as a miss match receiving threat, since they have so little depth at wr. Man, if Doyle wasn't there though... Ebron's perceved value would skyrocket. I agree.

The more you're on the field, the more opportunities you have to earn points. Otherwise, low snap count + high amount of touchdowns is a classic recipe for regression. TD's are unpredictable year to year.

I agree with you that they're doing a great job of using him. He's looked good. But, I don't think I'd pay Top-5 TE prices for him until he was playing a legitimate starter role.

He's a top 10 TE for me in dynasty pretty easily. Where exactly I place him is hard to say but that's roughly where I was with him before the Colts and it hasn't changed much. He was a TE1 last year in Detroit at the age of 24 and he had been trending up just about every year since his rookie season. We are supposed to be patient on young TEs right? He's the same age as Kittle and only a year older than Engram. I hesitate to place him top 5 because there are a LOT of young talented TEs in the league now. It's tough for me to separate them.

Where I've changed is that the difference in "dynasty value" between him and the Njoku, Henry, Engram, Howard types is pretty marginal for me at this point. I think I'd prefer most of those guys long term, but as long as he's producing like this I wouldn't add much on top of Ebron to get them. His situation seems great for scoring and there is something to be said about that. If he isn't a Colt long term he's still very young and having a very solid audition for other NFL teams that need a dynamic receiving threat at TE position. The Colts do have a ton of cap space and if they extended him beyond 2019 I wouldn't be surprised though. That's where I'm at.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

This is a TE who is on pace for 800-900 yards and 18 TD. This pace had held true through 9 games so it's not one of those stats from 2 games projected through 16 type of things. He is also only 25 years old. He is also on a team whose offense revolves around the TE with one of the best QB's in the game, who also historically loves him some TE's. If his name was any name other than Eric Ebron, this young TE would be considered a top 3 dynasty tight end moving forward without much debate lol.

Update?

I'm actually just bumping because I need a good week from him in redraft and whoever comes in chest-thumping after a great/bad week seems to get burned the following week

[btv802]

I'm actually just bumping because I need a good week from him in redraft and whoever comes in chest-thumping after a great/bad week seems to get burned the following week

Lol, he got blanked on the scoreboard but basically every TE besides Kelce and Ertz has had a quiet week or two this season. If we are doing the "Ebron vs Burton" thing...Burton caught his one target for 9 yards, so

Sidenote, unless you've been holding Ebron for years you likely got him cheaper than the Burton owner who bought him as a hyped free agent this offseason or even worse after he signed his big deal with the Bears.

[Jfever]

Dang, the TE landscape is in shambles this year. If nothing else, Ebron receives credit for remaining healthy.

[btv802]

Dang, the TE landscape is in shambles this year. If nothing else, Ebron receives credit for remaining healthy.

He was actually playing through a number of injuries during the stretch with Doyle out, so extra credit!

[btv802]

[Jfever]

The frustrations of a TD dependent TE... Last week I start him over Engram,and he gives me a 0. This week though... I stick with Ebron as Engram has last min hammy issue and... 20 + points. I'll take it but, I'd rather have some consistency. Not to be too nitpicky.

[btv802]

The frustrations of a TD dependent TE... Last week I start him over Engram,and he gives me a 0. This week though... I stick with Ebron as Engram has last min hammy issue and... 20 + points. I'll take it but, I'd rather have some consistency. Not to be too nitpicky.

I started Njoku over him this week...not disappointed in Njoku's week, but yeah.

My trade deadline is start of week 13 and I am out of playoffs, so I have decisions to make...trying to figure out what to make of this guy and really nail down fair value to make selling him worth it. Only 25 years old and just solidified himself as the TE3 this season through week 12. Is it possible that his value really isn't trending up this offseason?

[ArrylT]

There are enough owners previously frustrated by Ebron and/or Doyle owners that if he sticks in Indy in 2019 I would not be surprised if his consensus value stays plateaued. TD Regression concerns + all the TEs being 'healthy' again in the off-season will be a part of that as well. Which if you are an Ebron owner should be fine, since you're likely holding - and if you're looking to buy Ebron should be fine as well since his market price may not rise much, if at all. But we shall see!

[ArrylT]

Also, with 5 games left, there is an outside chance Ebron can at least tie Gronkowskis TD record of 17.

[btv802]

There are enough owners previously frustrated by Ebron and/or Doyle owners that if he sticks in Indy in 2019 I would not be surprised if his consensus value stays plateaued. TD Regression concerns + all the TEs being 'healthy' again in the off-season will be a part of that as well. Which if you are an Ebron owner should be fine, since you're likely holding - and if you're looking to buy Ebron should be fine as well since his market price may not rise much, if at all. But we shall see!

I don't have a ton of argument against anything you just said...still though, he's on fire in a very good offense right now. As an Ebron owner who is out of the playoffs and who has some TE depth...what price am I selling and what price am I holding at right now?

[ArrylT]

There are enough owners previously frustrated by Ebron and/or Doyle owners that if he sticks in Indy in 2019 I would not be surprised if his consensus value stays plateaued. TD Regression concerns + all the TEs being 'healthy' again in the off-season will be a part of that as well. Which if you are an Ebron owner should be fine, since you're likely holding - and if you're looking to buy Ebron should be fine as well since his market price may not rise much, if at all. But we shall see!

I don't have a ton of argument against anything you just said...still though, he's on fire in a very good offense right now. As an Ebron owner who is out of the playoffs and who has some TE depth...what price am I selling and what price am I holding at right now?

Oh if you see from my posts earlier in the thread & elsewhere, I am pretty high on Ebron. I am not talking about my own personal valuations - just the valuations of the dynasty consensus when you factor in all the other perspectives (fair or unfair).

The price point at which to sell is always going to be league market & team need dependant. However, I personally, would not sell for any value less than a late 1st + regardless of my team need right now & depth at any position. IE that is the ballpark where discussions start - an owner coming in with a mid-late 2nd & a flavor of the month is not likely to attract my interest, In TE premium leagues or 2 TE leagues that price could be much much higher depending on the premium format. One TE premium league I am in Ebrons production is almost identical to Hopkins (Ertz is the highest scoring WR/TE).

[btv802]

The price point at which to sell is always going to be league market & team need dependant. However, I personally, would not sell for any value less than a late 1st + regardless of my team need right now & depth at any position. IE that is the ballpark where discussions start - an owner coming in with a mid-late 2nd & a flavor of the month is not likely to attract my interest, In TE premium leagues or 2 TE leagues that price could be much much higher depending on the premium format. One TE premium league I am in Ebrons production is almost identical to Hopkins (Ertz is the highest scoring WR/TE).

Yep. This is where I am basically as well. I paid something in the range of an early 2nd for Ebron a year ago. Can't see why I'd simply want to recoup my investment at this point and I'm leaning towards just holding on to him.