Ebron value

[jordanzs]

I traded Sterling Sheppard for him over 3 weeks ago. The other owner laughed at me for sending the offer and snap accepted. He’s happy with the trade.

I’ve been happy with it too. My other TEs are/were Olson & Eifert

[ArrylT]

I traded Sterling Sheppard for him over 3 weeks ago. The other owner laughed at me for sending the offer and snap accepted. He’s happy with the trade.

I’ve been happy with it too. My other TEs are/were Olson & Eifert

I love win-win deals like that!

[jenkins.math]

Ebron had a nice TD catch, but as feared Jack Doyle comes back and gets 7 targets to Ebron's 3. Writing is on the wall Ebron owners.

[heyfeefellskee]

Ebron had a nice TD catch, but as feared Jack Doyle comes back and gets 7 targets to Ebron's 3. Writing is on the wall Ebron owners.

Not arguing one way or another--but why can't we apply the "it was one game" argument here?

[jenkins.math]

Ebron had a nice TD catch, but as feared Jack Doyle comes back and gets 7 targets to Ebron's 3. Writing is on the wall Ebron owners.

Not arguing one way or another--but why can't we apply the "it was one game" argument here?

In games 1 and 2 (Doyle was hurt in game 2) he had a total of 9 targets combined in those games. During Doyle's injury he never had less than 7 targets and he had double digit targets in 3 of the 5 games. Doyle comes back and his targets immediately shrink to 3.

In a year where the TE position has been devastated by injury, this may be the last week to sell high on Ebron. If you're averaging 4 targets/game with a healthy Jack Doyle, you become extremely TD dependent.

[JBurn244]

Well the 'one game' is now technically two games. He had a dud last week on 7 targets without Doyle around. That one you could write off as the 'inevitable down game' for any player. TD saved his day this week, but only 17 snaps with Doyle back. Ebron as a TD-dependent option who's playing very few snaps is not someone I want to rely on if I am contending. The sell window may snap shut next week, but if Doyle gets hurt again, he should be right back to being a no-brainer start.

[ArrylT]

Well Buffalo is a team that has played pretty well against TEs - I believe in fantasy they are in the top 1/3 of least points allowed by TEs. And the Colts have rushed for 200+ yards in back to back games while Luck has had less attempts in the past 2 games combined (54) than he has had in basically 3 solo games (53,59, 62).

Seems to me that the Colts basically just played 2 games where the scripts allowed them to focus on using certain matchups to win them games (which I believe is the goal of an NFL team ...). I mean I guess we could say that the fact that Inman out-targeted Hilton means he has displaced Hilton as the WR1 (Inman played the Ryan Grant role this week?).

Or we could acknowledge that even with the 'disappointing' Week VII and the return of Doyle, Ebron was still a TE1 over the past 2 weeks. Obviously the TD helped, but you cannot take that away from him unless you do the same for Doyle or the other 24 TEs who've scored a TE in the past 2 weeks. Ebron obviously remains trusted in the endzone and will likely regain snaps & targets in games where the Colts have to revert to a more pass-oriented game script.

Unless you think their games against the Bills and Raiders are the norm ...

Luck is showing he, like Brees and many other successful QBs, is able to spread the targets around - especially with the rotating cast around him as Doyle & Hilton and others have missed games. Ebron however has remained a steady target.

[jenkins.math]

Unless you think their games against the Bills and Raiders are the norm ...

When it comes to Doyle's effect on Ebron and his target share, I do believe that is the norm. Doyle got 7 targets in this game against the Raiders.

That's been my stance all along and this game did nothing but reinforce that stance.

[jordanzs]

I traded Sterling Sheppard for him a few weeks ago. So far I’m happy with the results

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Unless you think their games against the Bills and Raiders are the norm ...

When it comes to Doyle's effect on Ebron and his target share, I do believe that is the norm. Doyle got 7 targets in this game against the Raiders.

That's been my stance all along and this game did nothing but reinforce that stance.

This has been my position as well. I was open to the possibility that Ebron carved out more of a role with the numbers he put up, but he got relegated right back to less than 20 snaps the moment Doyle was available. I think unless Doyle gets hurt again, Ebron is going to be a "pray for a TD" type of start every week. That still might be startable in this year's TE climate, but it's a far cry from what people were calling him a page back.

[Jfever]

I think by watching the games that individual / specific game script & blocking scheme has much more to do with this than Doyle being a far superior TE option than Ebron. Time will tell. As it stands, and until I see Doyle become the redzone target that Ebron currently is, I think Ebron is a weekly startable TE with weekly upside.

[ArrylT]

When it comes to Doyle's effect on Ebron and his target share, I do believe that is the norm. Doyle got 7 targets in this game against the Raiders.

That's been my stance all along and this game did nothing but reinforce that stance.

This has been my position as well. I was open to the possibility that Ebron carved out more of a role with the numbers he put up, but he got relegated right back to less than 20 snaps the moment Doyle was available. I think unless Doyle gets hurt again, Ebron is going to be a "pray for a TD" type of start every week. That still might be startable in this year's TE climate, but it's a far cry from what people were calling him a page back.

I guess we shall see. I still think that game was more script dependant than an indication that Ebron is an after-thought now. If your argument is Doyle is going to have more snaps and more targets than Ebron going forward - I have no issues with that. I just do not think that Doyles return means Ebrons role disappears or his fantasy production will suffer much.

As I mentioned, Buffalo seems to play well against TEs - and we just saw that repeated on Monday night - Gronkowski had a similar number of targets as Ebron did the week prior (8 to 7) and came out of it with a very similar stat line: 3-45-0 vs. 3-31-0.

Smart teams are able to use their other weapons when one or more of their players are defended well - and the Colts and Patriots are both doing that well this year. Unfortunately for the Colts they just are not of the calibre that the Patriots are - but we are seeing them finding ways to make different players succeed due to matchups - much like the Patriots always have.

So I agree with JFever in that

I think by watching the games that individual / specific game script & blocking scheme has much more to do with this than Doyle being a far superior TE option than Ebron. Time will tell. As it stands, and until I see Doyle become the redzone target that Ebron currently is, I think Ebron is a weekly startable TE with weekly upside.

[jenkins.math]

When it comes to Doyle's effect on Ebron and his target share, I do believe that is the norm. Doyle got 7 targets in this game against the Raiders.

That's been my stance all along and this game did nothing but reinforce that stance.

This has been my position as well. I was open to the possibility that Ebron carved out more of a role with the numbers he put up, but he got relegated right back to less than 20 snaps the moment Doyle was available. I think unless Doyle gets hurt again, Ebron is going to be a "pray for a TD" type of start every week. That still might be startable in this year's TE climate, but it's a far cry from what people were calling him a page back.

I guess we shall see. I still think that game was more script dependant than an indication that Ebron is an after-thought now. If your argument is Doyle is going to have more snaps and more targets than Ebron going forward - I have no issues with that. I just do not think that Doyles return means Ebrons role disappears or his fantasy production will suffer much.

As I mentioned, Buffalo seems to play well against TEs - and we just saw that repeated on Monday night - Gronkowski had a similar number of targets as Ebron did the week prior (8 to 7) and came out of it with a very similar stat line: 3-45-0 vs. 3-31-0.

Smart teams are able to use their other weapons when one or more of their players are defended well - and the Colts and Patriots are both doing that well this year. Unfortunately for the Colts they just are not of the calibre that the Patriots are - but we are seeing them finding ways to make different players succeed due to matchups - much like the Patriots always have.

So I agree with JFever in that

I think by watching the games that individual / specific game script & blocking scheme has much more to do with this than Doyle being a far superior TE option than Ebron. Time will tell. As it stands, and until I see Doyle become the redzone target that Ebron currently is, I think Ebron is a weekly startable TE with weekly upside.

So a player (Doyle) returns from injury that plays the same position as Ebron and immediately that player takes the snaps and snap % Ebron used to have and then Ebron is relegated to backup TE snap counts and you think that's game script? Ok man...

While the Bill's defense is solid, using Gronk is a poor example. He hasn't scored a TD since week 1 and looks finished.

[ArrylT]

So a player (Doyle) returns from injury that plays the same position as Ebron and immediately that player takes the snaps and snap % Ebron used to have and then Ebron is relegated to backup TE snap counts and you think that's game script? Ok man...

While the Bill's defense is solid, using Gronk is a poor example. He hasn't scored a TD since week 1 and looks finished.

Yes because context is key.

1 - The Colts have run a ton these past 2 games - like about 70 rushing attempts - and about 40 against the Raiders - and they've had back-to-back 200+ yard rushing games.

2 - Doyle is a better run blocker than Ebron and obviously has a better fit when in running situations.

3 - Ebrons snap count was barely 50% in the Bills game - which as mentioned before was another run-heavy game script.

So basically Doyles return suggests Doyle will take Ebrons snaps when in running situations but will not have much effect on his passing role - their passing game snaps are quite similar. So counting Doyles run game snaps and taking that as confirmation that he is taking Ebrons passing game role is misguided.

Lets see what Ebrons snaps & targets are like in a heavy pass-game script and what his redzone usage is first before deciding.

As for Gronkowski - they said the same thing about Adrian Peterson last year. But hey if you want to dismiss evidence out of hand or assume that the best TE over the past decade is 'done' while still being a TE1 that is your call.

[themburns]

I seem to remember young Andrew supporting two simultaneous startable TEs earlier in his career with Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Doyle and Ebron seem at least comparable in talent level, and the team has target share to go around for the season. Doyle is the superior blocker so he'll have a higher snap %.

That being said, I believe Ebron is the better dynasty asset, he has had productive stretches before this breakout and came into the league awfully young (he is 4 months older than rookie Hayden Hurst) and with expectations that people are still holding over his head. This league is so bereft of TEs Jared Cook got enough opportunities to figure it out. The Colts can get out of either Doyle or Ebron's contracts at any time with little to no cap hit. Either would find a starting job elsewhere. If Jim Irsay decides to "get schwifty" with things in the free agent market, that could happen as soon as this off season.