Ebron value

[mullmania]

Ebron is young and plays a position that traditionally takes a bit of time to acclimate into. A fresh start could be just what he needs. Too early to stamp him as a failure.

I don’t disagree with any of that I’d feel better about Ebron if he went to a team with a better offensive line.

The Colts line is awful and if Ebron can’t figure out how to block that might hurt his snap counts.

[slaughterrt]

Didn’t see many updated values on Ebron. He has looked solid with the Colts and is #3 in scoring for TEs.

In a rebuild, do you hold or sell him? I own him and have been getting interest.

[jenkins.math]

Sell sell sell. Especially if you are rebuilding. Take the best offer and run.

[ArrylT]

Sell sell sell. Especially if you are rebuilding. Take the best offer and run.

Right the best way to rebuild is to sell young assets for the best offer you can get in that moment.

Ebron is 25. Not 28. Not 30. If it was Jared Cook or Jimmy Graham - then yes I would agree you should consider selling for the best offer you can get in your league. But when a player - regardless of position - is young and entering their prime there is no reason to sell them - unless you can get a real deal done - and when you advertise you are selling then the odds of your getting the right offer decrease not increase (because owners instinctively think bargain shop not buy high).

I mean if you can turn Ebron into a 1st/2nd and a TE like ASJ* or Hunter Henry* or OJ Howard* (ie done for season) from a contender who has no TEs, then that is a good deal. Or if you could get a WR or RB who is simmering that you like - say a Godwin or a Royce Freeman (highly doubtful imo) ... But if someone comes at you with a 3rd & an Ian Thomas / ESB / Dorsett ...

So no do not take the best offer and run - mull over the options and if they are found wanting - just hold onto Ebron. His trajectory is looking a lot more like Delanie Walker / Greg Olsen / Martellus Bennett - IE TEs who simmered for years and developed and then on a new team broke out for a nice 4+ year run. And since Ebron is 25 that run could be longer.

* - obviously you match the correct pick with the correct TE - like a 2nd with Howard for Ebron or a 1st with ASJ.

[jenkins.math]

Sell sell sell. Especially if you are rebuilding. Take the best offer and run.

Right the best way to rebuild is to sell young assets for the best offer you can get in that moment.

Ebron is 25. Not 28. Not 30. If it was Jared Cook or Jimmy Graham - then yes I would agree you should consider selling for the best offer you can get in your league. But when a player - regardless of position - is young and entering their prime there is no reason to sell them - unless you can get a real deal done - and when you advertise you are selling then the odds of your getting the right offer decrease not increase (because owners instinctively think bargain shop not buy high).

I mean if you can turn Ebron into a 1st/2nd and a TE like ASJ* or Hunter Henry* or OJ Howard* (ie done for season) from a contender who has no TEs, then that is a good deal. Or if you could get a WR or RB who is simmering that you like - say a Godwin or a Royce Freeman (highly doubtful imo) ... But if someone comes at you with a 3rd & an Ian Thomas / ESB / Dorsett ...

So no do not take the best offer and run - mull over the options and if they are found wanting - just hold onto Ebron. His trajectory is looking a lot more like Delanie Walker / Greg Olsen / Martellus Bennett - IE TEs who simmered for years and developed and then on a new team broke out for a nice 4+ year run. And since Ebron is 25 that run could be longer.

* - obviously you match the correct pick with the correct TE - like a 2nd with Howard for Ebron or a 1st with ASJ.

You honestly think Ebron as the number 3 TE can keep this up? He was let go as a high draft pick for a reason. I would sell high on him and get out while the going is good. I assumed he would get something much better at this stage than a 3rd and scrubs. I would take a late first for him and call that a win.

He is also nothing like Greg Olsen, Delanie, Martellus, etc. You're taking a short sighted view on those guys and trying to match that to Ebron, which is apples to oranges. Delanie Walker sat behind Vernon Davis and others in SF for 7 years. That's why he wasn't fantasy relevant. Greg Olsen scored 5 or more TDs, while getting heavy targets from his 2nd year on. He was extremely fantasy relevant early and has been fairly consistent. Martellus Bennett also never became a full time starter until his 5th season, after he left the Cowboys and was behind Jason Witten.

Ebron was the main TE in a pass happy offense in Detroit, yet couldn't become fantasy relevant until now. Could he keep it up? I guess. Would I bet on it? Not at all. All the guys you mentioned really took off as soon as they got an opportunity and out from other better tight ends. That is the exact opposite of Ebron.

[Jfever]

Sell sell sell. Especially if you are rebuilding. Take the best offer and run.

#1. Don't listen to this ^

#2. TE is a position that takes time. It is also a position that is highly dependent on the system. Ebron is now mature enough (yet still very young for producing TE standards) and in the right system. Pat yourself on the back for showing the patience and fortitude to NOT have moved on like most have.

[sjcourtney56]

I agree with JFever here, Ebron is 25 years old and has already had three seasons of over 500 yards and is already half way there this season. I wouldn't be actively looking to move him especially in the current landscape in which TE looks pretty barren. Will he continue to be the TE 3...who knows, but my guess would be that nobody is paying that kind of price for him anyways as his name elicits a negative reaction due to his time in Detroit. Also, lets remember that just because an offense is pass happy does not mean that an offense features or properly utilizes a tight end, Detroit was not a fit.

[ArrylT]

You honestly think Ebron as the number 3 TE can keep this up? He was let go as a high draft pick for a reason. I would sell high on him and get out while the going is good. I assumed he would get something much better at this stage than a 3rd and scrubs. I would take a late first for him and call that a win.

He is also nothing like Greg Olsen, Delanie, Martellus, etc. You're taking a short sighted view on those guys and trying to match that to Ebron, which is apples to oranges. Delanie Walker sat behind Vernon Davis and others in SF for 7 years. That's why he wasn't fantasy relevant. Greg Olsen scored 5 or more TDs, while getting heavy targets from his 2nd year on. He was extremely fantasy relevant early and has been fairly consistent. Martellus Bennett also never became a full time starter until his 5th season, after he left the Cowboys and was behind Jason Witten.

Ebron was the main TE in a pass happy offense in Detroit, yet couldn't become fantasy relevant until now. Could he keep it up? I guess. Would I bet on it? Not at all. All the guys you mentioned really took off as soon as they got an opportunity and out from other better tight ends. That is the exact opposite of Ebron.

Yeah Detroit let him go in a cost-cutting move. His base salary would have been 8m in 2017 had they used his 5th year option. Detroit tried and could not afford Burton either. They use a 3 WR set and RBs (like Riddick) more than they need to funnel production through the TE. We can see from their offence again how productive TEs are doing now that Ebron is out of the picture.

Meanwhile, Indy has a long history of using multiple TEs and happily snapped up Ebron - probably for the exact reason we are seeing so far.

Not sure what you are talking about in Ebron not being fantasy relevant. Ebron was a low end TE1 already last year, and down the stretch was basically a top 6 TE. This year, even if you remove Ebrons last 2 games and go with just Weeks 1-3 he was again a TE1. In 2016 Ebron was borderline TE1, in 2015 Ebron was a borderline TE1. So yeah inspite of having 2 WR1/2s and RB2s in Detroit (Riddick has 50+ receptions over the past 3 years in Detroit) he was still fantasy relevant - he just wasnt what everyone wanted - aka a Gronk or Kelce type who was one of or the featured weapon.

Like I said - if you get the right offer then yes you should take it. But looking at Trade Finder and using Ebron as the primary piece here is some of what I found

Ebron for 2nd
Ebron for Taywan Taylor
Ebron for A. Peterson
Ebron for Gio Bernard
Ebron for RSJ and a 5th

I will take Ebron any day and every day in any of those deals (and I am high on Gio)

Now if you can use Ebron and something else to get a

Ebron & S. Shepard for S. Michel & M. Andrews deal
or as mentioned a 1st or a 1nd/2nd and TE

So I agree with you on a 1st is a good deal.

I am disagreeing though with the 'take your best offer' and run - due to a variety of factors, including especially his age, he is not someone you need to sell like a hot potato. And if you are not that high on Ebron and are advocating sell sell sell what is to say the potential buyers are going to feel different and buy high.

And no I have no doubts that - barring unforeseen circumstances - Ebron could easily finish top 5-6 TE this year. Ebron is a red-zone target and Ebron seems to be on the way to becoming a favorite target of Luck in an offense that is much more TE friendly, even when Hilton is around, than Detroits.

[ArrylT]

Sell sell sell. Especially if you are rebuilding. Take the best offer and run.

#1. Don't listen to this ^

#2. TE is a position that takes time. It is also a position that is highly dependent on the system. Ebron is now mature enough (yet still very young for producing TE standards) and in the right system. Pat yourself on the back for showing the patience and fortitude to NOT have moved on like most have.

JFever said what I should have said in much less than I could have.

[JoshGordonsDealer]

I'm on the hold train. I don't think Ebron is going to end this season as the TE #3, but he's honestly the second best receiver on the Colts. He's got a storied history of drops, but... here are the leading droppers of 2018

TEs take time. Ebron is producing like a legit TE1 when given the opportunity. I'll continue starting him and feeling good about it.

[Jfever]

lol ArrIT.

Do you all remember Brandon Pettigrew? Yuck right? He was a very successful TE prospect, highly drafted, etc. Detriot's system is simply not TE dependent or friendly. Not all systems are. Couple that with another example. How about Chicago. Remind yourself that G.Olsen spent the first part of his career there. He did very little fantasy wise there and wasn't a main piece that their offense utilized. The D.Walker example is good too as he was a roster clogger for several years before V.Davis was moved. It took Z.Ertz some time to get NFL acclimated. I think this is an example of dynasty players not understanding that positions must be looked at differently. We can and should show more patience with Qb, TE, then Wr. Rb's typically don't require as much patience. But.... the TE position often times requires the most patience out of all fantasy relevant positions. RARELY do even highly productive, highly drafted, highly skilled NCAA TE's come into the NFL and tear it up their rookie year.

**** Don't draft TE for need ***** it usually doesn't work.

[ArrylT]

lol ArrIT.

Do you all remember Brandon Pettigrew? Yuck right? He was a very successful TE prospect, highly drafted, etc. Detriot's system is simply not TE dependent or friendly. Not all systems are. Couple that with another example. How about Chicago. Remind yourself that G.Olsen spent the first part of his career there. He did very little fantasy wise there and wasn't a main piece that their offense utilized. The D.Walker example is good too as he was a roster clogger for several years before V.Davis was moved. It took Z.Ertz some time to get NFL acclimated. I think this is an example of dynasty players not understanding that positions must be looked at differently. We can and should show more patience with Qb, TE, then Wr. Rb's typically don't require as much patience. But.... the TE position often times requires the most patience out of all fantasy relevant positions. RARELY do even highly productive, highly drafted, highly skilled NCAA TE's come into the NFL and tear it up their rookie year.

**** Don't draft TE for need ***** it usually doesn't work.

I basically agree with all you said above except for the incorrect spelling of my name.

it is a lower case L - l. A lower case I would be i.

But yeah I remember Pettigrew all right. indeed. He was older than Ebron - basically was fully developed athletically if I recall - and he was alright in re-draft as a late round option for a couple of years - but dynasty wise.

And in a where are we now fashion:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 768967002/

[remedy29]

Do I think Ebron can keep this up? Absolutely, he is getting major red zone love from Luck and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Ebron has a history of producing at a high level. He lacks consistency, not talent.

[jenkins.math]

To me Ebron is the classic "shiny new toy" that everyone gets excited about. But if you really take a deeper look at things, you can see a bubble that is about to pop. How much of his success is related to Jack Doyle being out? Ebron's targets per game have doubled since week 2 and the Jack Doyle injury. Whose to say that once Doyle is back, Ebron's targets aren't cut in half?

Now you guys that like Ebron are saying "he is in a TE friendly system now". Ok, but for how long? While Ebron technically signed a 2 year deal, it is really only a 1 year prove it deal. The Colts can cut Ebron this offseason and there is 0 dead cap money with that move. So they literally save 6.5 million with no penalty.

This is why I say get out right now. I can't see his value ever being higher than it is right now. If Doyle comes back and Ebron's targets are cut in half, you missed the window and he becomes a hold at best. Dynasty is chess not checkers. Look beyond the current situation and ask yourself how good do you really feel about him moving forward.

[btv802]

George Kittle is the shiny new toy not Eric Ebron. There is in fact nothing shiny about Ebron.They are essentially the same age for what it’s worth. Ebron is playing the majority of the snaps from the slot so I don’t think that is target volume is necessarily tied to the presence of Doyle.