Alvin Kamara: Confident or Concerned

[pvillebiker]

Don't forget the obvious. Ingram has extremely fresh legs & Kamara's gotta be tired with all the work he's had. I expect them to ride Ingram more than they usually would the next few games, before it evens out a bit (60-40 split in Kamara's favor is my guess).

I fully expect more "what the hell happened with only x FF points?" days for Kamara this year. Precisely zero to worry about...but probably wise to factor that in.

[Cameron Giles]

Week 5:

Ingram - 55% of offensive snaps
Kamara - 47% of offensive snaps

Last season:

Ingram - 55% of offensive snaps
Kamara - 44% of offensive snaps

I don't see a big deal. Kamara was good last season because he did more with less. I'd expect more of the same going forward. Also, as most have noted it was probably a strategic use of a rest day after giving Kamara 17, 19, 31, and 24 touches in the previous week. So, he gets a light load and a bye week to regroup.

[Pullo Vision]

That looks like a laundry list of things you have the other owner likes. Was there a message with that?

No message. It was basically a fock you offer from a newbie dynasty owner playing in his first league.

I think he thought I way low balled him on the 2019 1st for Ingram. (Mind you he's got a very nice team but he's sitting at 1-4 with Ingram on bye and Chris Thompson who knows)

I hashed it out with him and he's more the mindset to win now and try and make a run. I usually play that way too.

I'd have snap accepted your offer. Ingram turns 29 in a couple months and regardless of what happens this year his value plummets at the end of the season.

Plummets? There's enough useful places be can go to maintain/expand his value. He might have a hard drop in value like Demarco Murray did, but be a strong option until then.

[Pullo Vision]

Randomly stumbled across this thread. In one league last year, I was concerned with how 2018 played out and ended up pulling a massive trade of Kamara for Hopkins towards the end of the season.

[Ice]

This was actually an interesting read.

The term 3 down back itself is changing IMO from a fantasy perspective. It is now becoming all about touch opportunities. Receiving opportunities IMO count more than rushing these days a factor of two due to yards generated and PPR points.

Kamara in 2018 had 194 rushing attempt 4.6 YPC
Kamara in 2018 had 81 receptions 8.8 Y/R

When you weight the performance of both facets of Kamara's game you have a BEAST RB1 on your hands which actually makes him better than most quote "3 down Backs".

Receptions 81 x2 = 162 + rushing 194 provides an effective touch rate of 356.

[honcho55]

This was actually an interesting read.

The term 3 down back itself is changing IMO from a fantasy perspective. It is now becoming all about touch opportunities. Receiving opportunities IMO count more than rushing these days a factor of two due to yards generated and PPR points.

Kamara in 2018 had 194 rushing attempt 4.6 YPC
Kamara in 2018 had 81 receptions 8.8 Y/R

When you weight the performance of both facets of Kamara's game you have a BEAST RB1 on your hands which actually makes him better than most quote "3 down Backs".

Receptions 81 x2 = 162 + rushing 194 provides an effective touch rate of 356.

Agree. I think something similar happens with WR labels as well. We worry a lot about whether a guy is a true WR1 or just a slot guy or just a gadget guy.

[kadun2]

This was actually an interesting read.

The term 3 down back itself is changing IMO from a fantasy perspective. It is now becoming all about touch opportunities. Receiving opportunities IMO count more than rushing these days a factor of two due to yards generated and PPR points.

Kamara in 2018 had 194 rushing attempt 4.6 YPC
Kamara in 2018 had 81 receptions 8.8 Y/R

When you weight the performance of both facets of Kamara's game you have a BEAST RB1 on your hands which actually makes him better than most quote "3 down Backs".

Receptions 81 x2 = 162 + rushing 194 provides an effective touch rate of 356.

Definitely a beast. Touch opportunities + Saints offense = gold.
The only negative, if there is one, is lack of reaching point bonuses for rushing and receiving because he is so balanced in both. But he still even reaches those bonuses every now and then!
Super RB1 going forward.

[ArrylT]

Yeah that is a good point. I think in the back of our mind we always knew more touches = more opportunity for production but at the same time regular touches is considered 'safer' than manufactured touches. The NFL seems to be changing to a degree that these manufactured touches are becoming less manufactured and more normal. So while it once was deemed safer to go for the guy with 20 rushes and 5 receptions, now the guys with 12-15 rushes and 8-10 receptions are coming to the forefront.

I mean Barkley is in a sense, like Kamara, a face of this new form. Barkley only surpassed 20 rushing attempts 4 times this season, but only got less than 5 reception targets 3x during the same season. I mean guys like Jordan Howard & Chris Carson had like only 10 less rushing attempts than Barkley.

2014 I believe was the last season where more than 1 RB got 300 rushing attempts. Basically 250 is the new 300 in attempts, and 75 receptions is the new 50 (the same # of RBs that has 75+ receptions pretty much equals the # of RBs that had 50+ 10+ years ago).

[cazzie33]

He's the modern Thurman Thomas. Can be your main RB but not your power GL guy. That's why Ingram was the wear them down punisher guy when they had the lead like Kenny Davis used to get decent run in Buffalo.

You don't want Kamara to be broken down by midseason but he can handle 20-25 touches of plays mostly out in space . Leave the slamming into the line to someone else for the most part.

[Pullo Vision]

He's the modern Thurman Thomas. Can be your main RB but not your power GL guy. That's why Ingram was the wear them down punisher guy when they had the lead like Kenny Davis used to get decent run in Buffalo.

You don't want Kamara to be broken down by midseason but he can handle 20-25 touches of plays mostly out in space . Leave the slamming into the line to someone else for the most part.

It's this point that had me concerned. Even if Ingram walks, they will bring in a platoon mate. You're basically hoping his wingman is more limited like Blount/Collins and not like a Carson, who will siphon touches independent of breather/short-yardage snaps.

[dizzler]

Yeah that is a good point. I think in the back of our mind we always knew more touches = more opportunity for production but at the same time regular touches is considered 'safer' than manufactured touches. The NFL seems to be changing to a degree that these manufactured touches are becoming less manufactured and more normal. So while it once was deemed safer to go for the guy with 20 rushes and 5 receptions, now the guys with 12-15 rushes and 8-10 receptions are coming to the forefront.

I mean Barkley is in a sense, like Kamara, a face of this new form. Barkley only surpassed 20 rushing attempts 4 times this season, but only got less than 5 reception targets 3x during the same season. I mean guys like Jordan Howard & Chris Carson had like only 10 less rushing attempts than Barkley.

2014 I believe was the last season where more than 1 RB got 300 rushing attempts. Basically 250 is the new 300 in attempts, and 75 receptions is the new 50 (the same # of RBs that has 75+ receptions pretty much equals the # of RBs that had 50+ 10+ years ago).

Adding on to ArrylT, look at CmC.

Only 2 games CmC had over 20 carries. But also only 3 games he had less than 5 catches. Result - RB #2 and almost 400 fantasy points accrued in PPR format.

[Dominus]

What impact does Brees' absence have on Kamara's production this year, if any? Would you still rank him as a top 5 RB for the 2019 season?

[MrUbuto]

I would be worried about that entire offense

Not absolute panic but how can you lose a 1st ballot hall of Famer who knows that offense better than his wife to not have an effect?

Kamara and thomas are still auto starts but there will be some pain. Brees was not only a great player but also a great coach

[jenkins.math]

I don't remember which NFL analyst made the comment this morning, but they said they were more concerned about Kamara than Michael Thomas with the Brees news. According to him, the biggest difference between Brees and Bridgewater is the ability to check to the right running play at the line. I think Kamara is going to get plenty of volume, but he may not see the incredible efficiency he has experienced the last couple of seasons. He still should be a RB1 and must start.

[honcho55]

6-8 weeks could be a nice peek at what might happen after brees? This team is definitely still going to want to contend for a playoff push when brees returns.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about having MT in two leagues. I think you very much have to ding everyone’s prospects fantasy-wise. I don’t know that it’ll be an enormous drop off, though.

Side note, as I was typing this it popped up on espn that the saints FPI % to win rate only dropped 1% for all of the games teddy is projected to start? Wtf?