The Le'Veon Bell Tolls ... To the Ravens

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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby TB3falcons » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:45 pm

murphysxm wrote: Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:13 am
JFever wrote: Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:10 am No concerns at all. hmmm kay. That kind of confidence is overflowing with selective biases. I guess, in the long run, we'll see. Put the patient L.Bell behind a poor o-line, offer him a ton of money, and watch him be somewhere in the middle of the pack as it pertains to fantasy production. If I were an owner, I'd have a ton of concerns. Talent simply isn't everything when it comes to rb production.

Bell isn't stupid enough to put himself behind a poor offensive line, which is a lot of my confidence. If he gets traded, whole different scenario. I just don't see that happening.
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby Bot101 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:49 pm

dynastyninja wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:41 am
rubber_duck wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:36 am How much fun would it be if the Ravens signed Bell in 2019? :-D
I'm predicting he does sign with Baltimore. Don't know enough about their cap space, but they could absolutely use a stud RB and Bell would probably be thrilled to go at Pittsburgh twice a year.
As an Elijah McGuire owner I approve this message.

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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby Ice » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:43 am

dm1129 wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:40 pm
Ice wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:02 pm

Of Course the Owners have a strong hand. That is a Captain Obvious Statement if I ever heard one.

I will leave with the following:

I find it amusing many fail to see any benefit to the players of the tag system. Anyone that even loosely follows contract negotiations knows differently.

Go back to each tag the last two years and enlighten me how the teams benefited more than the player. You might find 1 or even two you could you make a case for but majority, if you look fairly, would see both sides benefited with some players benefiting more.

The tag is a last best resort to retain a player or trade a player to get back some value.

You are arguing solely about how much a player could get without giving any credence to how the player benefits from signing the tag. Players like Lawrence and Ziggy jumped at the chance to sign their tag. WHY?

Making an argument based on one player is a pretty weak argument. The Players union had no issue expanding the tag over multiple years from the previous agreements.

It is a ridiculous position to take that NO layer benefits from the tag and it is not factual to think the Tag doesn't help drive market value. This is one reason the tags are used less and less. The owners don't like using the tag. They use it as a last resort because of the risk and INSTANT CAP hit they absorb.

Sure a Player wins with guarantees if they get hurt or bust after they get paid but that is a double edge sword as the owners and fans lose given ultimately we pay for all this through ticket prices, direct tv payments, concession purchases, and apparel purchases.

The Owners have far more risk overall than the players overall. The entertainment industry pays well but siding with the players exclusively is straight up dangerous. I get in the world of fantasy football, team allegiance suffers but total FA is also a horrible idea. The F tag system and the salary cap help the players more than you realize.

Without them, there would very few teams with any chance of winning. Tags and salary cap are two check and balance systems designed to not only help owners protect themselves from each other but it helps the league maintain some sense of competitive balance.

Without Tag options and the salary cap the smaller market teams would have no chance. The Dynasty Jerry Jones created with the Cowboys back in the day is the primary reason we see the system we have today and why the NFL is so successful. People may hate him but the guaranteed contracts and upfront signing bonuses he set up gave him a huge advantage over all teams.

The players benefit more than you realize from competitive balance given so many small market teams in the NFL.

Looking at this from a WIN/LOSE perspective is simply not the way it is. That doesn't mean some teams or players lose with the tagging process but this process is woven into the very fabric of the league and both sides have benefited greatly.

The Tag helped further set the market for mid range QB's like Cousins. The Tag will certainly continue to help set the market for DE's in 2019. The tag has helped set the market for DT's and most certainly helped mid range DB's get way more money, (go see Fuller's contract.) Obviously it is not a huge a part but it does help play a role as the floor averages increase each time it is employed.

While the Tag won't go away, no one can argue that salaries in the NFL are skyrocketing. The Tag is one part of that equation but is used less frequently due to the cost. The ability to spread out signing bonuses helps with cap management. The F Tag hurts cap management.

Teams, especially small market teams should have the right to try an retain their one best player coming off contact annually. This was the ultimate reason it came into existence.

Owners have far bigger issues to worry about. They need to figure out how to keep fans in the seats or the gravy train for players and owners will suffer. Have you scene in recent history how many empty seats there are at games? Eventually ticket sales will also decline. While Revenues have been rising, it is primarily a function of TV contracts, that will not continue if fans stop going the games at significant levels. There are three teams this season running under 80% capacity.
Seriously? No.

The salary cap is going up because revenues are going up. It has absolutely nothing to do with the tag. The tag does not set anything. The tag does not drive anything. The tag is calculated by taking the average of the top 5 player salaries at a position. How are those 5 salaries detemined? BY THE MARKET. Why is taking the average of other salaries seen as anything but what it is, a market manipulation, a distortion? The only way to set the price is through the market. This is not complicated. If a team thinks a player is worth less than the tag price, they will not tag the player. The very structure of the tag process ensures this.

Your arguments about small market vs big market teams and checks and balances is a completely different issue and has no relevance to the fact that the tag is to the advantage of the team. If the process was truly equatable as you argue, the player would have the right to say no to the tag. In other words, both parties would have to agree to the tag or the player goes to free agency. There is an obvious reason why only the team has the option to tag and the player does not Some may even say it is 'amusing' you do not comprehend that. Only players viewed as at least worth the price of the tag are ever tagged by a team. Most are worth more than the tag, that is the very reason they are tagged. Hence the unfairness.

Lastly, your own argument supports that the tag is to the benefit of the team when you state that small market teams should have the right to tag a player.


Signed, Captain Obvious
Nice Try Captain Obvious!

The difference in our arguments is I understand both sides of the issues and sees the benefits and risks of both side of the argument.

The other side is simply arguing against the tag system due to a sample size of one.

That is okay, we can disagree but the drivers of market value and salary benefits are far more complex than you are making them out to be IMO. It should be obvious that teams are using one of the 3 tagging options less and less due to the costs/risks associated with applying tag.

BTW, I never claimed the tagging process didn't benefit the team. Of course in many instances it certainly does which is why the Captain Obvious comment, which was in jest just in case you were wondering. The difference here is I see countless examples of where players also benefit.

The nuance of how agents and teams negotiate contracts is where we differ but when the floor raises 120% due to a 2nd year tag or the averages raise due to initial floor stabilization it does make a difference. The Non Exclusive F-Tag really impacts salaries positively due to the compensation factor and the T-Tag certainly positively impacts player contracts due to the poison pill factor put in contracts by offering teams to avoid additional compensation

These nuances have zero to do with overall revenue but they certainly impact how that revenue is divided up for the better players in the league. The Players Union negotiators certainly understand the theory that rising tides raise all boats which is the reason they not only agreed to the Tagging System but expanded this system last go around.

I agree that most of the affected players individually may not like it but if your name is Fuller, Cousins, Ziggy, or D. Lawrence you actually have or will benefit from the process. It would take much

Bell hated it and now will only claim a win IMO if he gets 45 Million in hard guarantees rather than the 33 million which appear to be the last offer prior to Gurley's deal. Time will tell if a team pays that. It only takes 1 team and teams like the Colts, Jets, Bills, Raiders, and Texans are in the best cap position today to offer that kind of coin and could use an impact player. ( I don't see the Bills making an offer given they need O Line help.)

Two sides to the coin when it comes to tagging. The Owners are not real happy with actual unintended consequences the tagging system has had on salaries and risks regardless of their evil motivations as some believe. That should also be obvious given it is now used Rarely. Only used 5 Times of 32 opportunities last season.
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby jetsfan5757 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:21 am

:wall: :wall: :wall:

I get that a few players have seemingly benefited from the tag by signing what appear to be above market deals and then not living up to them. However, I don't think that really means that the tag IS in fact beneficial to those players. What I, and I think others like dm1129, believe is that if it weren't for the tag, those players would have signed longer deals at their current market value (perhaps for slightly less per year, but likely with more guaranteed money). In a sport like football I think most players seem to prefer this because of the security it gets them. This is why I think far fewer players are actually benefiting from the tag than you say. I'm not "Refusing to see the other side", I just don't agree with your assessment/logic. It looks the way you describe it in hindsight, because they had bad years which lowered their market value, but only because we don't know what deal they could have gotten on the open market.

Also, you keep saying that the tag lifts salaries for other players. This time you even referenced the rising tide lifts all boats theory. The players salary is capped at 48 or 48.5% or whatever it is of income (I think they call is something like football related income). The tag DOESN'T CHANGE FOOTBALL INCOME, so it does not "raise the tide". The tag robs from Peter to feed Paul. You've formed cohesive thoughts and arguments so you're obviously smart; you have to understand this part at least even if you don't agree with me on the 1st paragraph...

The tag might raise the salaries of other RBs when Bell gets tagged, or other CBs when Trumaine Johnson got tagged twice, because the max salary at each position that everyone compares themselves to went up, but that money gets taken away from other players, not from owners. That means that there will be more players at the same or other position making less money because of the HARD CAP that you yourself mentioned in a previous essay you posted here.
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby Ice » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:20 am

You are are getting it. Don't hurt your head.

The reason the Tag is not a big negative issue for the Player Union is your last paragraph. The tag does in fact help some players. Never said the money gets taken away from owners. What it does do is help future contracts of upper tier players which does drive up the market for those players withing the total pie of revenue split.

It is the same basic reasoning of why their is a salary cap and basically fixed pricing for rookie contracts.

Like I said this isn't a democracy, its a business.

Lost in all this is the single best argument for the players for keeping the Tagging system, which is bearing out today, is the fact it is so penal to the owners it is rarely used instead forcing ownership into long term contracts with monies guaranteed because it allows the owners to spread out the signing bonuses and cap hits over time as opposed to taking a massive 10 to 25 million upfront cap hit. This is a huge benefit to the players overall.

Obviously the young players and the marginal quality players do not benefit until they earn the right to even get a 2nd or 3rd contact.

I hope you can at least see the tagging system overall is nothing close to a one way street. In the future we will continue to see fewer uses of the tag especially the Exclusive Version of the Franchise Tag.

Bell is proving this version of the Tag doesn't really help any side if the player doesn't play. I will concede that in this one instance, the Steelers were lucky to have a capable replacement and Bell was unlucky for the exact same reason. In this case Bell of his own doing lost 14.5 Million he will never get back.

That said, it doesn't mean the tagging system is bad overall for either side but it certainly wasn't good for Bell due in large part to his own decision making process. Doesn't mean his thought process was necessarily bad for him.
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby jetsfan5757 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:52 am

Bro, for every player the tag helps, it hurts another, or even multiple others. I'm not sure why players would be happy about that.

It's very different from having a cap and fixed pricing for rookies. The league fixed the price of rookies to shift pay from those who haven't proven themselves (and aren't even in the union yet) to vets who have earned it. Yes, they eliminate the rookie's right to negotiate and in that sense they are similar. But it's totally different because that decision guaranteed that there would be a larger portion of the pie for the vets.

The tag vs longer deals and signing bonuses does hurt when it comes to cap management. However, while the tag hurts the team's ability to manage the cap, it benefits the team/owner in terms of cash flow (they pay one year's salary up front, not a MUCH larger signing bonus) and it again hurts the player because the tag is smaller than a signing bonus would have been, so player receives less up front.

The tag is nothing more than a tool to rob the player of their ability to negotiate in the open market. "I'm not letting you leave. I'm not negotiating with you. I will pay you X and you can take it or leave it."

I've devoted more energy to this than I ever cared to. I doubt I convince you of anything and I haven't seen/heard anything that changes my opinion.

Let's agree to disagree bro. :thumbup: I'm done... :wave:
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby ArrylT » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:48 pm

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/will-s ... 22119.html

One analysts take on the odds on Bell landing spot
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby ArrylT » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:48 pm

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/f ... story.html

This article mentions a study that suggests RBs are more valuable than defensive players ...
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:14 pm

ArrylT wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:48 pm https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/will-s ... 22119.html

One analysts take on the odds on Bell landing spot
Remember when Bell said it would take 50 million guaranteed for him to play for the Jets, and people thought he was "dissing" them? Maybe he was looking into their cap situation, and lack of offensive firepower.

https://thesportsdaily.com/2018/11/16/n ... onclusion/

Sure would help their franchise QB. I think it would make sense for the Jets to outbid everyone and give Darnold a serious aid in his development.
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby J. Edgar » Sun Nov 18, 2018 6:25 am

If Houston lets Clowney walk I would put them at the top of the list.
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:24 am

ArrylT wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:48 pm https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/will-s ... 22119.html

One analysts take on the odds on Bell landing spot
The link's from Canada, are you sure it's safe? I'm not saying the internet is like the prescription drug market, but... :)
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby ArrylT » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:42 am

Pullo Vision wrote: Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:24 am
ArrylT wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:48 pm https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/will-s ... 22119.html

One analysts take on the odds on Bell landing spot
The link's from Canada, are you sure it's safe? I'm not saying the internet is like the prescription drug market, but... :)
I promise that I wont ask you to join Initiative Q. :lol:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby gogobradyarm » Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:14 pm

BoogerMcFarland wrote: Sun Nov 18, 2018 6:25 am If Houston lets Clowney walk I would put them at the top of the list.
Unless they address their offensive line, any RB there is doomed
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby Pullo Vision » Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:07 am

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/alex-smith ... 33539.html
On Sunday, Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith gruesomely illustrated that frightening hypothetical, suffering a broken leg that will go down as one of the league’s most brutal quarterback injuries in recent years. Taken in a broader context, it’s a ghastly demonstration of why many star players loathe playing on one-year deals. The sport is so violent and unpredictable, the course of a career can be dramatically altered on any one play.


This is why Bell sat out in 2018. Even $14.5 million for one season wasn’t worth the risk of potentially losing as much as $45 million in guaranteed money in March. And don’t kid yourself: Bell would have lost tens of millions in free agency if he suffered an injury similar to what happened to Smith against the Houston Texans.

This was Bell’s point. This was the business decision. This was Bell understanding the viciousness of the NFL and playing it safe rather than sorry. Pressed against the image of Smith’s leg snapping, that cautious approach looks less crazy than it did last week.

There’s also another factor that makes Smith’s injury more poignant when you consider Bell: The Redskins quarterback is protected by the kind of contract guarantees the Steelers running back is holding out to secure in 2019. Not only did Smith lock down $55 million in fully guaranteed money in his new contract, he also secured a grand total of $71 million in injury guarantees. If that broken leg costs Smith the rest of his career – a la Joe Theismann 33 years earlier (to the exact day, no less) – he’s walking away with his $71 million.
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Re: Le'Veon Bell

Postby grooner » Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:22 am

As the article references above, this is exactly why Bell sat out. I am still not sure how I feel about him sitting out. On one had it is a smart decision as he won't be able to get hurt, and can hopefully sign a large contract next season, on the other hand, throwing away 14.5M is a lot of money. It is a complicated scenario though, and have to think of the different possible outcomes:

If he played and made 14.5, then got injured and was never able to play again, he only makes 14.5.
If he played and made 14.5, and didn't get injured, who knows what his next contract would have been. He makes the most possible.
If he played and signed the steelers offer, he was guaranteed 33? (not sure on the offer), gets injured and never plays again, he makes 33.
if he played and signed the steelers offer, he was guaranteed 33? (not sure on the offer), doesn't get injured he makes 33 for the next 3 years? maybe signs more after?
If he doesn't sign anything, and signs a lucrative contract next year, the holdout would be worth it. If he holds out and doesn't sign a lucrative the holdout wouldn't be worth it.

It really depends how likely he was to be injured.


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