Michael Thomas Thread: Still a WR1?

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Cameron Giles
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Michael Thomas Thread: Still a WR1?

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:00 am

If you've hung out in the college football season threads, then you probably know how high I've become on Michael Thomas throughout this season. At some point towards the end of the season, I firmly put him as my #2 WR behind Treadwell. I feel like he's not getting his due right now, though that could be the result of many people still playing catchup on the football season.Thomas might be the most underused big-name receiver in the nation:

Michael Thomas last 2 years:
157 targets, 5 drops, 110 catches, 18 TD, 1,580 yards in 28 games

Treadwell last 2 years:
196 targets, 12 drops, 131 catches, 16 TD, 1,785 yards (injury as a sophomore) in 24 games

Corey Coleman last 2 years:
207 targets, 17 drops, 138 catches, 31 TD, 2,482 yards in 22 games

Will Fuller last 2 years:
211 targets 21 drops, 138 catches, 29 TD, 2,352 yards in 26 games

Tyler Boyd last 2 years:
252 targets 10 drops, 172 catches, 14 TDs, 2,187 yards in 25 games

Thomas has the least amount of targets and yards while playing the most games of any WR on that list. Ohio State's sytem simply did him zero favors, and that's a huge part of the puzzle that can ruin his comparables when we do metric/statistical analysis. Once you get past that, his game tape checks out like a pro.

Though he lacks elite speed and freakish athleticism, Thomas has several traits of an NFL go-to wide receiver. He has a terrific frame at 6'3, 210 and possesses good (but not great) athleticism. He explodes off the line of scrimmage into his route and displays a good level of suddeness. He's shown he can beat the jam at the line with his hands and is very pristine in his cuts to create separation. Thomas' route running is already very good and can get better. He seems to have a great grasp on the technical aspect of it and should have no trouble running the full route tree.

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For laughs, this is what his NFL Draft profile says on NFL.com:
"Struggles with footwork out of press release spending excessive time trying to fake and shake cornerbacks. Still figuring out this whole "route running" thing."

He also might be the best hands catcher in the draft, though that's a tossup between him and Tyler Boyd. He makes a habit of catching away from his body and mental mistakes are few and far in between. Thomas uses sound athleticism and body control to attack and come down with jump balls. The plus is that he has good recognition to make it a legal catch with his feet. He has all the tools to be a competent downfield threat, win the short game, and be a redzone nightmare.

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Before Ohio State's final game of the season Thomas was only been targeted nine times in the red zone. In comparison, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman, and Pharoh Cooper all have at least 16 red zone targets.

As far as combine stuff, I'm only interested to see his vertical. I think he has low-end WR1 upside, though I won't say he'll be a perennial occurence because of how crowded the position is. Either way, his games throughout the season has been a favorite of mine to watch, at least when he's used.

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby lawilt » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:07 am

shhhhhh don't tell anyone

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby Titus Young's Lawyer » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:11 am

Great post sir. I think you are right and he will probably go higher in the draft than a lot of people are currently anticipating.

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby sugbear65 » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:25 am

Nice evaluation and breakdown, i can appreciate your case for liking him so much. But it's not really like he's some kind of secret either. He is also DLFs 2nd ranked WR behind Treadwell, and is top 5 already in rookie ADP. I think he's plenty getting his due right now, how much higher should he be? Unless you think he's gonna pass Treadwell and be in the 1.01 conversation?

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:28 am

You're the same guy who sold me on Thomas a few months ago. I did a ton of research since then and I've come to the same conclusions that you've posted here.

There used to be a clear top 2, but now I think it's easily a clear top 3. Nice post, well done.
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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:36 am

sugbear65 wrote:Nice evaluation and breakdown, i can appreciate your case for liking him so much. But it's not really like he's some kind of secret either. He is also DLFs 2nd ranked WR behind Treadwell, and is top 5 already in rookie ADP. I think he's plenty getting his due right now, how much higher should he be? Unless you think he's gonna pass Treadwell and be in the 1.01 conversation?
My main point isn't that he's underrated, though as a whole (not this website), I just haven't seen a ton of love for him on many websites. I figure he couldn't be too underrated if he has 1st round potential in the real draft. The staff at Rotoviz, for example, isn't very high on Thomas because of his statistical comparables and low market share % of yards. And if you look at his NFL Draft profile, he's compared to Charles Johnson, and tagged as a boom-bust WR.

I just don't see it.

My focus is that he's insanely underused because of coaching, very skilled and really good at football.

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby sloth8u » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:12 pm

i live in ohio and watched every game. ive liked thomas for awhile. i agree with all that you've mentioned...but ive said it before and i'll say it here. how does he stack up against whats already in the league?

he can emerge as a clear top 5, but does a top 5 this year have what it takes to become an elite level player in the league?

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby knut45 » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:19 pm

Not arguing with your stats on drop but I found them suprising as from what i've seen on draftbreakdown it seemed like he dropped the ball more than that. Will go back and have a watch.

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:22 pm

sloth8u wrote:i live in ohio and watched every game. ive liked thomas for awhile. i agree with all that you've mentioned...but ive said it before and i'll say it here. how does he stack up against whats already in the league?

he can emerge as a clear top 5, but does a top 5 this year have what it takes to become an elite level player in the league?
The WR position is just too crowded. There are a ton of players who have the ability to be WR1's, but could end up as 2's. I think Thomas has the skill and ability to have a low-end WR1 season or two.

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby themburns » Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:10 pm

Agreed with the premise. I'm holding the 1.4 with the intent to grab him there in a league. He is a test case on metrics. Ohio State and Meyer run an offense predicated on option runs and speed beating less athletic opponents to the edges. Jaylin Marshall and Braxton miller were the target on the constraint plays meant to exploit the opponent's defense. Thomas was a victim of too many mouths to feed, and metrics don't have much of a way to account for that. Frequently open, shows ability to make contested catches, size and speed should check out fine at the combine. If anyone cares for a comp, he reminds me of Michael Floyd. Don't think he ever becomes a WR1, but people might pay that for him while he is ascending and should be polished out of the gate.

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby DynoScout » Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:34 pm

Awesome post, Cameron. Love the GIFs.
Agree 100% - easy 1.03 in this class right now and closer to Treadwell than the WR3 in my position ranks.

One note, he had a greyshirt year at prep school between HS and OSU and a redshirt his SO season at OSU, so he's an older prospect.

Regardless, he checks the on-field boxes for me. I'm not hung up at all by his raw stats.

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby Phaded » Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:44 pm

Good piece.

Based on my very preliminary scouting - I actually like him better than Treadwell.

I have the 1.02 in one league - I'm praying for Zeke but if that doesn't come to fruition it's going to be tough for me to take Treadwell over Thomas, unless Thomas lands with the Rams or 49ers.

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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby DrNoish » Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:47 pm

PhadedCN wrote:
I have the 1.02 in one league - I'm praying for Zeke but if that doesn't come to fruition it's going to be tough for me to take Treadwell over Thomas, unless Thomas lands with the Rams or 49ers.
I'm in a similar deal except hoping for Treadwell, unless he lands with one of those teams.
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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby Diti51 » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:05 pm

Fantastic post. Really appreciate sharing the gifs and making them available directly on your post to prove your points.

I like Thomas a lot. The player I think may be OVER rated is Boyd. Many draft experts seem to have him rising up their boards. Listening to a podcast on Fantasy Feast with Ross Tucker, Evan Silva and the WR whisperer Matt Harmon (who does a great job with the reception perception and was one of the few who called both Crabtree and Allen Robinson having breakout years) is very low on Boyd being able to perform at NFL level due to his slight frame and lack of physicality. Did poorly against zone, man etc. So caveat emptor. He loves him some Corey Coleman too for what its worth.
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Re: Michael Thomas is really good.

Postby Diti51 » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:26 pm

Also, if you really want to know how good Thomas can be, watch Virginia Tech and Notre Dame tape. That's what put me over the top to rank as arguable #3 on board. (LT and Elliot 1/2)
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