Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

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0LDMAN
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Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby 0LDMAN » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:55 pm

*hot take alert*

If you've read my posts I am pretty low on Leonard Fournette compared to consensus.
This article:

http://www.espn.com/blog/jacksonville-j ... ats-say-no

Compares the Jags Offense with and without Fournette, and it's a pretty compelling split.
I think the time to move on from him is this season. Between his injuries (exacerbated by his punishing running style), his deficiencies as a receiver, and the mounting evidence that having him out there is a net negative to the offense, I think owners should cash in sometime this season before he crashes.
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RB: DJ, Gurley, Barkley, Ajayi, KJ, Aaron Jones, M. Breida, Chris Carson, Chris Warren, Ito Smith,
WR: OBJ, D. Adams, Tyreek Hill, AROB, Kenny Golladay, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Justin Watson, Tyler Boyd, Chad Williams, Dorsett
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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby dm1129 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:24 pm

The article even states that 3 of the 4 games without Fournette were against teams with a winning percentage barely above 30%. In other words, this entire article is really nothing. It is ridiculous to suggest that Fournette is the cause for the passing game to improve when he is not playing. Fournette is not the one throwing interceptions, incompletions, etc.....What is true is the Jaguars play calling with Fournette is painfully antiquated and unimaginative, and as a result the opportunities may be fewer or more limited throwing the ball. The idea that he is deficient as a receiver is simply not true. Fournette with a good play caller would be lethal. So I do not see this as mounting evidence that the Jags are better without Fournette nor do I do not see a crash coming.

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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby steelman » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:29 pm

There's always been something about Fournette that I didn't like (not for his price anyway). With that said, I also never liked Brandon Cooks, so...

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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby MEuRaH » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:33 pm

I owned 3 shares of Fournette. I sold all 3 shares during the off-season. I also don't like how he lost weight. RBs have a history of losing weight and then getting hurt MORE because their body takes on more damage without that extra padding.

I think he'll still be near an elite level when on the field, but it'll be a lot of guess work when it comes to injuries for his career (my best guess).
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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby 0LDMAN » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:43 pm

dm1129 wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:24 pm
The article even states that 3 of the 4 games without Fournette were against teams with a winning percentage barely above 30%. In other words, this entire article is really nothing. It is ridiculous to suggest that Fournette is the cause for the passing game to improve when he is not playing. Fournette is not the one throwing interceptions, incompletions, etc.....What is true is the Jaguars play calling with Fournette is painfully antiquated and unimaginative, and as a result the opportunities may be fewer or more limited throwing the ball. The idea that he is deficient as a receiver is simply not true. Fournette with a good play caller would be lethal. So I do not see this as mounting evidence that the Jags are better without Fournette nor do I do not see a crash coming.
I don't think it's ridiculous. Could be wrong, but the stats so far support it. The way I see it, teams have to account for a good receiving running back in ways that weakens their back end coverage, which leads to easier matchups for the QB throwing the ball. For a guy like Bortles who still has a fair few deficiencies as a passer, this is quite the difference. You may have a point about the play calling, it could definitely be that the Jags simply aren't using as much as a receiving threat that they should, that's something I didn't consider. I'll definitely be watching that aspect next time he's active.
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RB: DJ, Gurley, Barkley, Ajayi, KJ, Aaron Jones, M. Breida, Chris Carson, Chris Warren, Ito Smith,
WR: OBJ, D. Adams, Tyreek Hill, AROB, Kenny Golladay, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Justin Watson, Tyler Boyd, Chad Williams, Dorsett
TE: Kyle Rudolph, H. Henry, Jonnu Smith, Akins

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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby dm1129 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:01 pm

0LDMAN wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:43 pm
dm1129 wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:24 pm
The article even states that 3 of the 4 games without Fournette were against teams with a winning percentage barely above 30%. In other words, this entire article is really nothing. It is ridiculous to suggest that Fournette is the cause for the passing game to improve when he is not playing. Fournette is not the one throwing interceptions, incompletions, etc.....What is true is the Jaguars play calling with Fournette is painfully antiquated and unimaginative, and as a result the opportunities may be fewer or more limited throwing the ball. The idea that he is deficient as a receiver is simply not true. Fournette with a good play caller would be lethal. So I do not see this as mounting evidence that the Jags are better without Fournette nor do I do not see a crash coming.
I don't think it's ridiculous. Could be wrong, but the stats so far support it. The way I see it, teams have to account for a good receiving running back in ways that weakens their back end coverage, which leads to easier matchups for the QB throwing the ball. For a guy like Bortles who still has a fair few deficiencies as a passer, this is quite the difference. You may have a point about the play calling, it could definitely be that the Jags simply aren't using as much as a receiving threat that they should, that's something I didn't consider. I'll definitely be watching that aspect next time he's active.
The article you cite even states that the Jags faced more 8+ men in the box fronts than any other team in 2017. That is the opposite of what you are hypothesizing about back end coverage. To follow that line of reasoning, if teams do not see Fournette as a receiving threat, opposing defenses would man the box with 8+ solely run stoppers making back end coverage even more of a liability. The logic does not hold up. Bortles would have all the advantage with Fournette in the game, not out. This article is based on an anomaly that occurred against bad teams during which Fournette was not playing. If anything, it shows that play calling needs to be adjusted across the board with the Jags.

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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby Ice » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:59 pm

Banking on anything ESPN as some type of proof source that Fournette is crashing borders on foolishness.

The Jags happen to be approaching an elite team in this league with a great defense. Fournette is a very good RB. If he crashes it will be due to injury. None of the backs on that roster are close to his talent and a blind man can see it.

Fools gold thinking the team is better without him.

The thing this team really needs is consistent play from Bortles and a solid play calling from the coaches.

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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby 0LDMAN » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:07 pm

I'm not really following here. You're actually implying that teams who don't see the RB as a receiving threat actually weakens back end coverage?
Either way, that's only part of my theory here, the other parts being he hasn't been an efficient rusher, and he hasn't been healthy.
Just feels like too many red flags to me.
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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby RookieFever » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:25 pm

He is saying that since the Jags face so many 8 man fronts, throwing gets easier since there are less players in coverage.

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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby dm1129 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:33 pm

0LDMAN wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:07 pm
I'm not really following here. You're actually implying that teams who don't see the RB as a receiving threat actually weakens back end coverage?
Either way, that's only part of my theory here, the other parts being he hasn't been an efficient rusher, and he hasn't been healthy.
Just feels like too many red flags to me.
Yes. The Jags faced the most 8+ man fronts last season. The sole reason for this was Fournette. If a defense does not see the rb as a receiving threat whether that is a result of play calling or lack of ability of the rb, the personnel composing the 8+ man front will be heavily tilted towards run stoppers. These defenders are typically the least able to adjust and go into coverage if the play turns out to be a pass. A good run game opens up the passing game is one of the most basic tennets of football, in other words, advantage for Bortles. The opposite of what would be true with Fournette out which is the premise of the article. If a defense is concerned with a RB going out as a receiver, then the personnel would likely include 1 or 2 more dbs or lbs who are more adept at pass coverage and not quite as much advantage to the passing game.

With regard to Fournette not being efficient, again he faced the most 8+ man fronts in the league and the play calling seemed to take a few pages out of Jeff Fisher's book in terms of creativity.

Will he be durable? That is a valid concern that I do not think anyone can know. Dalvin Cook missed a ton of games due to injury last year and is again hurt this season, yet his durability is questioned less than Fournette's.

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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby hoos89 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:47 pm

Correlation does not equal causation: "Granted, three of those games came against Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Houston, which went a combined 15-33 last season."

Team does markedly better against shitty teams even without star back? Astounding.

Fournette's efficiency issues are probably driven not by lack of talent but more by the fact that his team faced more 8 man boxes than any other last season, which is probably due to him being perceived as a bigger threat than Blake Bortles.
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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby Friction » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:08 pm

Went to click on the link, saw ESPN in it, and stopped myself. Watching thrm dismantle th Steelers defense at home in the playoffs with nobody being able to contain him was my last convincing I needed. I think a lot of the receiving knocks he get is because he is a power back, albeit with speed. He seems to catch3-4 balls most games i watch, including Week 1. I know there are highs and lows to that and it is definitely not his stenghth. The injuries worry me with almost every RB, moreso with punishing runners like him, naturally. If he drops low enough, i will probably own him on most teams then. If i seriously only have to pay a tad more to get him over the likes of Collins, Drake, McKinnon, etc. Then count me in. I learned my lesson pasing on Marshawn over and over in his peak years, which lasted until, well, still going (not the peak part). I would say most agree Fournetteis more of a receiving threat than him, but far far more to prove as far as body of work go.
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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby dmac37 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:13 pm

Friction wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:08 pm
Went to click on the link, saw ESPN in it, and stopped myself. Watching thrm dismantle th Steelers defense at home in the playoffs with nobody being able to contain him was my last convincing I needed. I think a lot of the receiving knocks he get is because he is a power back, albeit with speed. He seems to catch3-4 balls most games i watch, including Week 1. I know there are highs and lows to that and it is definitely not his stenghth. The injuries worry me with almost every RB, moreso with punishing runners like him, naturally. If he drops low enough, i will probably own him on most teams then. If i seriously only have to pay a tad more to get him over the likes of Collins, Drake, McKinnon, etc. Then count me in. I learned my lesson pasing on Marshawn over and over in his peak years, which lasted until, well, still going (not the peak part). I would say most agree Fournetteis more of a receiving threat than him, but far far more to prove as far as body of work go.
Great points that I agree with. Bottom line, injuries will determine if he ends up being a great bell cow RB for years to come. Once I saw ESPN, I also did not even bother reading the article.
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QB: Rodgers, Goff
RB: Hunt, Fournette, Collins, A. Jones, Foreman, Gallman, Samuels, Ware
WR:OBJ, M. Thomas, K. Allen, Watkins, Ridley, C. Rodgers, Taywon Taylor, Coutee,
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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby ArrylT » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:08 pm

Fournette in his rookie year caught more passes in less games, for more yardage and yards per catch than Melvin Gordon did in his rookie year. Gordon then increased his reception total each year. Seems a little too soon to assume Fournette cannot do the same (assuming he is on the field).

Fournette 2017

36 - 302 - 8.4 - 1

Fournettes reception pace in Game 1 2018 was 48 for the entire season and that was with 12 total touches before he left

Gordon 2015-17

33 - 192 - 5.8 - 0
41 - 419 - 10.2 - 2
58 - 476 - 8.2 - 4
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Leonard Fournette, crash coming?

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:13 pm

Injury concerns aside, if Corey Grant carves out a sustained receiving role in that backfield, Fournette's value takes a hit
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