Kerryon Johnson Value

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Kerryon Johnson value

Early 1st
104
55%
Mid 1st
51
27%
Late 1st
22
12%
Early 2nd
7
4%
Mid 2nd
1
1%
Late 2nd
4
2%
 
Total votes: 189

jman3134
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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby jman3134 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:47 am

CharlieKelly wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:31 am
jman3134 wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:27 am As steady as he has been, playing Riddick over Johnson when your team is playing like they did against the Jets will get you fired. If the Lions turn it around, they can get away with playing Riddick a little more.

Johnson flashing like he did is going to put pressure on the staff. It is only a matter of time. Fanbase is justifiably unhappy.
Lol it didn't stop them from playing Riddick over Abdullah back when he was healthy.

If playing the wrong personnel at RB would get an OC fired then JBC would've been fired 3 years ago. He's been doing it constantly. For 3 years.

Also the Lions fanbase is unhappy? :lol: what else is new
There is a difference. Losing to the Jets at home like they did means they are justifiably unhappy. If this continues, jobs are definitely on the line especially considering the new HC.

It was unjustifiable maybe to fire him after a 9-7 year last season.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby Phaded » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:12 pm

I like Kerryon a lot - but I do not think this would be the last chance. His value is actually still pretty high as a mid-1st rookie RB.

I actually think his price will drop more before it spikes high.

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby jman3134 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:19 pm

Phaded wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:12 pm I like Kerryon a lot - but I do not think this would be the last chance. His value is actually still pretty high as a mid-1st rookie RB.

I actually think his price will drop more before it spikes high.
His price dropped after he had a poor preseason game and then there were rumors that he was 4th man up in the pecking order, which made no sense to me.

Even if you didnt believe this (and expected him to play last night) and were writing off that preseason game, he still flashed against the Jets and is behind one less back. His price is increasing.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby CharlieKelly » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:32 pm

jman3134 wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:47 am
CharlieKelly wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:31 am
Lol it didn't stop them from playing Riddick over Abdullah back when he was healthy.

If playing the wrong personnel at RB would get an OC fired then JBC would've been fired 3 years ago. He's been doing it constantly. For 3 years.

Also the Lions fanbase is unhappy? :lol: what else is new
There is a difference. Losing to the Jets at home like they did means they are justifiably unhappy. If this continues, jobs are definitely on the line especially considering the new HC.

It was unjustifiable maybe to fire him after a 9-7 year last season.
I don't think you understand how the Lions operate. JBC was kept on despite all of the other retooling of personnel because he's close with Stafford and he lets Stafford operate his offense the way he wants to.

This is why Stafford is annually near the top of the league in pass attempts, the Lions are annually in the bottom 3 of the league in rushing attempts, and also why the Lions haven't had a 100 yard rusher in a game since 2013 (!).

Stafford is a gunslinger for better or worse, and nobody is going to take that away from him given that he's the face of the franchise.

This is why I refuse to pay anything near a 1st for any Lions RB. They run a RBBC in a heavy pass first offense, and they will continue to do that long as Stafford is at the helm (which is going to be a long time). No RB will ever get nearly enough volume in that offense to be worth that much.

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby notweswelker » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:10 pm

CharlieKelly wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:15 am
0LDMAN wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:39 am
CharlieKelly wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:21 am

Trust me, you will be much better off waiting a month and selling Ingram after a big game. By then Kerryon owners will be selling far more cheaply.
You are pretty aptly named CharlieKelly. Mark Ingram is 28, coming off a suspension, is the #2 back in his own backfield, AND is not even tied to NO beyond this season. Most people drafted KJ with a mid-late 1st round pick. If you came to me with Ingram and a late 2019 1st I wouldn't even respond. Even if Kerryon does absolutely nothing this season, I'd still laugh you off for that offer. Kid is 21 with sky high potential. This is dynasty, owners aren't giving up on a 21 year old high draft pick because of a few weeks slow start to his rookie season, c'mon bro.
Ingram was a RB1 as the #2 back in his own backfield. Once injuries pile up and he starts producing you'll absolutely be able to get more for him than as a throw in like in this deal.

Just wait. The Lions defense sucks bleep and they're going to be playing behind plenty. People are gonna get frustrated real soon after Kerryon continues to get 7 touches per week.
If you're expecting him to produce week 1 yeah you'll get frustrated. I was expecting very little for the entire first half of the season, and outside of an arrest my valuation isn't going to change that much. I also don't think the detroit D is that bad, not great perhaps, but when your QB is tossing 4 interceptions in 3 quarters, anyone is going to looks bad.

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby notweswelker » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:19 pm

qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:07 am Sorry, but this is just silly. Stating that most people drafted KJ with a mid to late 1st, then saying you wouldn't even respond to an offer of ingram and a first because of how laughable it is makes zero sense. You may say KJ is worth more, and maybe you'd be right, but that is definitely a reasonable offer and deserves at least a no thank you. Otherwise you just come across as being an bleep.
First off, I am a bit of an asshole. Never claimed otherwise. But as a dynasty owner it's definitely a little bit of an insulting offer in a 10 or 12 team league. In a 14-16 it's more reasonable because of how valuable depth is. Maybe it's just the way I play but if I have a high valuation on a guy and someone comes to me after a week or two of the season expecting me to sell low I find it pretty insulting. That's assuming I am so shortsighted that a slow start to a rookie season is enough for me to completely overreact and change my entire valuation?
I think running out offers like that is way more insulting than getting a no response. If I try and lowball every Bell owner right now, how will they take it? Probably not very well.

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby jman3134 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:21 pm

CharlieKelly wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:32 pm
jman3134 wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:47 am
CharlieKelly wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:31 am
Lol it didn't stop them from playing Riddick over Abdullah back when he was healthy.

If playing the wrong personnel at RB would get an OC fired then JBC would've been fired 3 years ago. He's been doing it constantly. For 3 years.

Also the Lions fanbase is unhappy? :lol: what else is new
There is a difference. Losing to the Jets at home like they did means they are justifiably unhappy. If this continues, jobs are definitely on the line especially considering the new HC.

It was unjustifiable maybe to fire him after a 9-7 year last season.
I don't think you understand how the Lions operate. JBC was kept on despite all of the other retooling of personnel because he's close with Stafford and he lets Stafford operate his offense the way he wants to.

This is why Stafford is annually near the top of the league in pass attempts, the Lions are annually in the bottom 3 of the league in rushing attempts, and also why the Lions haven't had a 100 yard rusher in a game since 2013 (!).

Stafford is a gunslinger for better or worse, and nobody is going to take that away from him given that he's the face of the franchise.

This is why I refuse to pay anything near a 1st for any Lions RB. They run a RBBC in a heavy pass first offense, and they will continue to do that long as Stafford is at the helm (which is going to be a long time). No RB will ever get nearly enough volume in that offense to be worth that much.
These are all fair points, but history is a viable predictor until it isn't. First, it is clear that Johnson will get more volume than week 1 with Blount out. You could make the case that this does not yield anything startable in the next few weeks, though his dynasty value could grow on more Lions RB touches (which is the point). Let's forget the fact that he demonstrated he can pass catch, which suggests he can be an every down back.

I disagree with your assessment of how this will play out. I see two possible scenarios:

1) The Lions turn it around after this past week's romp. Stafford makes adjustments and they have another 9-7 type of year. In this case, they play from ahead some of the time and run the ball more than you are suggesting.

2) They are bad, maybe not Jets game bad, but still. Stafford is a turnover machine and keeps throwing picks. They are always playing from behind. In this case, Stafford is an injury timebomb. Did you see the way they protected him last night? He has been playing on borrowed time as it is. It is remarkable he hasn't been knocked out for the season. If game 1 repeats even remotely, Stafford will face a season ending injury.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby CharlieKelly » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:34 pm

jman3134 wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:21 pm
CharlieKelly wrote: Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:32 pm
I don't think you understand how the Lions operate. JBC was kept on despite all of the other retooling of personnel because he's close with Stafford and he lets Stafford operate his offense the way he wants to.

This is why Stafford is annually near the top of the league in pass attempts, the Lions are annually in the bottom 3 of the league in rushing attempts, and also why the Lions haven't had a 100 yard rusher in a game since 2013 (!).

Stafford is a gunslinger for better or worse, and nobody is going to take that away from him given that he's the face of the franchise.

This is why I refuse to pay anything near a 1st for any Lions RB. They run a RBBC in a heavy pass first offense, and they will continue to do that long as Stafford is at the helm (which is going to be a long time). No RB will ever get nearly enough volume in that offense to be worth that much.
These are all fair points, but history is a viable predictor until it isn't. First, it is clear that Johnson will get more volume than week 1 with Blount out. You could make the case that this does not yield anything startable in the next few weeks, though his dynasty value could grow on more Lions RB touches (which is the point). Let's forget the fact that he demonstrated he can pass catch, which suggests he can be an every down back.

I disagree with your assessment of how this will play out. I see two possible scenarios:

1) The Lions turn it around after this past week's romp. Stafford makes adjustments and they have another 9-7 type of year. In this case, they play from ahead some of the time and run the ball more than you are suggesting.

2) They are bad, maybe not Jets game bad, but still. Stafford is a turnover machine and keeps throwing picks. They are always playing from behind. In this case, Stafford is an injury timebomb. Did you see the way they protected him last night? He has been playing on borrowed time as it is. It is remarkable he hasn't been knocked out for the season. If game 1 repeats even remotely, Stafford will face a season ending injury.
1) During the Lions 9-7 season last year they were still 2nd to last in rushing attempts last season. In their 9-7 seasons in 2016 they were dead last in rushing attempts.

2) What the hell does this even mean? If Stafford has a season ending injury the whole offense will fall apart. In no way will that ever help Kerryon.

Look man, I have been watching the Lions for almost my entire life. The only constant in this offense since Stafford/JBC took over 4 years ago is they are going to pass as much as they can and run a RBBC. Stafford is not going to change the way he runs an offense because Kerryon "can be a 3 down back".

I can see you've got Kerryon as your RB2 on an absolutely loaded team, and my advice is to trade him away now while you can before we get halfway through the season and you realize you've been trying to win a championship with a RB2 who gets less than 10 touches per game.

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby jman3134 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:02 pm

1) Look I am not debating your recollection of history, nor contesting that what you are saying didn't happen. You are probably more knowledgeable about football and the Lions than I am.

That said, my argument is that this season will represent a break from history. History is the best predictor until it is not. https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/ ... 268911002/

My understanding of the Lions previous seasons was that they played two backs predominantly: Abdullah and Riddick. Abdullah is fumble prone and it makes sense that the coaching staff moved away from him towards Theo Riddick. To be clear, the stat you referenced is rushing attempts right? It would then make sense that they were only optimizing the personnel they had on hand. Riddick caught passes and isn't effective rushing the ball. This speaks more to how the staff feels about Abdullah.

This is why my point about Kerryon being a 3 down back is important. If he can pass catch and run up the middle, this allows for a more versatile playbook than someone like Riddick. This assumes he doesn't get in the doghouse for fumbling of course.

2) If Stafford goes down, that represents a departure from history- that is my point. Sure Kerryon might be in a dumpster fire offense scenario, but volume would increase. I think the Lions will make adjustments after last night and this scenario will not play out. But, either way, Kerryon gets more touches.

Also, it should be clear that we are debating two different things: perceived value vs actual value. I am suggesting his dynasty stock will increase, which is perception based. I don't personally plan on using him until he is a veritable three down back on my team. I didn't start him week 1 and am planning to hold for the long term. My commentary is about timing the buy relative to others. I don't have a strong opinion on Kerryon being start worthy for the rest of the year. Lineup considerations are different than dynasty stock. See Joe Mixon last year.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby cazzie33 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:47 pm

Let me explain it to you as probably the oldest Lion fan on this board and decently plugged in to the players.

Jim Bob is a favorite of Stafford because he was trying to LIMIT the volume of throws (i.e. hits ) that Matthew was asked to do in order to carry the team. Problem is the chicken and the egg theory is in effect. Trying to establish a running game only works when it is a viable threat.

So you run early & often ( with no success). Now you are stuck in predictable down & distance which allows teams to load up their pass rush packages. This leads to falling behind which leads throwing most every down .

Even when they come out and stay in the game or take a lead they can't sustain the run game which allows chance after chance for the opponents to catch up (which they normally do vs Lions D ) and you're back to passing to win the game.

That's what got Caldwell fired. Not putting away bad teams. Opportunity lost. Jim Bob has to be the worst play calling OC in the NFL (apologies to Buffalo) to waste the talent he has @ his disposal. But Stafford lobbied for him. Why, we have no clue but obviously if they are on the same page then it's time to tear that page out of the playbook.

There's got to be a way to dictate to the defense with quality receivers and at least decently talented linemen other than what they are doing. The best game ironically in the Caldwell/ JBC era was his last against the GB Packers. They threw with the lead as GB assumed that it would be the same old Lions run it for another 3 & out. They even called a trick play to throw a pass to Stafford in the end zone. It totally caught the Packers by surprise and slowed them up to the point where the Lions could actually run the ball.

If Kerryon flashed last night I blinked and missed it. I'd have to go back and look @ the play by play chart but I'd bet they ran early in the game to no success and threw on predictable downs til they fell behind by 10 or so. They actually caught up early 3rd qtr but special teams and a pick six put right back in the double digit deficit . From there on out it got ugly(er)

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:27 am

As an Auburn fan, I watched a ton of KJ in college. I like the player. The landing spot is awful though. Matt Patricia looks lost. They can't run the ball. It's ugly.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby ArrylT » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:04 am

I hope this thread kerryons for the next couple of weeks. :)

I concur with jman in the sense that you should have been drafting him to stash until he - like Mixon last year, Chubb this year, or those that drafted DJ in the 2nd in 2015 - is in a position to be what you think he'll be - ie the simmer approach. If you drafted him because you needed him to start for you immediately, then you're definitely going to be frustrated early on. Better to have spent your pick on an established RB then.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby Ryantacular » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:43 am

ArrylT wrote: Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:04 am I hope this thread kerryons for the next couple of weeks. :)
Omg. I just died. :clap: :clap: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby Servo » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:49 am

My Zero-RB teams' success will depend on whether or not Kerryon can take a step forward....but from it definitely appears like a valid point...How can Detriot's run game be so bad for so long? Is/Was Abdullah horrible or is a lot of it play calling?

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Re: Last Chance To Buy Low On Kerryon Johnson

Postby notweswelker » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:56 am

I think Detroit rights the ship this week, but I think it will take a while before we see a positive return on the KJ investment.
Hopefully it will improve if the defense doesn't know the plays ahead of time, like the Jets did.


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