Postby jman3134 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:02 pm
1) Look I am not debating your recollection of history, nor contesting that what you are saying didn't happen. You are probably more knowledgeable about football and the Lions than I am.
That said, my argument is that this season will represent a break from history. History is the best predictor until it is not.
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/ ... 268911002/
My understanding of the Lions previous seasons was that they played two backs predominantly: Abdullah and Riddick. Abdullah is fumble prone and it makes sense that the coaching staff moved away from him towards Theo Riddick. To be clear, the stat you referenced is rushing attempts right? It would then make sense that they were only optimizing the personnel they had on hand. Riddick caught passes and isn't effective rushing the ball. This speaks more to how the staff feels about Abdullah.
This is why my point about Kerryon being a 3 down back is important. If he can pass catch and run up the middle, this allows for a more versatile playbook than someone like Riddick. This assumes he doesn't get in the doghouse for fumbling of course.
2) If Stafford goes down, that represents a departure from history- that is my point. Sure Kerryon might be in a dumpster fire offense scenario, but volume would increase. I think the Lions will make adjustments after last night and this scenario will not play out. But, either way, Kerryon gets more touches.
Also, it should be clear that we are debating two different things: perceived value vs actual value. I am suggesting his dynasty stock will increase, which is perception based. I don't personally plan on using him until he is a veritable three down back on my team. I didn't start him week 1 and am planning to hold for the long term. My commentary is about timing the buy relative to others. I don't have a strong opinion on Kerryon being start worthy for the rest of the year. Lineup considerations are different than dynasty stock. See Joe Mixon last year.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D