Patrick Mahomes: The Best QB in the NFL & for Dynasty

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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Phaded
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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Phaded » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:33 pm

Now is clearly not the time to buy.
Just wait until he inévitably cools down.

I cannot think of one young QB that has retained top QB value recently.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Friction » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:36 pm

Who had/has a higher value? DeShaun Watson a little less than one year ago (pre-injury) or Mahomes in this moment? Or has that already been brought up in this thread? First thing that came to my mind and I have them both in leagues.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby fruity pebbles » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:41 pm

Phaded wrote: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:33 pm Now is clearly not the time to buy.
Just wait until he inévitably cools down.

I cannot think of one young QB that has retained top QB value recently.
Depends what you can get him for i guess. He was put on the trading block in 2 of the 3 leagues im in. Asking price in one is two 1sts. Other league he was traded for Dak and a mid to late 1st.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Phaded » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:43 pm

Prior to the start of the 2017 there was a lot of talk about Carr being the QB1. Dak was there too.

Even Russell Wilson took a big hit after his down year. Blake Bortles was once a top QB around here too.

Obviously Watson, it may happen with Wentz too.

And these are just some recent major examples. There are other less extreme examples too.

I am not knocking Mahomes - but from a fantasy perspective, odds are it is a mistake to buy high.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby fruity pebbles » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:06 pm

Fair point. Think hes worth a mid 1st but think youll have a hard time both buying and selling for that.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby jcc6fd » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:53 pm

Phaded wrote: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:43 pm Prior to the start of the 2017 there was a lot of talk about Carr being the QB1. Dak was there too.

Even Russell Wilson took a big hit after his down year. Blake Bortles was once a top QB around here too.

Obviously Watson, it may happen with Wentz too.

And these are just some recent major examples. There are other less extreme examples too.

I am not knocking Mahomes - but from a fantasy perspective, odds are it is a mistake to buy high.
But God is finally rewarding Kansas City for wandering 40 years in the QB desert.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring SF
QB: Mahomes, Hurts, Minshew
RB: Kamara, K. Hunt, Warren, Bigsby, D. Cook, Jamaal Williams, J. Wilson, McLaughlin, McKinnon, J. Kelley
WR: A.J. Brown, Diggs, K. Allen, C. Watson, Cooks, Pickens, W. Robinson
TE: Kelce, J. Smith, Musgrave

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:11 pm

Phaded wrote: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:43 pm Prior to the start of the 2017 there was a lot of talk about Carr being the QB1. Dak was there too.

Even Russell Wilson took a big hit after his down year. Blake Bortles was once a top QB around here too.

Obviously Watson, it may happen with Wentz too.

And these are just some recent major examples. There are other less extreme examples too.

I am not knocking Mahomes - but from a fantasy perspective, odds are it is a mistake to buy high.
Agreed, like it would be smart to sell here probably, but Im holding in hopes

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby dm1129 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:32 pm

I would not be trying to time Mahomes' value as a sell high target if an owner hopes to reacquire at a lower price later, too risky. Mahomes is nothing like Watson, Carr, Dak...etc not even remotely. You really have to look at what he is doing on the field, it is not fluky in any possible way. Mahomes and his arm paired with Hill is the engine of this entire offense. I strongly believe Reid envisioned this when he traded up Mahomes in the draft. The two of them make everyone else better and honestly I am not sure what opposing defenses will do to 'stop' them other than try put pressure on Mahomes. Hill is not only the WR1 on this team, he is very possibly going to be challenging to be the WR1 scoring in the entire league for the next several years. Undoubtedly Mahomes will have bad games at some point, if an owner panics and looks to sell, I would grab that opportunity without hesitation.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Multiple Scorgasms » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:34 am

^ Reid and Veach (GM) literally said as much. Veach, prior to becoming the GM, had been scouting Mahomes since he was a kid at TTU and was banging the table for him for years. After Reid was shown the tape, he fell in love. This wasn't some random, desperate attempt to get a QB - he was their guy. Sean Payton BADLY wanted him (another offensive genius like Reid). There's an amazing screenshot somewhere of the Texans' war room when KC traded ahead of them for Mahomes, heads in palms and looking so gutted.

But honestly, when guys like Reid and Payton want a guy, that alone tells me all I need to know. And Mahomes just confirms what they see on every pass.

People are almost afraid to make bold predictions these days; we always want to see more, prove more, wait longer - "but this guy busted, but this guy and that guy also looked good for half a year, hey maybe he's RG3" ... I'm just gonna say it, in a couple years, he's a consensus top 3 NFL QB. If I'm wrong so be it, but there's no debate that he has that talent and potential - I'm just betting with confidence that he fulfills the potential.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Orenthal Shames » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:14 am

Phaded wrote: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:43 pm Prior to the start of the 2017 there was a lot of talk about Carr being the QB1. Dak was there too.

Even Russell Wilson took a big hit after his down year. Blake Bortles was once a top QB around here too.

Obviously Watson, it may happen with Wentz too.

And these are just some recent major examples. There are other less extreme examples too.

I am not knocking Mahomes - but from a fantasy perspective, odds are it is a mistake to buy high.
This is exactly why I sell high on QB. In a 1QB, you can always buy a productive guy on the cheap.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Daltanian » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:29 am

I think Mahomes has looked awesome, but regression is coming. His current touchdown rate of 18.2% is more than double what Wentz's record breaking rate last year of 7.5% (per Andy Holloway). And while he would still have 8 touchdowns through the two games without them, 2 of his TD passes were essentially hand-offs at the goal line.

I'll be curious to see how he responds once he plays a solid defense and teams have some tape on him. The week 5 match up with Jacksonville should be fun to watch. I'm a fan and think the sky is the limit for him, but if you're looking to buy, now is probably the worst time to do so. On the flip side, if you're looking to sell, his value might never be higher. I do think he has a better chance of hitting his ceiling vs someone like Watson though.
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QB: R. Wilson, Tannehill
RB: CMC, A. Kamara, A. Ekeler, CEH
WR: D. Adams, M. Thomas, T. Lockett, AJ Green, J. Edelman, L. Fitzgerald
TE: Kittle, J. Cook,

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby jcc6fd » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:08 am

Daltanian wrote: Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:29 am I think Mahomes has looked awesome, but regression is coming. His current touchdown rate of 18.2% is more than double what Wentz's record breaking rate last year of 7.5% (per Andy Holloway). And while he would still have 8 touchdowns through the two games without them, 2 of his TD passes were essentially hand-offs at the goal line.

I'll be curious to see how he responds once he plays a solid defense and teams have some tape on him. The week 5 match up with Jacksonville should be fun to watch. I'm a fan and think the sky is the limit for him, but if you're looking to buy, now is probably the worst time to do so. On the flip side, if you're looking to sell, his value might never be higher. I do think he has a better chance of hitting his ceiling vs someone like Watson though.
I know you also account for a lack of tape on Mahomes but the Chargers are one of the best defenses in the league and he tore them up.

I think the lack of tape as a possible explanation for Mahomes success and also a reason for potential regression is a bit overplayed. Teams know what he can do and game plan for it. Yes better defensive strategy could develop but it's not like the two defenses he's faced were completely in the dark.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring SF
QB: Mahomes, Hurts, Minshew
RB: Kamara, K. Hunt, Warren, Bigsby, D. Cook, Jamaal Williams, J. Wilson, McLaughlin, McKinnon, J. Kelley
WR: A.J. Brown, Diggs, K. Allen, C. Watson, Cooks, Pickens, W. Robinson
TE: Kelce, J. Smith, Musgrave

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Phaded » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:20 am

Are the Chargers though?
They were last year (and I think we all fall victim to evaluating teams based on last year) - but without Bosa, they just do not look the same.
I mean - the Chargers allowed the Bills to put up 20.

Honestly - Mahomes is good, but I also believe that if you surround most QBs in the NFL with those weapons they would do very well.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby dm1129 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:23 am

All offseason the mantra was this offense was going to regress because it is Mahomes' first year as a starter. Now the story is the offense will regress once defenses have tape on him....it is comical.

Mahomes is also going to get better with more playing time.....

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Re: Patrick Mahomes II

Postby Orenthal Shames » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:33 am

I mean regression has to come. He's on an 80/0 pace
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2


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