OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

[Phaded]

First, I am not suggesting that OBJ is not an elite talent. I believe he is, but I also think we are going to see a production dip.

OBJ has had the "benefit" of being the only real weapon on his team for some time. That has changed, pretty significantly. The team now has Barkley, Engram and to a some extent, Shep.

We have seen what a change in targets can look like for many of the top guys - recently this includes the likes of Hopkins, Evans and Julio.

The team does not need to force feed OBJ the way that they did before. They can look to the other playmakers now. Not to mention, a declining Eli.

Now this would be moot if the Giants can become one of the top scoring offenses in the NFL - but I am not sure how many people, if any, are predicting that.

So - what does this community think? Do we still look at OBJ as a surefire top 3/top 5 FANTASY producer? Or does he slide a bit to maybe top 10? Worse?

I personally think he might slide to around the top 10 range, which is still great but not what is "expected".

What say you?

[joeya2001]

I still say that hes a Elite WR and stays in the top 3, didn't really affect AB to much with Lev Bell in the picture.

Very few guys can take a 10 yard slant for a 60 yard TD and that's what makes him so Dangerous.

If anything having all these things around him should help.

[kamihamster]

The argument goes both ways. He has better talent around him that should take away targets, but on the other hand defenses can't key in on him giving him softer coverage and theoretically more efficiency. How it all works out, no one knows.

[thebeast]

I think you guys should go back and look at how many targets he had before you worry about him losing targets. He is very efficient, and he certainly wasn't force fed.

[Fantasyfanatic11]

Having these weapons will make him even more dangerous!

[thebeast]

I think you guys should go back and look at how many targets he had before you worry about him losing targets. He is very efficient, and he certainly wasn't force fed.

Actually, maybe I'm wrong. Seems like he was the 2nd most targeted player in 2017. Carry on.

[Pew Dogs]

He's 25 years old.

Eli's decline might not hurt him too much. DeAndre Hopkins would agree, I think.

Better skill position players around him (don't like the term 'weapons' in this day and age) shouldn't hurt his numbers. Rather, they should simply help the Giant's playoff chances.

Two summers ago I traded away Larry Fitzgerald for Pierre Garçon because I thought it was time for a 'statistical decline'. I remind myself of that every time I'm tempted to do something stupid (or stupider than usual, to be specific).

[Phaded]

Having these weapons will make him even more dangerous!

In real life - sure. In fantasy I am not so sure. Evans had his monster year 2 years ago but he was amongst the top in targets, Hopkins had a bad year and not an enormous amount of targets. Evans had a bad year last year and saw a huge dip in targets, where Hopkins was one of the top and he "bounced back".

Those are just 2 examples but there are many out there. There is a direct correlation to targets and fantasy production.

One of the reasons I am asking is I have been going back and forth with the OBJ owner for a while and I feel every one of his suggestions is a big overpay. I also think OBJ takes a hit when it comes to production.

[FantasyFreak]

I think he'll be fine. Barkley could help his cause. IF they have more scoring drives, more sustained drives due to Barkley, it will help. Bell and Brown can co exist, I see no reason these two can't.

[Cameron Giles]

Actually, I'd say he's a good bounce back candidate. His numbers have already declined since his rookie season:

Yards/G

2014 - 108.8
2015 - 96.7
2016 - 85.4
2017 - 75.5 (4 games)

I think he's too good for that number to keep dropping. I see him closer to 85-90 Y/G. He won't be targeted until he's blue in the face, but he'll still get plenty of opportunity, especially in the redzone where he's posted double-digit TD's three times. He's still Eli's safety net and he'll give Beckham chances to make difficult plays.

[ap28.allday]

I think he'll be fine. Barkley could help his cause. IF they have more scoring drives, more sustained drives due to Barkley, it will help. Bell and Brown can co exist, I see no reason these two can't.

Completely agree with this. The offense as a whole should be much improved, which will in turn allow more scoring opportunities and targets. Barkley will help keep the defense honest and they cant constantly double team Odell. Think he's primed for a big year.

[mullmania]

The one thing I always wonder just based on ADP.

How is it possible for OBJ to be an elite WR 1 and Barkely an elite RB 1 and Engram a borderline TE 1 with Eli being a bottom barrel QB2.

The math just doesnt quite work out.

[Friction]

More weapons equals a more explosive offense. Even with more mouths to feed, the increase in points and yards will keep him near the top.

[Phaded]

Actually, I'd say he's a good bounce back candidate. His numbers have already declined since his rookie season:

Yards/G

2014 - 108.8
2015 - 96.7
2016 - 85.4
2017 - 75.5 (4 games)

I think he's too good for that number to keep dropping. I see him closer to 85-90 Y/G. He won't be targeted until he's blue in the face, but he'll still get plenty of opportunity, especially in the redzone where he's posted double-digit TD's three times. He's still Eli's safety net and he'll give Beckham chances to make difficult plays.

You bring up an interesting point about being a "bounce back" candidate - however, he is still being valued as high as ever so even though his yard per game has been declining it has not made him any cheaper. He is commonly thought of as the #1 overall asset and has been for years now.

You also brought up a good point with the redzone but that is part of where my concern is. I could see Barkley and Engram both really interfering with his redzone touchdowns.

More weapons equals a more explosive offense. Even with more mouths to feed, the increase in points and yards will keep him near the top.

I see the logic but I'm not sure this translates to top tier WR production.
The top 3 teams in points per game last year were the Eagles, Patriots & Rams. None of them posted an elite WR.
Even if you were to round it off to top 10 - you're including the Saints, Steelers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens & Vikings.
Not many top tier elite guys in that group. (2 for sure in MT & AB, beyond that it's debatable)


He has continually averaged 10 targets per game for his career but I'm not sure that continues.

[FantasyFreak]

Actually, I'd say he's a good bounce back candidate. His numbers have already declined since his rookie season:

Yards/G

2014 - 108.8
2015 - 96.7
2016 - 85.4
2017 - 75.5 (4 games)

I think he's too good for that number to keep dropping. I see him closer to 85-90 Y/G. He won't be targeted until he's blue in the face, but he'll still get plenty of opportunity, especially in the redzone where he's posted double-digit TD's three times. He's still Eli's safety net and he'll give Beckham chances to make difficult plays.

You bring up an interesting point about being a "bounce back" candidate - however, he is still being valued as high as ever so even though his yard per game has been declining it has not made him any cheaper. He is commonly thought of as the #1 overall asset and has been for years now.

You also brought up a good point with the redzone but that is part of where my concern is. I could see Barkley and Engram both really interfering with his redzone touchdowns.

More weapons equals a more explosive offense. Even with more mouths to feed, the increase in points and yards will keep him near the top.

I see the logic but I'm not sure this translates to top tier WR production.
The top 3 teams in points per game last year were the Eagles, Patriots & Rams. None of them posted an elite WR.
Even if you were to round it off to top 10 - you're including the Saints, Steelers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens & Vikings.
Not many top tier elite guys in that group. (2 for sure in MT & AB, beyond that it's debatable)

None of them HAD an elite WR, though.