OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby Phaded » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:06 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:56 pmNone of them HAD an elite WR, though.
True - by our standards.
However, none of them had a WR they were feeding 10+ targets to per game.

I hate extrapolating as a general rule, but what if they did?

If Jeffery's 120 targets were 160 - he is looking at a 74/1052/12 line which would put him at a 251.2 PPR points, which would have made him the WR8 last year.

Feeding targets to a player makes a difference; and while one might think OBJ could be more efficient, the loss of targets is almost definitely going to hurt his fantasy production.

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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby mullmania » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:14 pm

Targets matter and bad teams typically have more targets to go around late in games.

It's part of what made DeAndre Hopkins so elite last year.

Houston's defense imploded with the loss of JJ Watt and they went 4-12

Since they were always losing Hopkins got peppered with 174 targets in 15 games. Most in the league.

Now he had 151 in 2016 in 16 games so the possibly that Hopkins actually produces less while Houston wins more is very real.

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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby ArrylT » Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:17 pm

My thoughts are that elite players will continue to get a safe floor of targets / snaps per game. The quality and quantity of which will change from year to year depending on surroundings / circumstances.

Going back to 2002, the lowest # of targets the 12th most targeted WR got was 132, and usually in the 140-145 range. That does not mean you cannot be a WR1 without getting top 12 targets - just that obviously you need to be more efficient.

Golden Tate & Marvin Jones for example were basically WR11-12 but target wise they were#14 and #21 overall.

I think this means we will find out soon enough if Beckham was made by his targets or not. If he can still get 140-150 targets and be a mid to top WR1 then the concern is likely all for naught - because targets will change from year to year.

Also this assumes that Engram will eat up targets from Beckham. A TE1 can need as few as 80 targets and still be a TE1, as I've shown on an earlier thread discussing Engrams value.

Assuming Manning will still make 540+ attempts, and Beckham can draw at least 23-25% - then he'll get a minimum of 140. If Manning passes for more or Beckham draws a larger percentage - then his target count could still reach 160ish.

That may actually mean AJ Green is one of the most under-appreciated WRs of the past 10 years (go look at his average target count per game for entire career).
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby jeffster » Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:44 am

One thing that might protect his target share a bit, also, is the fact that he's coming up contract time,and is known to be a bit of a prima donna.

Assuming he's still productive with his touches, which we have no reason not to believe, it makes a ton of sense for negotiations to keep feeding him.

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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby honcho55 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:13 am

mullmania wrote: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:11 pm The one thing I always wonder just based on ADP.

How is it possible for OBJ to be an elite WR 1 and Barkely an elite RB 1 and Engram a borderline TE 1 with Eli being a bottom barrel QB2.

The math just doesnt quite work out.
Normally I’m on your side with this, particularly when lookin at projections, think I remember a recent year where bell+brown was something like 90% of roethlisbergers yards. What about the rest of the team?

But, I can draw up a theoretical line where OBJ is WR2 and Barkley is RB7 and Engram is a nice TE asset, and Eli is still basically a non asset, no problem. Even if he runs up to QB12 or so, who wants that, at his age and signs of decline? Maybe in a QB committee (which I’ve yet to see work) he’s valuable but bottom line if you look at ADP, it all works out. Guys that wanted to spend capital on QBs did, and guys like Eli are gonna fall and fall.

As for OBJ himself, I don’t foresee a problem. It goes both ways, but I’m more in the camp of: an improved offense benefits everyone, in general.
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby BigBawseRoss » Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:07 am

no
team 1
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1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Dak , Herbert
Achane, Breece Hall, KW3Kyren,Ford, Miller, Spiller, z evans, singletary
J Jefferson, Diggs, DK, D Smith Puka, C Watson, E Moore
Njoku , HH, Engram

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1,3,4,5,5,6,7 (all late mostly)

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Fields, Dak
Ford,Mixon, Javonte, Mostert, Chubb, Spears
Hopkins, Evans, g Wilson Mingo, shaheed, Jamo
Kelce,McBride, Chig,


1,2,3,3,5

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Josh Allen, A Rich, Foles, Rudolph
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby joeya2001 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:26 am

BigBawseRoss wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:07 amno
you do make a good point, I can see that
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby Vcize » Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:28 am

mullmania wrote: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:11 pm The one thing I always wonder just based on ADP.

How is it possible for OBJ to be an elite WR 1 and Barkely an elite RB 1 and Engram a borderline TE 1 with Eli being a bottom barrel QB2.

The math just doesnt quite work out.
In 2005 the Giants had a top 3 RB, top 3 TE, and top 12 WR yet Eli finished with only 3762-24-17 which would have been QB17 last year in total pts and QB25 in ppg.
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby joeya2001 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:34 am

Vcize wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:28 am
mullmania wrote: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:11 pm The one thing I always wonder just based on ADP.

How is it possible for OBJ to be an elite WR 1 and Barkely an elite RB 1 and Engram a borderline TE 1 with Eli being a bottom barrel QB2.

The math just doesnt quite work out.
In 2005 the Giants had a top 3 RB, top 3 TE, and top 12 WR yet Eli finished with only 3762-24-17 which would have been QB17 last year in total pts and QB25 in ppg.
13 years later he might do it again!!!
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TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.

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(This is a rebuild team selling vets)
QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
RB AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard,
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TE Hock, Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Otton, Ertz
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby nathanq42 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:37 am

While he might not get 170 targets (wouldn't be surprised if he still was in that ball park.) I don't think he will be bleep affected as Evans was this past year. Evans is a big jump ball receiver, but he isn't dynamic with the ball in his hands. He makes a catch and chances are he will get 3 YAC because he falls forward. So he needs the targets to be productive.

OBJ on the other hand is arguably the most dynamic player in the NFL, especially in space. Obviously the more targets the better. But I would argue that since OBJ can take any 6 yard slant to the house at any time, the extra space he gets to play with will more than offset the potential drop in targets.

The Giants offense is setup to hit home runs all day long, with some safety valves to keep drives alive.

Don't have 8 or 9 in the box? Barkley is a threat to score every play

Don't double or triple cover obj? He is a threat to score every play

Focus personnel on those two? Engram and shep can work the open space to march down the field (safety valves)

Eli might actually be a good play, but I think he won't be QB1 numbers with a high powered offense because he has unlucky turnovers
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby Vcize » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:16 am

joeya2001 wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:34 am
Vcize wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:28 am
mullmania wrote: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:11 pm The one thing I always wonder just based on ADP.

How is it possible for OBJ to be an elite WR 1 and Barkely an elite RB 1 and Engram a borderline TE 1 with Eli being a bottom barrel QB2.

The math just doesnt quite work out.
In 2005 the Giants had a top 3 RB, top 3 TE, and top 12 WR yet Eli finished with only 3762-24-17 which would have been QB17 last year in total pts and QB25 in ppg.
13 years later he might do it again!!!
Well that was the only other time they had a fantasy RB1, WR1, and TE1. Point being just because you have those doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be an elite fantasy QB.

Plug in the numbers that people are projecting in the passing game for Barkley, OBJ, and Engram and that still leaves a HUGE gap in passing production before you get into elite QB territory. Dodds for instance has all three as top 10 options with them combining for 2200 yards receiving and 15 TDs which is still a long ways off from the 4800/40 Eli would need to be a top fantasy QB since he doesn't run at all. Granted Dodds has low numbers for Barkley as a receiver compared to most but even if you added another 300-400 yards and a couple more TDs to that it still leaves Eli a long ways off.
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby Lotto4Life » Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:56 am

Vcize wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:28 am
mullmania wrote: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:11 pm The one thing I always wonder just based on ADP.

How is it possible for OBJ to be an elite WR 1 and Barkely an elite RB 1 and Engram a borderline TE 1 with Eli being a bottom barrel QB2.

The math just doesnt quite work out.
In 2005 the Giants had a top 3 RB, top 3 TE, and top 12 WR yet Eli finished with only 3762-24-17 which would have been QB17 last year in total pts and QB25 in ppg.
Eli was QB4 that season. You can't use rankings from one era for some positions but hold other positions to new era standards.

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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby Vcize » Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:59 pm

Lotto4Life wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:56 am
Vcize wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:28 am
mullmania wrote: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:11 pm The one thing I always wonder just based on ADP.

How is it possible for OBJ to be an elite WR 1 and Barkely an elite RB 1 and Engram a borderline TE 1 with Eli being a bottom barrel QB2.

The math just doesnt quite work out.
In 2005 the Giants had a top 3 RB, top 3 TE, and top 12 WR yet Eli finished with only 3762-24-17 which would have been QB17 last year in total pts and QB25 in ppg.
Eli was QB4 that season. You can't use rankings from one era for some positions but hold other positions to new era standards.
Yeah but those RB/WR/TE numbers would still have been RB1/WR1/TE1 numbers today. Tiki's numbers from that year would have made him RB2 last year, Plax would have been WR8 last year, and Shockey would have been TE4 last year. Yet Eli still would only have been QB17 last year.

Again, point being it is plenty reasonable to have three guys be top 10 at their position and not have their QB be as much. Those guy's numbers would have made them all top 10 at their position by modern standards yet that all only accounted for 2500 passing yards and 16 TDs between the three of them, which leaves a long ways to go for the QB to finish as an elite fantasy QB.
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Re: OBJ - Is it time for a statistical decline?

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:04 pm

Vcize wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:59 pm
Lotto4Life wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:56 am
Vcize wrote: Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:28 am

In 2005 the Giants had a top 3 RB, top 3 TE, and top 12 WR yet Eli finished with only 3762-24-17 which would have been QB17 last year in total pts and QB25 in ppg.
Eli was QB4 that season. You can't use rankings from one era for some positions but hold other positions to new era standards.
Yeah but those RB/WR/TE numbers would still have been RB1/WR1/TE1 numbers today. Tiki's numbers from that year would have made him RB2 last year, Plax would have been WR8 last year, and Shockey would have been TE4 last year. Yet Eli still would only have been QB17 last year.

Again, point being it is plenty reasonable to have three guys be top 10 at their position and not have their QB be as much. Those guy's numbers would have made them all top 10 at their position by modern standards yet that all only accounted for 2500 passing yards and 16 TDs between the three of them, which leaves a long ways to go for the QB to finish as an elite fantasy QB.
If anyone regresses it will be Engram, not OBJ. Engram was the beneficiary of OBJ missing the season, and Shepard and Marshall also missing time. There was nobody else to throw to.
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