Value of WRs verses RBs

[MARKinMI]

yup, I have a feeling that that draft post is going to put this thread over 100 posts

[Team Canada]

No offense Canada, and if I'm mistaken I'll apologize ahead of time but isn't the league your talking about the one that has various new member to this site asking questions about lopsided trades and other crazy questions. Again I'm not trying to be offensive but this sounds like a startup league with lots of people who are new to dynasty football. (im assuming this by the questions and SOME of the comments I read from your league mates) They sounded like rookie questions. I'd expect the draft to go about the same as a redraft would. Again not trying to be demeaning, and we all started somewhere. its just that a lot of us have been doing this format for 5-10+ yrs and you pick up on stuff that you wouldn't otherwise.

yea thats the league. u dont think im one of those ppl who asks rookie questions?

LOL... I'm glad you didn't take my comment wrong. I honestly don't remember who posted what I just remember a few crazy draft/ trade question!

I think im starting to get the hang of this dynasty league stuff! my team is atleast top 4 in my league imo and i have amazing depth at RB and WR

[BradyT]

yet another draft where Calvin got selected 1.1. It's not as crazy as some around here are making it out to be.

http://football34.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 46606&O=17

Picks #1 to #11 are in and Ray Rice is still available..... are you kidding me???

[Team Canada]

yet another draft where Calvin got selected 1.1. It's not as crazy as some around here are making it out to be.

http://football34.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 46606&O=17

Picks #1 to #11 are in and Ray Rice is still available..... are you kidding me???

crazy ray rice is a top 5 pick

[BradyT]

yet another draft where Calvin got selected 1.1. It's not as crazy as some around here are making it out to be.

http://football34.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 46606&O=17

Picks #1 to #11 are in and Ray Rice is still available..... are you kidding me???

crazy ray rice is a top 5 pick

Went off at #12... GREAT value!! The guy sitting there must be happy.. getting Ray Rice at #12 and then Greg Jennings on the turn at #13.

[kris_kapsner]

Ok, I've gone on record defending the "elite RB" is more valuable that the "elite WR" side of this argument. And, I still feel that way even though I've carefully read through every post and I took a break from arguing just to digest this issue.

The points I've taken away from the discussion so far:

PPR doesn't make the WRs more valuable in my opinion. More productive? Yes. But, it levels them out more so there is less disparity from the top few to perhaps even the mid teens in scoring. The reason for that is simple. In TD heavy scoring a WR who scores double digit TDs is a monster. The WR who can do that year after year for his career is worth an absolute fortune in that scoring system. TO and Moss were so dominating in formats like that. Who could touch them over the last decade in TD heavy leagues? In PPR formats TO gets passed up by guys like Wes Welker. All of sudden there are a whole bunch of "elite" WRs. PPR doesn't raise their value. It makes them more productive but also levels the playing field a bit among all WRs.

Young "stud-elite" WRs are almost as valuable as the elite RBs. This would be Calvin Johnson in particular. And, I don't disagree with this argument. In fact, 2 seasons ago I did a start up draft and I drafted Calvin in the 1st round. That was the Summer of 2009 and I found Chris Johnson smiling at me on my turn around in the 2nd. So, I was ecstatic. My rationale for drafting Calvin in the later 1st of a 12 team league at the time was that I thought he was going to be an absolute stud for the next decade. But, the next couple rounds were spent finding young highly talented RBs because I knew how valuable they were. A year later, just before this last season, I traded Chris Johnson for Jamaal Charles plus 2 1st round picks. Then Charles blew up and I'm way ahead.

To continue my example from above, Calvin Johnson would not have fetched me the same value. If I went to trade Calvin for any young elite RB in my league like Chris Johnson, ADP, McCoy or whatever, I'd have to add something to my side. The reason for that is those guys are SO rare. The elite young RBs are truly special and a highly valued commodity.

The elite talent of the WR doesn't necessarily over compensate them in value when compared to a possibly "lesser" talent at RB that is young and producing at a high level. Just take our rookie drafts as examples first. Go back 2 years. Who was the most talented player in the draft according to many experts? It was Crabtree. Who was the most talented player in last year's draft? Many said Dez Bryant. Who is the most talented in the upcoming draft? Most are saying AJ Green. The year Crabtree came out there are half a dozen WRs who are now considered to have "elite" talent. Yet most were not taken 1st in their drafts. And, I think AJ Green will not go 1st in the majority of the drafts this year either.

The top 10 is only so BIG gentlemen. When I was doing my rankings for our members average I was surprised at the level of WR talent all the way into the 20's. It's amazing. And yet, once I hit my RB7, I had to pause. At that point I thought the RBs started to have question marks, whether that be age, production, system, injuries, surrounding cast, ectetera. The WRs were just SO much deeper in my eyes.

Because of that, you still see the top of start up drafts dominated with RBs, you still see rookie drafts follow a similar format and you still have to pay FAR more to get one of those elite RBs in trade than you would for a WR like Roddy, Fitz, Calvin, Andre, Nicks or whoever. It's because the RB is more valuable.

[dlf_ericd]

Ok, I've gone on record defending the "elite RB" is more valuable that the "elite WR" side of this argument. And, I still feel that way even though I've carefully read through every post and I took a break from arguing just to digest this issue.

The points I've taken away from the discussion so far:

PPR doesn't make the WRs more valuable in my opinion. More productive? Yes. But, it levels them out more so there is less disparity from the top few to perhaps even the mid teens in scoring. The reason for that is simple. In TD heavy scoring a WR who scores double digit TDs is a monster. The WR who can do that year after year for his career is worth an absolute fortune in that scoring system. TO and Moss were so dominating in formats like that. Who could touch them over the last decade in TD heavy leagues? In PPR formats TO gets passed up by guys like Wes Welker. All of sudden there are a whole bunch of "elite" WRs. PPR doesn't raise their value. It makes them more productive but also levels the playing field a bit among all WRs.

Young "stud-elite" WRs are almost as valuable as the elite RBs. This would be Calvin Johnson in particular. And, I don't disagree with this argument. In fact, 2 seasons ago I did a start up draft and I drafted Calvin in the 1st round. That was the Summer of 2009 and I found Chris Johnson smiling at me on my turn around in the 2nd. So, I was ecstatic. My rationale for drafting Calvin in the later 1st of a 12 team league at the time was that I thought he was going to be an absolute stud for the next decade. But, the next couple rounds were spent finding young highly talented RBs because I knew how valuable they were. A year later, just before this last season, I traded Chris Johnson for Jamaal Charles plus 2 1st round picks. Then Charles blew up and I'm way ahead.

To continue my example from above, Calvin Johnson would not have fetched me the same value. If I went to trade Calvin for any young elite RB in my league like Chris Johnson, ADP, McCoy or whatever, I'd have to add something to my side. The reason for that is those guys are SO rare. The elite young RBs are truly special and a highly valued commodity.

The elite talent of the WR doesn't necessarily over compensate them in value when compared to a possibly "lesser" talent at RB that is young and producing at a high level. Just take our rookie drafts as examples first. Go back 2 years. Who was the most talented player in the draft according to many experts? It was Crabtree. Who was the most talented player in last year's draft? Many said Dez Bryant. Who is the most talented in the upcoming draft? Most are saying AJ Green. The year Crabtree came out there are half a dozen WRs who are now considered to have "elite" talent.

The top 10 is only so BIG gentlemen. When I was doing my rankings for our members average I was surprised at the level of WR talent all the way into the 20's. It's amazing. And yet, once I hit my RB7, I had to pause. At that point I thought the RBs started to have question marks, whether that be age, production, system, injuries, surrounding cast, ectetera. The WRs were just SO much deeper in my eyes.

Because of that, you still see the top of start up drafts dominated with RBs, you still see rookie drafts follow a similar format and you still have to pay FAR more to get one of those elite RBs in trade than you would for a WR like Roddy, Fitz, Calvin, Andre, Nicks or whoever. It's because the RB is more valuable.

Not bad takeaways, but I think you pinpointed something that wasn't really clear in the original post. If you are talking about the top 4-7 RB's projected vs the top 4-7 WR's projected, then I can see your point. But if you take someone like Turner or SJax who are getting older, but would be found in the top 4-7 in scoring (obviously depending on the year), then I'd take the WR b/c of length of career.

If I'm picking in the top 5 of a startup draft, chances are I'm taking one of the 4-7 the legit every down stud running backs. After that, I'm probably taking the young stud WR.

In a rookie draft though, I wouldn't follow that pattern necessarily because we don't know if the RB is going to become a stud or even if they will ever be an every-down back. So yes, it would be a gamble, but I'm of the opinion that you take the better talent in a rookie draft, regardless of position and/or need. All rookie picks are a gamble, so instead of playing it safe(r), I'm going for the highest possible return.

[MR ROURKE]

Is a top RB worth more then a WR.... yes.

Your question is whether we'd rather have an elite RB or elite WR. I thought you were asking a question of preference and not really value of them compared to each other.

I'd rather have a top WR, because I can get by with decent RB production and win. I'd trade one of those top RB's to some poor guy and take his elite WR + something in the deal and likely beat him every week. If I get a top RB because I can't trade down in a startup, I trade them because people give way too much to aquire them. That doesn't make it right, but at some point people will be figuring that out eventually. RB's can be had every year, but a WR typically takes time before you can count on them. You are garunteeing a stud top WR in the discussion, so I'd take the WR over the RB. Perhaps, I should say I'd take the RB and flip him for a stud WR + something.

[kris_kapsner]

Is a top RB worth more then a WR.... yes.

Your question is whether we'd rather have an elite RB or elite WR. I thought you were asking a question of preference and not really value of them compared to each other.

I'd rather have a top WR, because I can get by with decent RB production and win. I'd trade one of those top RB's to some poor guy and take his elite WR + something in the deal and likely beat him every week. If I get a top RB because I can't trade down in a startup, I trade them because people give way too much to aquire them. That doesn't make it right, but at some point people will be figuring that out eventually. RB's can be had every year, but a WR typically takes time before you can count on them. You are garunteeing a stud top WR in the discussion, so I'd take the WR over the RB. Perhaps, I should say I'd take the RB and flip him for a stud WR + something.

Now we are certainly agreeing on something.

In my very first post I said this:

"I personally have a double edged answer. I "like" WRs better but would rather own the young stud RB.

There are many reasons for me liking the WR better, most of which have already been mentioned. I love the long shelf life. I love the fact that they tend to not get "used up" relatively quickly in the NFL. I like that even after they start to fade and other WRs start to take their thunder away, they can still be productive because every NFL team plays 2-3 of them for most of the game. I also like that they tend to be more durable over the season because they aren't taking a pounding."

After some explaining I also followed that up with:

"So to me it's not a matter of who I would rather own, it's a matter of who is more valuable. And, the value is definitely hedged in the direction of RBs. The truly good ones are tough to find."

So yes, I think we are on the same page...with me leaning a little more one way than you are. But, I think we agree on some of this.

I have been a proponent of trading RBs when they turn 27. I was laughed at on these boards for saying that back in 2006. Now, that's the general strategy for many. But, there's no player that will fetch you more in a trade than a young stud RB. And that's what I mean by "value". I guess value can be interpreted in more than one way.

To me I perceive value like this. Each player is a currency. Each owner is his own nation. When you go to one country the dollar might be worth more than if you presented that same dollar to a different country. This is where buying low and selling high becomes an art form in our hobby. It's what I enjoy most. We all have who and what we value most for our teams. Some may value youth and upside more than anything. To those owners I trade my rookie picks. Other owners may value RBs more than any other position. To those owners I trade my RBs. Others may value aging players more than most and overestimate the number of years a player has left in the tank in my eyes. To those owners I trade the aging players. It sounds so simple and yet far too few dynasty owners implement such a simple concept.

What I've seen is that the majority of owners still value the young elite RB more than any position for reasons already stated. And therefore, so do I...so I can make trades that consistently grow my team equity.

[RichDynastyFB]

Is a top RB worth more then a WR.... yes.

Your question is whether we'd rather have an elite RB or elite WR. I thought you were asking a question of preference and not really value of them compared to each other.

I'd rather have a top WR, because I can get by with decent RB production and win. I'd trade one of those top RB's to some poor guy and take his elite WR + something in the deal and likely beat him every week. If I get a top RB because I can't trade down in a startup, I trade them because people give way too much to aquire them. That doesn't make it right, but at some point people will be figuring that out eventually. RB's can be had every year, but a WR typically takes time before you can count on them. You are garunteeing a stud top WR in the discussion, so I'd take the WR over the RB. Perhaps, I should say I'd take the RB and flip him for a stud WR + something.

That's an interesting philosophy, but I don't think it works in fantasy. If you're getting by with "decent" RB production, then you need depth at the position. I just traded Nicks for Cedric Benson, Michael Bush, and Louis Murphy. As a consequence, I was able to retain Ahmad Bradshaw, and I could then drop Bess as my 4th highest scorer.

Now I retain the 1.5 in the 2011 Rookie/FA draft, and I'd much rather be looking for a WR there than a RB, even tho McFadden has been released during the offseason, and should go at 1.1. that only increases my odds of grabbing J. Jones or Green.

[MARKinMI]

Is a top RB worth more then a WR.... yes.

Your question is whether we'd rather have an elite RB or elite WR. I thought you were asking a question of preference and not really value of them compared to each other.

I'd rather have a top WR, because I can get by with decent RB production and win. I'd trade one of those top RB's to some poor guy and take his elite WR + something in the deal and likely beat him every week. If I get a top RB because I can't trade down in a startup, I trade them because people give way too much to aquire them. That doesn't make it right, but at some point people will be figuring that out eventually. RB's can be had every year, but a WR typically takes time before you can count on them. You are garunteeing a stud top WR in the discussion, so I'd take the WR over the RB. Perhaps, I should say I'd take the RB and flip him for a stud WR + something.

That's an interesting philosophy, but I don't think it works in fantasy. If you're getting by with "decent" RB production, then you need depth at the position. I just traded Nicks for Cedric Benson, Michael Bush, and Louis Murphy. As a consequence, I was able to retain Ahmad Bradshaw, and I could then drop Bess as my 4th highest scorer.

Now I retain the 1.5 in the 2011 Rookie/FA draft, and I'd much rather be looking for a WR there than a RB, even tho McFadden has been released during the offseason, and should go at 1.1. that only increases my odds of grabbing J. Jones or Green.

What??? You traded Nicks for Bush, Benson & Murphy? I don't think you got one starter in return for a top 4 Dynasty WR..... Somebody dropped McFadden outright? What's going on in this League?

[MR ROURKE]

Is a top RB worth more then a WR.... yes.

Your question is whether we'd rather have an elite RB or elite WR. I thought you were asking a question of preference and not really value of them compared to each other.

I'd rather have a top WR, because I can get by with decent RB production and win. I'd trade one of those top RB's to some poor guy and take his elite WR + something in the deal and likely beat him every week. If I get a top RB because I can't trade down in a startup, I trade them because people give way too much to aquire them. That doesn't make it right, but at some point people will be figuring that out eventually. RB's can be had every year, but a WR typically takes time before you can count on them. You are garunteeing a stud top WR in the discussion, so I'd take the WR over the RB. Perhaps, I should say I'd take the RB and flip him for a stud WR + something.

That's an interesting philosophy, but I don't think it works in fantasy. If you're getting by with "decent" RB production, then you need depth at the position. I just traded Nicks for Cedric Benson, Michael Bush, and Louis Murphy. As a consequence, I was able to retain Ahmad Bradshaw, and I could then drop Bess as my 4th highest scorer.

Now I retain the 1.5 in the 2011 Rookie/FA draft, and I'd much rather be looking for a WR there than a RB, even tho McFadden has been released during the offseason, and should go at 1.1. that only increases my odds of grabbing J. Jones or Green.

What??? You traded Nicks for Bush, Benson & Murphy? I don't think you got one starter in return for a top 4 Dynasty WR..... Somebody dropped McFadden outright? What's going on in this League?

I wouldn't have traded Nicks. If you have mandatory top drops in the league, I would have dropped someone other then Nicks. Trading Nicks to keep Bradshaw was backwards to me. I would have traded Bradshaw, who is no where near the talent that Nicks is, to keep Nicks.

Getting buy with decent RB talent doesn't mean you need depth... it just means you don't have a top elite RB. I count Bradshaw as "decent" and he's one the the RB's I put in that catagory. I lost the championship game this last year in a contract league with Hillis, Bradshaw, Green, and Forte. Hillis I picked up off the WW dirt cheap. Bradshaw and Forte I picked up before the season started in trade for the 1.05 pick, because neither of their values were high last April. I don't need AP, CJ, MJD, R.Rice or any of those guys to win games.

[kris_kapsner]

I don't need AP, CJ, MJD, R.Rice or any of those guys to win games.

It sure does help though.

[Madtoker]

I don't need AP, CJ, MJD, R.Rice or any of those guys to win games.

It sure does help though.

Might of been that one of those players would have won the championship for you though

[MR ROURKE]

I don't need AP, CJ, MJD, R.Rice or any of those guys to win games.

It sure does help though.

Might of been that one of those players would have won the championship for you though

Nope... I lost the Championship because I took over a really crappy team in a contract league for a challenge and I just started to rebuild it. Since I had to buy out a ton of crappy contracts this year to set me up for future domination, my cap was maxed out this year by week 8. So, I couldn't bid on players to fill my injury needs. The league starts 2 safety's, 2 CB's, and 3 DL. I was starting 1 DL, 1 S, 1 CB. I lost because the other guy barely beat me with 4 more guys on his side. If I wasn't rebuilding a crappy team, I would have had plenty of cap to put some bodies in my lineup that would have scored enough points to win. I lost the championship with a team that the majority of the league felt was the worst team in the league (next to worst at best) as of Jan 2010 with proper investment in value players and not trying to over pay for some stud RB to anchor my team.