Value of WRs verses RBs

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby Mangelo » Sat Feb 12, 2011 7:15 pm

kris_kapsner wrote:

Also, if you analyze the "bust rate" of WRs verses RBs, there is factual evidence to support the theory that drafting WRs is much riskier than drafting RBs. The reason I think this is the case is there is much more to being a good WR than just physical ability. That's why we see so many 3rd round or later WRs become long term starters in the NFL and so many 1st round WRs bust. It comes down to perfecting their game with route running and being on the same page as the QB. Unlike a RB who pretty much just has to know which hole is supposed to open up on each run play, a WR has to have a fuller understanding of the intricacies of his profession. Yes, a RB needs to understand pass protections. But, even if he doesn't understand those too well, he'll make it out onto the field due to his pure ability. The same can't be said for WRs because they do the team no good if they can't get open because they run poor routes or are in a different place than the QB expects them to be.

Another thing to consider is how much value a potential "bust" RB continues to hold verses a potential "bust" WR. How much value do guys like Donald Brown and Chris Wells still have? Quite a bit in most leagues, just because they are young 1st round pick RBs. Yet, if WRs show as little as they have to this point, you won't get much for them in trade, even if that doesn't seem quite fair. So, when you invest a pick, as they say in the auto sales world, your "trade in" value is much higher with the RB verses the WR. And, on the flip side, when each position shows greatness, I've never seen a WR traded for nearly as much as I've seen some elite RBs go for.

So, the value to me truly favors the RB.
Completely disagree with many points in this thread but I'd like to see the factual evidence you speak of. As for Donald Brown and Chris Wells, I'd say Crabtree has been just as big a disappointment and I'd still rather have him over both those guys. As a matter of fact he just went at 5.5, wells at 6.2 and Donnie fell to 9.5 in the draft i've been observing: http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/20 ... 63356&O=17

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Feb 12, 2011 7:16 pm

standard_variance wrote:
49ersFaithful80 wrote:I disagree, Id much rather have a young stud WR than a young stud RB. WR's have much longer shelf lives, RB's reach middle age and their values start to fall off a cliff.
Scarcity is what makes value. Diamonds and gold are valuable because they are very rare and precious stones. Same with RB's. Even though WR's may be more productive over time that is what, in fact, makes them less valuable. There are less STUD RB's and even less that are YOUNG STUDS. If YOUNG WR's generally last longer, and as a whole WR's are more productive, that also means that OVER TIME there are more - productive WR's meaning they are actually LESS VALUABLE. Also it really depends on the league starting requirements....The problem with young RB's is knowing which ones are going to last through and through..
Very well put.

One thing I'm noticing from doing my rankings right now is that I can easily go beyond the 60 WRs asked for with guys that are producing right now or have decent upsides. I can't say the same for my RB ranking list that I'm working on.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
D: Vikings

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Feb 12, 2011 7:38 pm

Mangelo wrote:
kris_kapsner wrote:

Also, if you analyze the "bust rate" of WRs verses RBs, there is factual evidence to support the theory that drafting WRs is much riskier than drafting RBs. The reason I think this is the case is there is much more to being a good WR than just physical ability. That's why we see so many 3rd round or later WRs become long term starters in the NFL and so many 1st round WRs bust. It comes down to perfecting their game with route running and being on the same page as the QB. Unlike a RB who pretty much just has to know which hole is supposed to open up on each run play, a WR has to have a fuller understanding of the intricacies of his profession. Yes, a RB needs to understand pass protections. But, even if he doesn't understand those too well, he'll make it out onto the field due to his pure ability. The same can't be said for WRs because they do the team no good if they can't get open because they run poor routes or are in a different place than the QB expects them to be.

Another thing to consider is how much value a potential "bust" RB continues to hold verses a potential "bust" WR. How much value do guys like Donald Brown and Chris Wells still have? Quite a bit in most leagues, just because they are young 1st round pick RBs. Yet, if WRs show as little as they have to this point, you won't get much for them in trade, even if that doesn't seem quite fair. So, when you invest a pick, as they say in the auto sales world, your "trade in" value is much higher with the RB verses the WR. And, on the flip side, when each position shows greatness, I've never seen a WR traded for nearly as much as I've seen some elite RBs go for.

So, the value to me truly favors the RB.
Completely disagree with many points in this thread but I'd like to see the factual evidence you speak of. As for Donald Brown and Chris Wells, I'd say Crabtree has been just as big a disappointment and I'd still rather have him over both those guys. As a matter of fact he just went at 5.5, wells at 6.2 and Donnie fell to 9.5 in the draft i've been observing: http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/20 ... 63356&O=17
What are you disagreeing with? That I said more early draft pick WRs bust than RBs? Well, that's a fact. I don't have the time or energy right now to outline it here. I'll just let you read Jeff's articles on this site that breaks it all down very thoroughly looking at just 1st round picks alone.

You do have your annually updated article coming for all of us to view don't you Jeff? Otherwise I better get cracking and spend some time breaking all of that down for this gentleman. :D

As for Crabtree being just as much of a disappointment in your eyes, if that's true for you it's only because you expect more from a top 4 rookie pick WR than you do a RB. Crabtree has been serviceable as a fantasy player for both of his seasons, just not elite. Rookie year 48 catches, 625 yards and 2 TDs in 12 games. 2nd season 55 catches, 741 yards and 6 TDs. Both of those seasons are decent yet not great. Wells had a decent rookie year with 793 yards rushing and 7 TDs. But, he fell off huge in his 2nd season with 397 yards and 2 TDs. Brown has been abysmal for a 1st round pick in both seasons, 281 and 3, 497 and 2. If you ask most people they'll tell you Crabtree isn't looking like a bust and just needs a QB while that "bust" tag has been thrown around in regards to both Brown and Wells. So, I'm not sure what you're saying there.

Just food for thought, DeAngelo Williams went in the 9th round or later in many start up drafts the year he blew up for 18 TDs and was the #1 scoring RB in most leagues that year. :wink:
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
D: Vikings

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby Mangelo » Sat Feb 12, 2011 7:51 pm

Crabs gotten 1366 yards and 8 TDs, Wells 1407 total yards and 9 TDs in 2 years. Is this not similar production and bad enough to call them disappointments? sorry man, Crab hasn't been servicable at all. he had 6 good games this year and killed you the rest but I'd still rather have him.

I'm not sure what the point of the DeAngelo reference is. If anything it's a case for drafting stud WRs then backfilling with upside RBs. It would have worked the same this year if someone drafted Foster and Bradshaw, then picked up Hillis.

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby Steelersfan » Sat Feb 12, 2011 8:00 pm

Personally I would take the stud RB over the stud WR. Like many others have said there are so many more WR's than RB's that are fantasy worthy therefore you have to take supply and demand into the equation.

Another thing to consider is that it's true that WR's have a longer shelf life, but WR's also take more time to develop which makes the difference in shelf life closer than it appears.

In the DLF Invitational League I started 3 of these stud WR's each week:

Fitz
Calvin
Marshall
Moss
Nicks

My record? 8-5... :thumbdown:

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Feb 12, 2011 8:36 pm

Mangelo wrote:Crabs gotten 1366 yards and 8 TDs, Wells 1407 total yards and 9 TDs in 2 years. Is this not similar production and bad enough to call them disappointments? sorry man, Crab hasn't been servicable at all. he had 6 good games this year and killed you the rest but I'd still rather have him.

I'm not sure what the point of the DeAngelo reference is. If anything it's a case for drafting stud WRs then backfilling with upside RBs. It would have worked the same this year if someone drafted Foster and Bradshaw, then picked up Hillis.
Just throwing out the DeAngelo reference because you said Donald Brown went in the 9th and it just brought back memories. That's all. 8-)

As for Crabtree being worthless this year, he scored 120 points in my league. That was good for WR39. Certainly not great. But, when you are starting 3-4 WRs in a 16 team league, that put him solidly in WR3 territory in just his 2nd season. That production coupled with his lack of serviceable QB makes him still very sought after by most dynasty owners.

At Mark, that's a very good point about having to wait for WRs to become serviceable. RBs who are going to be very good usually hit right away unless they are sitting behind an established starter who is very good...or they play for John Fox. :D

Most WRs, even the great ones have a steep learning curve, which I alluded to in my lengthy post. Heck, people were giving up on Bowe until this year. People had given up on Roddy White after his 2nd year. Vincent Jackson took his time really not breaking out until his 4th year and I know a lot of people had given up on him.

The article I was referring to that Jeff puts out is very good. It breaks down the bust rate for WRs and RBs. And, when you look at the numbers, what leaps out at you right away is that unless a WR is drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft, the WRs drafted in the 1st round are more likely to bust than to become serviceable fantasy players. RBs on the other hand are more likely to become serviceable than to bust. And, because of their scarcity on top of that, they become far more valuable in general as compared to WRs drafted in the 1st round unless you get very lucky and hit a stud WR out of the gate. That's not likely though.

Just a comparison, the #1 scoring rookie RB in most leagues this year was Jahvid Best. He was a top 4 pick in most drafts and was the 3rd RB taken in the NFL draft. The #1 scoring WR this year was Mike Williams. He was a 2nd round pick in most rookie drafts unless you had yours later in the Summer and was the 13th WR taken in the NFL draft. Was that an anomaly? Look at what last year's rookie class did this year. LeSean McCoy was a top 5 pick in rookie drafts and finished as the 2nd best RB in my league. He was the 3rd or 4th RB taken in last year's rookie drafts most likely. The best WR was Nicks and he came much later in rookie drafts, typically #8 or later. So, while you needed a top 5 pick to get a shot at a stud RB, you only needed a later 1st round pick to nab Nicks, or Harvin, or Maclin, or Britt...

The reality is that WRs are easier and cheaper to come by than young stud RBs.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
D: Vikings

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Feb 12, 2011 8:49 pm

One more "quick" note: :D

When I am building up a dynasty team I like to look at my players as "currency", not players.

I ask myself, what is this guy worth right now and what do I think he'll be worth in the future? If I feel like he's hit close to his peak value I sell him. I don't care what his name is. I don't care if he plays for my favorite team. I don't care if he plays a position where my team is thin. If he's peaked in value I sell.

I look for the "currency" that is undervalued. I don't care what position he plays or if I'm buying a guy who plays a position I'm already strong in. I buy if his value is undervalued and I sell if his value is over valued.

It is not until I have reached sort of a peak of dynasty "power" with my team that I start to look at which players in the NFL I actually would like to own.

If you do this with your team when you first get it started you will be far more successful in my opinion.

When looking at rating the "currency" value of any given player, the league itself will dictate. But, I've never seen a league where WRs were worth more than RBs. So, if you are buying and selling to increase the power of your team the way I feel all dynasty owners should try to do, you should want that young RB more than that young WR because your team will gain in equity.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
D: Vikings

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby MARKinMI » Sat Feb 12, 2011 9:10 pm

I think your speaking in Broad brush terms but some leagues are more subjective. I traded Andre Johnson for Charles & Mendy a 1/3 way into the season. You can't talk about guys like Tampa Mike like they're AJ or Roddy. The truely elite WRs do it every week on a more consistant basis and those guys aren't as common as some people are making it seem. In an era where RBBC seems to be ruling the NFL landscape I'd argue its not as difficult to find good RBs. I won 2 redraft leagues (just using as a counter point ) by picking up blount, hillis & torain off the WW. when my RBs I drafted early were hurt & ineffective. I had 3 losses between the 2 teams combined and that was a non ppr.

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby tstafford » Sun Feb 13, 2011 7:26 am

kris_kapsner wrote: Another thing to consider is how much value a potential "bust" RB continues to hold verses a potential "bust" WR. How much value do guys like Donald Brown and Chris Wells still have? Quite a bit in most leagues, just because they are young 1st round pick RBs.
I think this is a interesting point that warrants some more dialog. I also agree with your notion of players being "currency".

One of the trends I've seen in my league is that people are willing to cut bait with the rookie WRs far too quickly. This probably supports Kris's comment. We do a two round rookie draft. In 2010 12 WRs were picked (out of 24 picks). Of the 12 WRs, 5 of them were on the wire for a least a period of time during the season. And every one of them is now rostered again. The point here is that really increases the value of picking RBs. If you know, with some reasonable hope, that second round WRs can be had via the WW, why not take RBs during the rookie draft? I'm sure some of the specifics of my league impact this too - we only have 20 roster spots and it's a contract league with max five year contracts.

That brings me to the contract league comment. I think being in a contract league really effects this entire thread. We get two picks per year, nine total contract years and max per player is five years. Picks and years are traded a separate assets. But net/net: Five years max. This makes it nearly impossible to pick a QB (IMHO). Some have correctly said it takes a while for WRs to produce, the same is true and then some for QBs. Is it really worth using a pick, clogging up a roster spot for Jimmy Claussen? The WRs have the same issue too. For every Tampa Mike, there is DT, G. Tate, A. Benn. The only WR who was picked in our round one (we draft immediately after the NFL draft) that did anything was Dez and what he did was fairly marginal. My point is this again shifts the value to the RB. Because effectively by the time a guy is producing you've lost at least 1/5 of his time on your team. And that's if you're lucky.

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby MattyICE » Sun Feb 13, 2011 8:42 am

When looking at a stud RB or WR, I define a "good" game as breaking into double digits for points scored. A "bad" game is scoring in single digits.
This approach is probably a little over simplified BUT I think it gives good insight into player consistency. I did some quick and dirty research of the top 10 scorers from last season at each position. what I found was quite a surprise, as I fully expected to find that RBs were more consistent in their scoring than WRs. The top players at each position had 4-6 single digit scoring efforts on the year. There was NOT a significant difference between positions. GIVEN that the discussion is based on PPR and that WRs have a longer NFL life span than RBs, I would say that WRs are more valuable.
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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby standard_variance » Sun Feb 13, 2011 5:35 pm

MattyICE wrote:When looking at a stud RB or WR, I define a "good" game as breaking into double digits for points scored. A "bad" game is scoring in single digits.
This approach is probably a little over simplified BUT I think it gives good insight into player consistency. I did some quick and dirty research of the top 10 scorers from last season at each position. what I found was quite a surprise, as I fully expected to find that RBs were more consistent in their scoring than WRs. The top players at each position had 4-6 single digit scoring efforts on the year. There was NOT a significant difference between positions. GIVEN that the discussion is based on PPR and that WRs have a longer NFL life span than RBs, I would say that WRs are more valuable.
The problem in your research is based on comparing a sample of top WR's to top RB's...but thats an incorrect way of assessing WR value versus RB value. Hence why you are not seeing the larger picture. You need to look at the top WR's in comparison to WR's as a whole, versus top RB's in comparison to RB's as a whole. Comparing RB 1 to RB 50 is how you determine positional value ...not comparing RB1 to WR1 ....if you look at WR's AS A WHOLE and RB's AS A WHOLE you will find that AS A WHOLE WR's top to bottom produce more than RB's top to bottom. Additionally you will see that when comparing the top 5 players at RB and at WR in comparison to the top 50 players at RB and at WR that the drop-off amongst RB's is MUCH steeper, and that there are many more productive WR's, this scarcity is why top production at the RB position is more valuable, while this abundance among WR production AS A GROUP is what in fact makes top WR's less valuable.

THE FACTS
The more of something there is the less valuable it is
The less of something there is the more valuable it is

AS A WHOLE
There are more productive WR's
and
There are less productive RB's

THUS
top RB's are more valuable than top WR's
"We must be keenly alive to the defects of our own faith also, yet not leave it on that account, but try to overcome those defects." -Ghandi

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby Mangelo » Sun Feb 13, 2011 6:26 pm

yet another draft where Calvin got selected 1.1. It's not as crazy as some around here are making it out to be.

http://football34.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 46606&O=17

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby kris_kapsner » Sun Feb 13, 2011 7:43 pm

Mangelo wrote:yet another draft where Calvin got selected 1.1. It's not as crazy as some around here are making it out to be.

http://football34.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 46606&O=17
And the next 4 picks so far are RBs. There are always those think differently. My guess is the guy picking #2 was ecstatic.

Don't get me wrong, I love Calvin Johnson. But, those young RBs that went after him are worth more in my opinion.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
D: Vikings

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby standard_variance » Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:18 am

Mangelo wrote:yet another draft where Calvin got selected 1.1. It's not as crazy as some around here are making it out to be.

http://football34.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 46606&O=17
Its not about it being crazy...its about mathematics and odds. Picking Randy Moss at number 1 many years ago wasnt crazy at all. Nothing is 100%. Theoretically ANY draft strategy COULD work, and any type of team COULD WIN...but its about which strategy provides the best CHANCES - most OFTEN. Choosing Calvin at 1.1 and Shonn Greene at 2.12 is not much different than choosing Arian Foster at 1.1 and Sidney Rice at 2.12

The draft is not won in the earlier rounds....though it can be lost there. The draft is won in the later rounds. Thats where draft skill, research and odds come into play. The earlier rounds are ALL ABOUT setting your team up for the LATER ROUNDS. So technically Calvin going at 1.1 doesnt tell us much of anything in this sense. As Kris mentioned the next 4 picks were RB's and thats not a coincidence.

I will say this though....the RB position has gone through a nice turnover in the past 2-3 years sporting a handful of highly productive RB's. Dynasty wise RB's are a little deeper than normal...but they will never be as deep as WR's.
"We must be keenly alive to the defects of our own faith also, yet not leave it on that account, but try to overcome those defects." -Ghandi

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Re: Value of WRs verses RBs

Postby MR ROURKE » Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:23 am

Stud WR for me. I can win with decent RB play and there seems to always be WW RB's to be had.

No one has addressed the fact that RB's are losing value and they are about to lose even more value.

The age of the WR winning your FF leagues has been coming for a while and I think it's here. Those that don't see it are going to be doomed to lose. With the RBBC spreading through the league and now the season likely getting longer. I think that with 18 games, you "stud" RB is going to have his touches per week cut to keep him healthy through the season and expand the RBBC even further. This will continue the decline of the FF RB and promote the FF WR. The main RB will be putting up less and his breather RB will be putting up more. This will make the RB position even easier to fill and get decent production from, since more RB's will have value.


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