Release the Guice! - The Derrius Guice Discussion Thread

[Reljac]

He's no longer my #2 in value. He lost a full year of his NFL career that's a lot of value for RBs. He also battled knee injury issues in 2017, so this is not new for him. Some already viewed him as having passing game limitations, he won't be getting the reps this year to work through that. I hate to see this as Guice was one of my favorites in this class for sure and I was higher on him than most. I just don't usually bet to much on RBs missing all reps for at least 1 year. Especially when due to their legs.

Fantasy labs put together some analysis in 2015 (analyzing all ACL tears for RBs 1999 through 2013) that pointed towards decrease success post ACL tear.
[

There conclusion pointed towards successful recoveries for AP & Jamaal Charles, but noted:
"Despite a few success stories, there are also plenty of examples of running backs regressing in a big way following ACL tears: Rashard Mendenhall, Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson."

https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/do ... acl-tears/

[Ice]

Penny, he's the 1.02 anyway IMO.

Agree

[dcavery]

If you are not in need of immediate RB production and you're sold on Guice more than anyone else take him anyway. Or you could trade back to 1.03-1.04 and likely take him there. Or take Penny. I believe in DDs running back report and it graded Penny alongside Guice.

So in terms of trading back a couple slots, what do you think is fair compensation. I was looking at getting the 1.04 plus the 2.09 FA for my 1.02 and 4.11 in a 12 team league that has 2 rookie rounds and 8 FA rounds.

[C_n_red_again]

Actually I think if we look back in a few years I think the second best rookie to come out of this draft is going to be Courtland Sutton. Camp reports have him as Denver’s best wr so far in camp dominating everyone that tries to cover him.

[Reljac]

If you are not in need of immediate RB production and you're sold on Guice more than anyone else take him anyway. Or you could trade back to 1.03-1.04 and likely take him there. Or take Penny. I believe in DDs running back report and it graded Penny alongside Guice.

So in terms of trading back a couple slots, what do you think is fair compensation. I was looking at getting the 1.04 plus the 2.09 FA for my 1.02 and 4.11 in a 12 team league that has 2 rookie rounds and 8 FA rounds.

Depends on the league, in my league you'd have to fork up an additional rookie 1st to move from 4 to 2. The guy with 1.2 wanted 1.6 and 1.9 from me, so I stayed put and with Guice injury I stand a good chance of getting him + another great pick.

[jcc6fd]

He's no longer my #2 in value. He lost a full year of his NFL career that's a lot of value for RBs. He also battled knee injury issues in 2017, so this is not new for him. Some already viewed him as having passing game limitations, he won't be getting the reps this year to work through that. I hate to see this as Guice was one of my favorites in this class for sure and I was higher on him than most. I just don't usually bet to much on RBs missing all reps for at least 1 year. Especially when due to their legs.

Fantasy labs put together some analysis in 2015 (analyzing all ACL tears for RBs 1999 through 2013) that pointed towards decrease success post ACL tear.
[

There conclusion pointed towards successful recoveries for AP & Jamaal Charles, but noted:
"Despite a few success stories, there are also plenty of examples of running backs regressing in a big way following ACL tears: Rashard Mendenhall, Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson."

https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/do ... acl-tears/

Great post! Question though, does the study take into account that the “success stories” are more recent, maybe indicating our rehab methodology and surgery skill/technologies have improved? I can’t name an RB in the last 5 years who was young and had an ACL tear affect their ability after returning.

Maybe this is just a situation where the recent examples are clouding our judgement because by chance they were successful, but I’m thinking it’s possible medicine has improved. Not a doctor obviously.

[thebeast]

Ugh. For a dynasty forum there are a lot of short term thinkers. RBs get injured. Go ahead, pick a guy with lesser talent and wait until he has an injury. Not many rbs make it through a career without a significant injury. This reminds me of when everyone sold Charles or AP after their acl tears, savvy owners scooped them up and reaped rewards, while over reactors lost. Tell me, what rb had an acl inury then had their talent decline?

Had to lay this one down, though. Rashard Mendenhall, first round pick of the Steelers. He was never the same aferewards. It essentially ruined his career. I agree not to drop Guice down too much (tier drop, but it does happen)

So like 1 guy out of the many RBs that have torn their acl didn't come back to the same level? Mendenhall was also pretty injury prone throughout his career. The data is out there, you are virtually guaranteed to return 100% after an acl tear. Heck, I've torn my acl and I didn't have the doctors and trainers the nfl has and I am definitely stronger and faster, etc. than I was before my acl tear. I obviously could have achieved the same without tearing my acl, but my point is it doesn't limit you and the physical therapy typically gets you to a place better than where you were before the injury.

[thebeast]

He's no longer my #2 in value. He lost a full year of his NFL career that's a lot of value for RBs. He also battled knee injury issues in 2017, so this is not new for him. Some already viewed him as having passing game limitations, he won't be getting the reps this year to work through that. I hate to see this as Guice was one of my favorites in this class for sure and I was higher on him than most. I just don't usually bet to much on RBs missing all reps for at least 1 year. Especially when due to their legs.

Fantasy labs put together some analysis in 2015 (analyzing all ACL tears for RBs 1999 through 2013) that pointed towards decrease success post ACL tear.
[

There conclusion pointed towards successful recoveries for AP & Jamaal Charles, but noted:
"Despite a few success stories, there are also plenty of examples of running backs regressing in a big way following ACL tears: Rashard Mendenhall, Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson."

https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/do ... acl-tears/

I'd love to see age and usage prior to the acl tears. Many of those backs seemed to have been entering the susnset of their careers already or had injuries on top of injuries (Kevin Smith).

[jeffster]

Guice. Every rb is 1 snap away from a torn acl. You shouldn’t be playing dynasty if you’re a short term thinker.

Should you be playing fantasy football at all if you don't do any short term thinking? You need to balance the two, which means Guice goes down in value. And Guice isn't 1 snap away from a torn ACL, he's 0 snaps away.

The only way you still take Guice at 1.02 is if you had everyone not Barkley or Guice way, way behind, so the drop off from your 1.02 to your 1.03 is huge.

[Jason]

Everyone saying Penny isn't concerned at all with Chris Carson running with the starters still? If Penny doesn't have the backfield to himself year 1, with how pitiful that line is, is he not as useless in fantasy as Guice at that point?

[bjd5211]

Guice. Every rb is 1 snap away from a torn acl. You shouldn’t be playing dynasty if you’re a short term thinker.

Should you be playing fantasy football at all if you don't do any short term thinking? You need to balance the two, which means Guice goes down in value. And Guice isn't 1 snap away from a torn ACL, he's 0 snaps away.

The only way you still take Guice at 1.02 is if you had everyone not Barkley or Guice way, way behind, so the drop off from your 1.02 to your 1.03 is huge.

And I did have Guice as the solo tier 2 player in this draft. I understand there's a risk with any injury, but ultimately think the likelihood of him making a full recovery plus the reward of him being the player I expect him to be outweighs the likelihood and risk of this injury affecting him long-term. Neither of us is wrong in our valuation, because that's what this game is all about, if everyone universally agreed on the value of every single player it would be very boring.

[bjd5211]

Everyone saying Penny isn't concerned at all with Chris Carson running with the starters still? If Penny doesn't have the backfield to himself year 1, with how pitiful that line is, is he not as useless in fantasy as Guice at that point?

I've been advocating for Guice as still being the #2, but neither of these issues with Penny concern me much. If Penny was your #2 take him, if he was your #3 but the injury knocks Guice down in your eyes then take Penny. Offensive lines make big turnarounds quickly all the time in the NFL, they have a new coach and some new players, I think it's entirely possible they are an above average group this year. As for Carson, we've seen in recent years that it's possible to have 2 fantasy relevant RBs on the same team, and they didn't invest a 1st round pick in Penny not to use him. If Carson plays well they'll probably split time until Carson can leave as a free agent, but Penny is going to get his work.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

If Carson plays well they'll probably split time until Carson can leave as a free agent

You think Penny and Carson are going to evenly split work for 3 years?

[bjd5211]

If Carson plays well they'll probably split time until Carson can leave as a free agent

You think Penny and Carson are going to evenly split work for 3 years?

It will probably be something similar to Freeman and Coleman in Atlanta. And I'm not saying that's what I expect to happen, one guy will probably beat out the other, with Penny getting the most chances to do so, but if both guys play well they will obviously use both.

[dcavery]

In response to several of the comments, in my opinion I had Guice in his own tier after Barkley and then the third tier of Penny, Chubb, and maybe Michel.

Our league has some rather peculiar roster rules in which I could take advantage if I still went with Guice. We have contract year roster limits whereas year to year you have a cap on a max amount of total contract years you can keep. Each year the contract year increments by 1. That being said, we have a couple provisions. We have a small taxi squad where you can put players with 3 years experience or less. While in that designation, their contract years do not increment. You can keep players on the taxi squad for a max of 3 years. We also have a couple IR slots. If you designate someone on the IR prior to Oct 1, you get a contract year exemption as well.

My thinking is this--I go ahead and draft Guice looking at the long game. This year, I won't put him on the taxi squad but instead will use the IR designation. Then next year I'll throw him on the taxi squad until I see that he becomes a viable starter. This method could allow me to control him for a bit longer without the contract years incrementing.

In the end, I'm just not sold on Penny or Chubb for various reasons. I don't like the O-line in Seattle and thing Seattle is a downward spiral for fantasy relevance. The quagmire in Cleveland's backfield along with the Browns being the Browns sours me on Chubb. I like Chubb's skills but I'd be more keen if he were in a better situation. The only reason I'd pick someone besides Guice is because I think they could seriously help me on my starting lineup this year. Since I don't believe that to be the case, I'm going back to my original though that Guice will pan out to be the better back among all of them and just wait a year to start to see if I'm right. I did try to trade back to 1.03 or 1.04 to get some compensation and still get Guice but the offers weren't worth it.