Luck - Still top 5?

[Cameron Giles]

I think Luck is going to put up big numbers this year. This Colts team isn't good. Can't run the ball and can't stop anyone on D. Their only way to win is passing. Luck is going to be airing it out. Shoulder be damned.

[kadun2]

At this point it is all mental preparation and adjustment. He looks stronger than ever and reports are that he is throwing well. I put him somewhere between 5 and 10 this year. Top 5 for sure next year if he has no setbacks.

This is the real question on how we value him, though. Listening to some local Indy shows, they are cautiously optimistic, but he had setbacks last year, and the possibility of one is real, but is that enough to lower him below top 5? That's up to the individual, and I don't think either side is wrong. There is a risk factor, and it depends how you see that factor.

I get that, but a few of the other top 5 guys are recovering from injury also. We don’t know how Watson and Wentz will come along and yet they are being ranked above Luck. I guess with Luck it should be a top 5-7 ranking contingent on him being fully healed and back to normal. I can understand that and be on-board with that. Risk is the factor, you are correct there.

[Vcize]

The big concern even if he does come back healthy will be if it affects his willingness to run (same concern for Wentz), because those rushing stats are an important part of his value.

Without rushing stats a QB basically has to be Brady/Peyton/Brees to be a top 5 guy consistently. Which is one of the reasons it's crazy that people are so high on Garoppolo. He doesn't run so you're banking on him being Brady/Peyton/Brees good. Luck doesn't have to be that good because his average rushing stats are the equivalent fantasy points to 11 extra passing TDs each year.

[murphysxm]

He never left my top 5

[Jason3123]

Man, people have amnesia or something. Go back to sleep kiddos.

[Chwf3rd]

No

Russ
Rodgers
Wentz
Watson
Cam
Jimmy G
Goff
Stafford
Cousins
Mariota

I would have above him. Luck would be in the tier of Dak, Winston, Mahomes, Brady, Brees depending on risk vs upside and immediet production or not needs. Luck may have the most upside of this tier, but also biggest flop chance. I'd take all 10 of the guys listed above over Luck even if I was a gambler

Watson doesn’t have risk relying on a 5 game sample size? Jimmy G doesn’t have risk with a similarly small sample size? What about one good season for Goff and Mariota?

Absolutely crazy to me to have Luck outside the top 5. He missed 1 year and a half and everything is looking incredibly positive right now. I think people are forgetting just how talented he is: one of the best QB prospects of all time and a guy who almost single handily led an awful Colts team to the playoffs as a very young QB.

[Ray Finkle]

He never left my top 5

He never left my top 3

[Phaded]

I think Luck is going to put up big numbers this year. This Colts team isn't good. Can't run the ball and can't stop anyone on D. Their only way to win is passing. Luck is going to be airing it out. Shoulder be damned.

This is a good point and truthfully, it is a lot of the reason I am personally low on Luck. I may have been the lowest on him on this community even pre-injury. When I watch Luck play, I see his fantasy production coming more from situation than it does talent. That said, the Colts are STILL a bad team and that will only help him for fantasy.

[Chwf3rd]

I think Luck is going to put up big numbers this year. This Colts team isn't good. Can't run the ball and can't stop anyone on D. Their only way to win is passing. Luck is going to be airing it out. Shoulder be damned.

This is a good point and truthfully, it is a lot of the reason I am personally low on Luck. I may have been the lowest on him on this community even pre-injury. When I watch Luck play, I see his fantasy production coming more from situation than it does talent. That said, the Colts are STILL a bad team and that will only help him for fantasy.

Really don’t get this take. When has Luck ever had a good supporting cast? Kind of a weird argument to make that Luck is benefitting from having a crappy team. Sure being down on the scoreboard can help passing production but he isn’t Bortles circa 2015.

[FantasyFreak]

At this point it is all mental preparation and adjustment. He looks stronger than ever and reports are that he is throwing well. I put him somewhere between 5 and 10 this year. Top 5 for sure next year if he has no setbacks.

This is the real question on how we value him, though. Listening to some local Indy shows, they are cautiously optimistic, but he had setbacks last year, and the possibility of one is real, but is that enough to lower him below top 5? That's up to the individual, and I don't think either side is wrong. There is a risk factor, and it depends how you see that factor.

I get that, but a few of the other top 5 guys are recovering from injury also. We don’t know how Watson and Wentz will come along and yet they are being ranked above Luck. I guess with Luck it should be a top 5-7 ranking contingent on him being fully healed and back to normal. I can understand that and be on-board with that. Risk is the factor, you are correct there.

Yes, but ACL vs throwing shoulder is a bit different in perceived risk for most.

[kadun2]

[/b]

This is the real question on how we value him, though. Listening to some local Indy shows, they are cautiously optimistic, but he had setbacks last year, and the possibility of one is real, but is that enough to lower him below top 5? That's up to the individual, and I don't think either side is wrong. There is a risk factor, and it depends how you see that factor.

I get that, but a few of the other top 5 guys are recovering from injury also. We don’t know how Watson and Wentz will come along and yet they are being ranked above Luck. I guess with Luck it should be a top 5-7 ranking contingent on him being fully healed and back to normal. I can understand that and be on-board with that. Risk is the factor, you are correct there.

Yes, but ACL vs throwing shoulder is a bit different in perceived risk for most.

Ha ha... and perception is reality

[Ice]

Interesting comments;

Luck is a generational talent. He is as good as anyone provided he is healthy. Some of the names I have seen listed above him are laughable so I figure they must be a joke.

[Goddard]

If healthy, yes... easily

This should be everyone's response.

[skip]

You guys are crazy. I only see 4 guys i'd rather have than Luck. Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz and Watson.

I concur with this list. And even then, I don't think I'd absolutely put all 4 in front of him.

[Phaded]

I think Luck is going to put up big numbers this year. This Colts team isn't good. Can't run the ball and can't stop anyone on D. Their only way to win is passing. Luck is going to be airing it out. Shoulder be damned.

This is a good point and truthfully, it is a lot of the reason I am personally low on Luck. I may have been the lowest on him on this community even pre-injury. When I watch Luck play, I see his fantasy production coming more from situation than it does talent. That said, the Colts are STILL a bad team and that will only help him for fantasy.

Really don’t get this take. When has Luck ever had a good supporting cast? Kind of a weird argument to make that Luck is benefitting from having a crappy team. Sure being down on the scoreboard can help passing production but he isn’t Bortles circa 2015.

Never said that he was bad - or that he is like Blake Bortles.

Andrew Luck has never been very efficient - he has always been a volume based passer.
His career best YPA is 7.8; last year alone, 9 starting quarterbacks (not going to count Mahomes because it was one game) were more efficient.

Now - I know for fantasy, efficiency is not what scores you the points but it is raw stats.
Once again, if the Colts continue to be a disaster with no run game or defense (as they have been recently and will probably be this year); that will be good for Luck's fantasy production.
Of course there are exceptions who maintain insane volumes for a long time (see: Drew Brees) but in the majority of situations - expecting that volume long-term is not a good expectation to bank on.

I am also skeptical of a quarterback with shoulder issues slinging the ball 600 times in a year. It is one thing to sling it in small doses in training camp, but how will his shoulder go as we get further into the year?

Luck is a find guy to have because of his upside; but it would be stupid to put all your eggs in that basket. You need a contingency plan or Luck needs to be your QB2.