Luck - Still top 5?

[ArrylT]

I think Luck is going to put up big numbers this year. This Colts team isn't good. Can't run the ball and can't stop anyone on D. Their only way to win is passing. Luck is going to be airing it out. Shoulder be damned.

This is a good point and truthfully, it is a lot of the reason I am personally low on Luck. I may have been the lowest on him on this community even pre-injury. When I watch Luck play, I see his fantasy production coming more from situation than it does talent. That said, the Colts are STILL a bad team and that will only help him for fantasy.

Really don’t get this take. When has Luck ever had a good supporting cast? Kind of a weird argument to make that Luck is benefitting from having a crappy team. Sure being down on the scoreboard can help passing production but he isn’t Bortles circa 2015.

Bortles was like 6-7 points away from being a QB1 in 2017, and was a QB1 in 2016 as well. I think that is part of Phadeds argument, is that you do not need to be elite to put up elite Fantasy production. There are plenty of people who think Brees is a QB1 for fantasy but would never put him in their greatest QBs ever.

[Vcize]

No idea why people have Garoppolo anywhere near the top 5.

I know this is kind of a side-topic from this thread, but for me Garoppolo finds himself in the mix for being one the best fantasy QBs based on three things: 1. He's looked pretty good when he's played... 2. He's tied to Kyle Shanahan for the foreseeable future... 3. He's 26 years old... That's enough upside for me to take the chance and have him in my top-10 QBs very solidly. When it comes down to it, there's no way I'm taking him ahead of Stafford or probably Watson in a start-up draft, but after that I'd start to think really hard about it.

Garoppolo's problem is that he doesn't run at all so he basically has to be Peyton/Brady/Brees good to be an elite fantasy QB. If Luck is merely Stafford/Ryan level good then he is an elite fantasy QB because the 350/3 he averages on the ground are worth as many fantasy points as an extra 12 passing TDs.

[LaDarius]

I'm interested to hear some updated thoughts regarding Luck after his first two games. Has actually seeing him on the field reduced any health concerns? Has he looked good enough on the field for people to bump him up their rankings?

[mild]

I'll play - we're playing Dynasty, and it's still all about that long term outlook. His whole situation reminds me of Drew Brees - potentially career ending injury, with the upside of being a top 3 QB in three years time, or out of the league if he blows up his arm again.

The buy low window has definitely passed, if that's what you're wondering. Probably more of a buy "semi low". He's not got the deep ball back yet, but he was always an elite decision maker so the short game will suit him fine, and if his arm can keep regaining strength then it appears he is out of the woods... I would buy if he could be had for a discount on the dollar. The upside is worth it.

[jetsfan5757]

I hope he gets somewhere back to his old self. Traded Cousins and John Ross for Luck after week 1. Feeling like it was a bad move so far, but once I saw him healthy I figured it was worth the shot. QB has really been a sore spot in my lineup so far though this year (QB and TE).

[hoos89]

This is a good point and truthfully, it is a lot of the reason I am personally low on Luck. I may have been the lowest on him on this community even pre-injury. When I watch Luck play, I see his fantasy production coming more from situation than it does talent. That said, the Colts are STILL a bad team and that will only help him for fantasy.

Really don’t get this take. When has Luck ever had a good supporting cast? Kind of a weird argument to make that Luck is benefitting from having a crappy team. Sure being down on the scoreboard can help passing production but he isn’t Bortles circa 2015.

Bortles was like 6-7 points away from being a QB1 in 2017, and was a QB1 in 2016 as well. I think that is part of Phadeds argument, is that you do not need to be elite to put up elite Fantasy production. There are plenty of people who think Brees is a QB1 for fantasy but would never put him in their greatest QBs ever.

Bortles was QB12 in my league last season, and QB11 the season before. And he was what...QB4 in 2015? Seems weird to me how he's considered essentially worthless by a lot of people.

[remedy29]

Really don’t get this take. When has Luck ever had a good supporting cast? Kind of a weird argument to make that Luck is benefitting from having a crappy team. Sure being down on the scoreboard can help passing production but he isn’t Bortles circa 2015.

Bortles was like 6-7 points away from being a QB1 in 2017, and was a QB1 in 2016 as well. I think that is part of Phadeds argument, is that you do not need to be elite to put up elite Fantasy production. There are plenty of people who think Brees is a QB1 for fantasy but would never put him in their greatest QBs ever.

Bortles was QB12 in my league last season, and QB11 the season before. And he was what...QB4 in 2015? Seems weird to me how he's considered essentially worthless by a lot of people.

He was agreeing, regarding fantasy football, Bortles is fine. Real life footbal thel Jaguars are certainly not sold he can lead them to a championship. The two are very different, I hope you'd understand.

Even given Luck's injury concerns, there is no doubt the jaguars would love to change QBs from Bortles to Luck.

[hoos89]

Didn't mean to say that the poster I was responding to was saying Bortles is worthless in fantasy, just referring to how he's often ranked as like the QB30.

[trc]

Didn't mean to say that the poster I was responding to was saying Bortles is worthless in fantasy, just referring to how he's often ranked as like the QB30.

With good reason - yes he puts up numbers, but if you never really can be sure the JAGs keep him (the real life bad QB thing). Based on that he is really just a rental option.

[jetsfan5757]

Didn't mean to say that the poster I was responding to was saying Bortles is worthless in fantasy, just referring to how he's often ranked as like the QB30.

With good reason - yes he puts up numbers, but if you never really can be sure the JAGs keep him (the real life bad QB thing). Based on that he is really just a rental option.

This used to be my take on him. I am now convinced he will stick as long as the defense is good and they have Fournette. Why make a change, presumably to a rookie? I guess they could turn the team over to a Tyrod Taylor or Teddy Bridgewater, but I think the most likely outcome, by far, is that they stay the course with him...

[thebeast]

I'll play - we're playing Dynasty, and it's still all about that long term outlook. His whole situation reminds me of Drew Brees - potentially career ending injury, with the upside of being a top 3 QB in three years time, or out of the league if he blows up his arm again.

The buy low window has definitely passed, if that's what you're wondering. Probably more of a buy "semi low". He's not got the deep ball back yet, but he was always an elite decision maker so the short game will suit him fine, and if his arm can keep regaining strength then it appears he is out of the woods... I would buy if he could be had for a discount on the dollar. The upside is worth it.

Luck is not an elite decision maker, he is actually a poor decision maker which results in him turning the ball over far too frequently of the course of his career.

[trc]

I'll play - we're playing Dynasty, and it's still all about that long term outlook. His whole situation reminds me of Drew Brees - potentially career ending injury, with the upside of being a top 3 QB in three years time, or out of the league if he blows up his arm again.

The buy low window has definitely passed, if that's what you're wondering. Probably more of a buy "semi low". He's not got the deep ball back yet, but he was always an elite decision maker so the short game will suit him fine, and if his arm can keep regaining strength then it appears he is out of the woods... I would buy if he could be had for a discount on the dollar. The upside is worth it.

Luck is not an elite decision maker, he is actually a poor decision maker which results in him turning the ball over far too frequently of the course of his career.

Define poor. As far as I can see, he is on par in turnovers with Brees, Rivers, Big Ben, Flacco and Eli (think Eli's numbers are worse). All QBs that are franchise QBs and usable in FF.
Arod, Rwill and ofc Brady are the only 3 I looked at, that have a lower turnover number.

Not elite, but not poor either (at least from my simple sample).

Haven't bothered lining this up in excel or something or even checking all QBs (just the ones that made sense and old enough to have more than 1-2 seasons).

[jetsfan5757]

I hope he gets somewhere back to his old self. Traded Cousins and John Ross for Luck after week 1. Feeling like it was a bad move so far, but once I saw him healthy I figured it was worth the shot. QB has really been a sore spot in my lineup so far though this year (QB and TE).

Feeling a little better about Luck after today. Was about to offer Luck and Chris Thompson for Wentz or Watson in a league that overvalued RBs. I still have Wentz and Watson ahead of Luck personally, but I can use Thompson I my lineup so I'm happy I stood pat...

[Dynasty DeLorean]

And he’s doing it with a bunch of bums, ty is good but everyone else.... eww. Hes even making Ebron relevant

[Jigga94]

And he’s doing it with a bunch of bums, ty is good but everyone else.... eww. Hes even making Ebron relevant

So much of this...