The next collective bargaining agreement

[Valhalla]

Correct any errors in my assumptions, please

The next CBA is after the 2020 season, I believe. The cap continues to escalate. It's easy to argue that it should, provided the NFL continues to become more lucrative. There is becoming an issue of players not honoring their contracts, even if those contracts reset the market at the time they were signed. Because the market is being reset every year, the best players hold out to be on top, even after getting huge signing bonuses just 2+ years previous.
It goes both ways, and has run that way for a long time. Players don't honor their contracts, and teams don't honor them either. It's not just an agreement at the time of signing, but a continued agreement between player and team of the worth of their play has to be maintained, or the contract is not honored by one side or the other. NFL teams have been at an advantage for decades, but it's starting to even out, or at least become a huge hindrance to the team's finances, that the top players have so much power/sway to not honor contracts (even more than fair contracts) as the cap continues to rise.

All of this to lead up to this question to pose to you...
At a point...is it going to become somewhat of a financial wash (from the perspective of NFL teams) of guaranteed contracts vs non-guaranteed? Could an option for guaranteed, no backing out from either side contracts be considered at the next CBA?
This option for contract type would be of GREAT benefit to the players as it gives them security against injury or just plain falling off in statistical output. It could also be seen as a great benefit to GMs (in the instances of financially limiting their biggest cap eaters) because they don't have to deal with paying an Odell Beckham a new, reset the market type of contract, only to see him hold out three years into it due to the continued cap inflation. The NFL could use these types of contracts as some sort of option for particular "franchise" players, or they could make it uniform across all contracts. The occasional and inevitable "bad" contracts (from the GM's perspective) wouldn't be nearly so franchise crippling (provided the GM and his cap managers aren't dolts) because there would be plenty of franchise type players on favorable contracts, locked in.

[Cult of Dionysus]

On an unrelated issue, what are the chances that there's gonna be a strike?

[knotts4372]

On an unrelated issue, what are the chances that there's gonna be a strike?

imo, like 90% sure there will be

[Cult of Dionysus]

On an unrelated issue, what are the chances that there's gonna be a strike?

imo, like 90% sure there will be

Why? Any specific issues that you think the NFLPA is sensitive to?

[kamihamster]

Guaranteed contracts are good but the sport is violent and teams will not want to do long ones. Maybe they should do it so that a player's salary is a fixed percentage of the salary cap. If it goes down they lose money, but since it seems to be going up all the time they'd get a raise every year.

[Spinkso]

On an unrelated issue, what are the chances that there's gonna be a strike?

imo, like 90% sure there will be

I'd bet against it. The NFLPA talks tough. Way too many players don't manage their money. The owners do, and could survive a labor stoppage. More likely is a lockout, with the owners pushing back a lot harder than they did last time.

[hockeyBjj]

I think two things would greatly help to avoid the holdout issues the NFL has. #1, get rid of the franchise tag. It's unfair. An athlete agreed to play for X amount of money for Y years, you can't hold him for Z years because of it. Because of the franchise tag, and the threat of it, I support players who do end up holding out in many cases.

On the flip side, players need to honor their contracts. You agreed to play Y years for X amount of money. Sign for fewer years next time then with how the market is always shooting up. if you're going to be upset in the 4th and 5th years payouts. Kirk did good signing for 3 years knowing he's in line for another payday after 2020. Perhaps making attending camp/pre-season a mandatory part of contracts? So that they not only don't get paid for it, but they get very stiffly fined for breach of contract on a hold out?

I think the NHL actually did well with their arbitration process for players who have vastly out performed their contracts as a solution to hold outs. An athlete can invoke arbitration, and then the league assigns a non biased arbitrator to review what they're making, what other's who have their production and role are making, and if it's too far out of line they can assign a new salary that both sides are obligated to now follow. Instead of just no pay for a hold out, it's much more severe fines if the player refuses to play under the arbitrated contract. On the flip side, teams can invoke that arbitration against an underperforming player and lower their amount by up to 15%. This helps teams who get shafted by a free agent bust not simply have to choose cut loos and eat dead money or pay into a bad contract

[Ice]

The only real correction is I cannot remember one single instance whereby an organization has not honored a contract signed by both parties. Players or owners may not like the language of a signed contract but ownership does honor them.

1) I don't see a strike happening but an extended Lockout is a real possibility.
2) I do see possible escalators and contractions in contract language based on revenues in the future.
3) I actually see the use of the franchise tag increasing adding one of all kinds of Tags to bring stability for the teams and fans so they don't lose their best players.

The NFL has a serious image problem. The players foolishly let politics into the league and the result is lower viewership which means a drop in revenue will ultimately follow. The league didn't address the issue from the start so they have culpability as well.

The NFL has peaked due to the above factor and the constant negative press of concussion and injury. Ultimately a large swath of the populace will turn away as political correctness and a view of everyone should get a participation trophy mentality has become a society problem. The players position of wanting all the guarantees when their only real risk is injury compared to the massive risk of ownership funding the overall enterprise with business risk factors increasing at an increasing rate is not sustainable in the long term.

The days of Gladiator enjoyment could be coming to end much like the heavy weight title fights of yesteryear.

The decline will be slow but given wages in the country are growing at very slow rate and costs are increasing at a fast rate the elasticity of growing revenues is close to a breaking point.

All the major indicators from viewership, attendance, and a huge drop in NFL favorably last year is highly concerning. The players bargaining position is weak and if there is a LOCKOUT the players will lose big time. Obviously the fans, workers, and owners also lose but the current trajectory is not sustainable.