Play it safe when extending RBs?

[Portsmouth Spartans]

I'm in a salary/contract league and have to decide how long to extend Gurley-- we can only extend a player once. It costs an additional $5 per year and his currently salary is $5 (cap $200), so if I want to extend him 4 years, his new contract is $25 ($5 contract + 4 years @ $5/yr). The kicker is, if you cut a player before his extended contract expires, you face a 50% penalty of the REMAINING contract. So if I cut him after year 2, I face a $25 cap hit (2yr remaining @ 25/yr ($50 remaining) x 50%).

My concern is RB shelf-life. If I extend him through 2021, what're the chances I'm looking to cut him at age 27 (year 3) and face a $12-13 cap penalty. Worst case scenario is an ACL injury that costs him the majority of the next year forcing me to eat $25 the next year or cut him for a bigger penalty.

Do you err on the side of caution when keeping/extending RBs? My heart is saying 4 years but my brain says 3.

[Friction]

I dont play in Salary cap leagues, but what is the downside of only extending for 3 years, and then deciding after that if you want to extend him again? Besides the slight bump in money.

[Portsmouth Spartans]

I dont play in Salary cap leagues, but what is the downside of only extending for 3 years, and then deciding after that if you want to extend him again? Besides the slight bump in money.

I updated the post... we can only extend once

[Forza_Azzurri]

I think you have to do a case-by-case decision. I'd feel comfortable doing an extension for Gurley, I wouldn't do it for a Lev Bell. A guy like DJ would be a very tough call.

[Friction]

I would extend him at least 5 years then. In his case at least. Shelf life is a consideration, but injuries could happen to any rb, so I would not factor that too much.

[Jason3123]

Similar situation. I’m going full 5. The penalties aren’t strong enough to deter me. The odds of Gurley being completely irrelevant within the next 3-4 years are so slim. Injuries may happen but that’s part of the game and a guy like him will always have trade value if you’re too uncomfortable and want to get out.

While a lot of RB’s do have short shelf lifes elite backs often give you 6-8 years of fantasy production. Steven Jackson eroded after year 8. Shady is still going. Bell is still going after 5. Gurley will still be kicking through years 6-7 easily IMO, unless some unfortunate injuries really hit him. He’s only 3 years in though. Should certainly give you at least 3 more uber productive seasons.

[Shcritters]

I’d do 4 or 5. He’ll still young, and odds are that you’ll get to the end and want one more year rather than one fewer. And if needed, you could always trade him at the end if you think he’s going to drop off.

[Portsmouth Spartans]

thanks for the help everyone... you've convinced me to go longer

[millworkguy]

Go long,and look to trade him with 2 years remaining, cash out on a younger cheap player and picks and keep restocking your dts. A stud rb at 15% of your cap isn't a huge number