Cooks/Woods/Kupp stat predictions

[Space Cowboy]

How do we see this breaking down?

Cooks 82 /1,035
Woods 64 / 860
Kupp 73 / 890

[FantasyFreak]

Cooks 77/ 1085 8 TD's

Woods 62/ 789 4 TD's

Kupp 7 /868 7TD's

[Cowboysfan33]

Goff- 3,975 yards

Cooks- 72/1120 8 TD’s
Kupp- 60/800 6 TD’s
Woods- 52/750 4 TD’s
Gurley- 55/665 4 TD’s
Everett/Higbee- 420 5 TD’s
Random players- 220 1 TD

[ninotoreS]

Everyone predicting Cooks to lead the corps in targets and receptions should go check what DeSean Jackson did in McVay's offense. That's the role Cooks will be filling. It's not a featured target role, same as it wasn't for Sammy. About 100 targets is the logical projection for Cooks based on history, unless Goff throws less than 500 times again this year, in which case something around 80 targets is more likely.

Either Woods or Kupp will lead the WR corps in receptions this year.

It's possible none of them will crack 1k receiving yards if Goff's pass-attempts don't increase significantly and Gurley gets another 80-90 targets.

[clarion contrarion]

cooks 49 - 701 4tds
woods 87 -1076 8tds
kupp 53 - 658 4tds
reynolds 28 - 489 3tds
gurley 47 -439 4tds
tes 41 - 455 - 4tds
the rest 19 - 199 1td

[BigBawseRoss]

basing my numbers off last years attempts/completions/per player breakdown i have guessed the following:

Goff 320 completions 4100 yards 29TD (improved from 2017 approx 300/3800/28)

Woods 70 grabs, 950 yds, 7 TD (assuming he doesn't miss time this season i think he gets a slight bump from last years numbers)

Gurley 50 catches, 600 yds, 6 TD

Kupp 50 catches, 750 yards, 4 TD (slight dip due to less looks but still solid)

Cooks 50 catches, 700 yards, 6 TD (deep threat, wont get the looks needed to maintain what hes been thus far)

Everett/Higbee 50 catches, 700 yds, 4 TD (slight bump from 17, think everett gets more involved)

Everyone else 50 grabs, 400 yards, 2 TD

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

basing my numbers off last years attempts/completions/per player breakdown i have guessed the following:

Goff 320 completions 4100 yards 29TD (improved from 2017 approx 300/3800/28)

Woods 70 grabs, 950 yds, 7 TD (assuming he doesn't miss time this season i think he gets a slight bump from last years numbers)

Gurley 50 catches, 600 yds, 6 TD

Kupp 50 catches, 750 yards, 4 TD (slight dip due to less looks but still solid)

Cooks 50 catches, 700 yards, 6 TD (deep threat, wont get the looks needed to maintain what hes been thus far)

Everett/Higbee 50 catches, 700 yds, 4 TD (slight bump from 17, think everett gets more involved)

Everyone else 50 grabs, 400 yards, 2 TD

So you're predicting Cooks is used solely as a deep threat, but he's still averaging less ypr then Kupp? That would be very surprising.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Cooks: 60/1050/ 105 targets
Woods: 65/900/110
Kupp: 60/700/75
Gurley: 50/600/ 65
Everett+Higbee: 60/700/95
Reynolds/Cooper/Thomas/ Kelly, etc.: 25/400/45

[turkjetfan]

I wouldn't presume Cooks just slides into Sammy's role last year. Woods had one crazy season which in of itself I don't find sustainable. Reeks of 1 year wonder. The guy was career nothing until a random explosion. Don't get me wrong he will be involved but don't expect him to repeat last season.

Also, Cooks and Watkins are not comparable players. Cooks is a much better overall route runner and much more consistent of a player.

I view Cooks as a general buy low all things considered.

[ArrylT]

Cooks is going to be very interesting to watch this year. His YPC has increased every year in the league, and he's averaging 14 ypc for his career (that includes his 10 ypc shortened rookie season). He's never had less than 114 targets (in a full season) and never had less than 1000 yards (in a full season). He is also averaging 8 TDs a year.

It always seems as though Cooks gets a lot of doubt before a season - after his rookie year it was his injury (and owners not wanting to project his stats for a full season) - then the addition of Michael Thomas, the decline of Drew Bress - then it was going to NE (ie new team) and the crowded depth chart. Yet he always seems to maintain a high end WR2 finish.

Well assuming approx 100 targets, it is still possible, since based off his past stats & projected targets that would likely project to being something similar to

65 - 950 - 7 (slightly conservative 100 targets & 14.5 ypc)
70- 1050 - 8 (110 targets & 15 ypc)
75 - 1150 - 9 (more optimistic 120 targets & 15.5 ypc)

even the more conservative production which is very similar to Robby Anderson 2017 or Rishard Matthew 2018 as a mid WR2

Obviously it is going to depend a lot on exactly how many targets he gets, and how efficient he can be with them. Obviously 80 targets at 14 ypc is a lot different than 120 at 15.5 ypc. Not to mention if there will be any negative TD regression.

For me I do not concern myself much with Watkins vs. Cooks on a talent level, however Cooks did cost a mid-late 1st and has a full off-season to build chemistry & prepare, whereas Watkins had less than 1 month & cost what ended up being a mid-late 2nd (which using the Jimmy Johnson chart suggests the capital spent on Cooks was 2x as much). So when it costs a lot more, and you have a lot more time to develop rapport, it seems dismissive to assume it will be the same role/outcome, and/or just be a decoy/ occasional deep threat. Maybe that is all it will end up being - but it seems more likely at this point that while Cooks will be used as a deep threat, that wont be the extent of the role and he will be a major component of their offence (just like he was in NE).

In the end like I said it is going to be very interesting to see how his season plays out - and how much you value Cooks both short & long term could highly impact how much you'd price him at (to sell & to buy).

[IBall2]

I don't see how the Rams can justify paying a 1st round draft pick for a decoy deep threat like some people are suggesting. He is a very good route runner and I expect him to get a lot of looks underneath that he can turn into long gains with his 4.33 wheels.

His career average of 78/1068/7 may be a little high since that was with Brady/Brees but I think somewhere in the 65/1000/5 range with about 100 targets seems right on track for me.

[Phaded]

I do not think any of them exceed 1k yards - but if one of them does it, it would likely be Cooks.

I do think this offense disappoints people this year though.

[Bo Jackson]

Cooks 50 catches, 700 yards, 6 TD (deep threat, wont get the looks needed to maintain what hes been thus far)


So 43 yards/game for Cooks? Ouch

[FantasyFreak]

Everyone predicting Cooks to lead the corps in targets and receptions should go check what DeSean Jackson did in McVay's offense. That's the role Cooks will be filling. It's not a featured target role, same as it wasn't for Sammy. About 100 targets is the logical projection for Cooks based on history, unless Goff throws less than 500 times again this year, in which case something around 80 targets is more likely.

Either Woods or Kupp will lead the WR corps in receptions this year.

It's possible none of them will crack 1k receiving yards if Goff's pass-attempts don't increase significantly and Gurley gets another 80-90 targets.

Cooks is a better all round player that DJax. I understand the history but don't buy the narrative that coaches have rigid roles that said player fills. Offenses and coaches adapt, and the good ones construct plays to suit the players they have, not just carrying a set system from team to team. I'd be shocked if Cooks didn't receive 100 targets, he can do more than just run deep routes. Watkins is apples and oranges IMO. He came to the team in mid August, had no time in the system or with the QB before the season started. It's possible you are correct, but Cooks is a much more well rounded player at this point than D Jax or Watkins was, and if McVay is as good as everyone says he is, he'll find ways to get Cooks more than 80 targets a year for the best WR on his team, who they traded a first round pick for.

[clarion contrarion]

freak makes good points but I feel is a bit misguided when saying cooks is better than djax that dude was as explosive as anyone in the league for portions of his career and without hall of fame qbs tossing him the rock . Cooks best comp for me was always djax or hilton and he is just that a premium home run hitter /field stretcher and I think becomes more apparent not less with a lesser qb targeting him.
Djax has had 5 seasons with a > YPC and a 6th season tying cooks career high YPC . DJAX avg <1 reception a game and less than 1 yard a game fewer than cooks and cooks is far more efficient with brees & brady if that efficiency suffers he could rapidly end up a 1 trick pony.


Also will add , two of the best offensive systems in the league have let him go in back to back years equaling plenty of storm clouds on the horizon . He is a sell for me , especially if he makes a highlight play in the preseason or gets a fluff piece written by a beat writer or national guy.... if I owned any shares .