KC offense this year for fantasy

[joeya2001]

I feel like a team with studs and a rookie QB will have some growing pains, to many mouths to fees

What are your predictions for the following players production

Kelsey
Mahomes
Hunt
Hill
Watkins

currently

Kelsey is a TE 1
Hunt RB1
Hill WR1
Watkins WR 3/2
Mahomes QB2

think they will all produce that/

[hockeyBjj]

Kinda like NY Giants. WR/RB/TE1 but yet a streaming option at QB? If he puts up the numbers expected for all his weapons, he'd have to be a top 10 QB. So either raise up the QB expectations or lower yours on all the guys on his team if the QB can't produce that amount of yardage and TDs

I think Hunt will stay pretty consistent, but Kelce will be a mid rainge TE1 not up with Gronk and Ertz numbers this year, as well as Hill's targets going down. Sammy will continue to dissapoint but will do enough to rob the other guys of the volume they need

[jcc6fd]

What are your predictions for the following:

Kelsey is a TE 1
Hunt RB1
Hill WR1
Watkins WR 3/2
Mahomes QB2

think they will all produce that/

Kelce is locked into being a TE1, but maybe he falls from TE1 overall to the 3-5 range. That’s the farthest I’d bet on him dropping, and I could also see him stay at 1-2 overall.

Hunt is also likely to repeat as an RB1. Don’t see much argument for that changing, though I could see him slide a few spots, while remaining an RB1

I’d guess Hill is a WR2. More competition for targets just drops him a tad.

I’d cautiously assume Watkins will end as a high end WR3. He has upside for more but it likely comes at Hill’s expense.

Obviously this is Mahomes’ first year, but I’d bet against your prediction of him being a QB2 and say by season’s end he’s a QB1. Yes I’m drinking the Koolaid as a fantasy owner and a KC fan, but he’s got a ton of weapons, a great coach, downfield passing talent and mobility, this offense made Smith a QB1 last year and it got better, and to top it off the defense will be poor thus he’ll be throwing the ball often.

[FantasyFreak]

I think all numbers will be down. To think Mahomes will produce the way Smith did last year is just unrealistic. Alex Smith was a top 5 QB in most formats, so if Mahomes is a QB2 as suggested by the OP, regression across the board is to be expected.

[Gtdano_14]

I think all numbers will be down. To think Mahomes will produce the way Smith did last year is just unrealistic. Alex Smith was a top 5 QB in most formats, so if Mahomes is a QB2 as suggested by the OP, regression across the board is to be expected.

An absolutely plausible scenario based on how well they did last year and now having a sophomore (1st year) starter under center. I would easily bet on noticeable regression across the board over anything else. (similar numbers or improvement being the "anything else").

[dm1129]

I believe many owners are seriously underestimating the explosiveness and speed of Hill. With Alex Smith at QB, it was only possible to utilize Hill at a fraction of his potential. It is true that Smith was very efficient last year, but KC had no hesitation in trading him away this offseason for a reason. Mahomes will force opposing defenses to defend a much larger field. Mahomes will not be as efficient as Smith, but I also would not be surprised if he throws for more yards and touchdowns than Smith. Hunt will have more room to run, Kelce will have more room underneath and Hill will be able to go deep with a QB that can get him the ball. Undoubtedly there will be some growing pains, but in his one start last year without the starting receiving corps, Mahomes did not look like a rookie at all.....

[FantasyFreak]

I believe many owners are seriously underestimating the explosiveness and speed of Hill. With Alex Smith at QB, it was only possible to utilize Hill at a fraction of his potential. It is true that Smith was very efficient last year, but KC had no hesitation in trading him away this offseason for a reason. Mahomes will force opposing defenses to defend a much larger field. Mahomes will not be as efficient as Smith, but I also would not be surprised if he throws for more yards and touchdowns than Smith. Hunt will have more room to run, Kelce will have more room underneath and Hill will be able to go deep with a QB that can get him the ball. Undoubtedly there will be some growing pains, but in his one start last year without the starting receiving corps, Mahomes did not look like a rookie at all.....

I don't see a rookie QB throwing for more than 4100 yards and more than 26 TD's. It might happen if the Chiefs D is terrible, and they play against a lot of soft zones in the second half of games, but Mahomes, despite a rocket arm, is still inexperienced, and is still very raw to the NFL game. Mahomes played against Denver in a meaningless game, and I think people need to temper expectations based on that single performance. The ideas that everybody is going to have more room because of Mahomes is a fallacy IMO. He has a bigger arm, but that's all he has over Smith at this point. I would be shocked if there was no regression from this offense in year 1 of the Mahomes compared to last year. Let's also not forget once a few games have gone by and opposing teams get some film on Mahomes, they will look to exploit tendencies and weaknesses. We really don't know what to expect, but even elite QB prospects, which he is not, are not usually expected to produce what Smith did last year in their first year as a starter.

[dm1129]

I believe many owners are seriously underestimating the explosiveness and speed of Hill. With Alex Smith at QB, it was only possible to utilize Hill at a fraction of his potential. It is true that Smith was very efficient last year, but KC had no hesitation in trading him away this offseason for a reason. Mahomes will force opposing defenses to defend a much larger field. Mahomes will not be as efficient as Smith, but I also would not be surprised if he throws for more yards and touchdowns than Smith. Hunt will have more room to run, Kelce will have more room underneath and Hill will be able to go deep with a QB that can get him the ball. Undoubtedly there will be some growing pains, but in his one start last year without the starting receiving corps, Mahomes did not look like a rookie at all.....

I don't see a rookie QB throwing for more than 4100 yards and more than 26 TD's. It might happen if the Chiefs D is terrible, and they play against a lot of soft zones in the second half of games, but Mahomes, despite a rocket arm, is still inexperienced, and is still very raw to the NFL game. Mahomes played against Denver in a meaningless game, and I think people need to temper expectations based on that single performance. The ideas that everybody is going to have more room because of Mahomes is a fallacy IMO. He has a bigger arm, but that's all he has over Smith at this point. I would be shocked if there was no regression from this offense in year 1 of the Mahomes compared to last year. Let's also not forget once a few games have gone by and opposing teams get some film on Mahomes, they will look to exploit tendencies and weaknesses. We really don't know what to expect, but even elite QB prospects, which he is not, are not usually expected to produce what Smith did last year in their first year as a starter.

Based on what? You are exactly the type of owner I am talking about. Hill can get behind opposing defenses at will. With Mahomes' arm, they will have to respect that or simply get beat up by Hill. The offense KC ran with Smith is not going to be the offense KC runs with Mahomes. Reid was painfully aware of the limitations of Smith and the offense reflected that(hence Smith was traded). Additionally there will be the speed of Watkins and Conley, it will force defenses to defend a bigger field. Regarding one 'meaningless' game....it was the first start of Mahomes career and he simply did not look lost at any point while having the 2-3rd stringers to throw to. To characterize Mahomes as a 'rookie' next year really is not accurate. By all accounts, Mahomes has been a film junkie since he arrived at KC....Lastly, KC traded up in the draft to get Mahomes, it was not some random occurrence. Reid has plans for Mahomes.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I believe KC will be a top-5 offense this year. Mahomes will make mistakes, but his rocket arm and running ability is going to lead to quite a few highlight reel plays, and KC's poor defense / secondary is going to lead to a lot of pass-heavy game scripts for the offense. I'm investing in KC players for fantasy across the board: Mahomes low to mid QB1, Hunt high RB2 / low RB1, Hill high WR2 / low WR1, Watkins high WR3 / low WR2, Kelce mid TE1.

[Z$$$]

Smith threw over 500 pass attempts last year. I can see them not giving Mahomes that many attempts and relying on Hunt more, but I can also see them as letting their new toy air it out. Around 200 of those attempts went to other receivers than Kelce, Hill and Hunt so Watkins will have his share.

[kamihamster]

I think this offense will look a lot like the Jacksonville offense in terms of play calling. Run first, with deep shots sprinkled in. Reid is a better offensive mind so maybe things are disguised better, or the dump off pass will serve as a form of the run game but overall I don't think they are going to put too much on Mahomes' plate.

[Rosenbluu]

I truly don’t know what to expect, this offense can be a power house for fantasy. Maybe everyone’s value might take a small dip but you have no worries if you have any of them long term (except Watkins, I hope he finally puts it together)

There will definitely be some growing pains but that might actually help them sling it and start airing it out

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

I believe many owners are seriously underestimating the explosiveness and speed of Hill. With Alex Smith at QB, it was only possible to utilize Hill at a fraction of his potential. It is true that Smith was very efficient last year, but KC had no hesitation in trading him away this offseason for a reason. Mahomes will force opposing defenses to defend a much larger field. Mahomes will not be as efficient as Smith, but I also would not be surprised if he throws for more yards and touchdowns than Smith. Hunt will have more room to run, Kelce will have more room underneath and Hill will be able to go deep with a QB that can get him the ball. Undoubtedly there will be some growing pains, but in his one start last year without the starting receiving corps, Mahomes did not look like a rookie at all.....

I don't see a rookie QB throwing for more than 4100 yards and more than 26 TD's.

lucky mahomes isn't a rookie qb then.

.

[smallxl]

I believe KC will be a top-5 offense this year. Mahomes will make mistakes, but his rocket arm and running ability is going to lead to quite a few highlight reel plays, and KC's poor defense / secondary is going to lead to a lot of pass-heavy game scripts for the offense. I'm investing in KC players for fantasy across the board: Mahomes low to mid QB1, Hunt high RB2 / low RB1, Hill high WR2 / low WR1, Watkins high WR3 / low WR2, Kelce mid TE1.

Agree with this. I actually love Kelce, hill and Watkins

Mistakes yes but an explosive offense no matter what.

[FantasyFreak]

I believe many owners are seriously underestimating the explosiveness and speed of Hill. With Alex Smith at QB, it was only possible to utilize Hill at a fraction of his potential. It is true that Smith was very efficient last year, but KC had no hesitation in trading him away this offseason for a reason. Mahomes will force opposing defenses to defend a much larger field. Mahomes will not be as efficient as Smith, but I also would not be surprised if he throws for more yards and touchdowns than Smith. Hunt will have more room to run, Kelce will have more room underneath and Hill will be able to go deep with a QB that can get him the ball. Undoubtedly there will be some growing pains, but in his one start last year without the starting receiving corps, Mahomes did not look like a rookie at all.....

I don't see a rookie QB throwing for more than 4100 yards and more than 26 TD's. It might happen if the Chiefs D is terrible, and they play against a lot of soft zones in the second half of games, but Mahomes, despite a rocket arm, is still inexperienced, and is still very raw to the NFL game. Mahomes played against Denver in a meaningless game, and I think people need to temper expectations based on that single performance. The ideas that everybody is going to have more room because of Mahomes is a fallacy IMO. He has a bigger arm, but that's all he has over Smith at this point. I would be shocked if there was no regression from this offense in year 1 of the Mahomes compared to last year. Let's also not forget once a few games have gone by and opposing teams get some film on Mahomes, they will look to exploit tendencies and weaknesses. We really don't know what to expect, but even elite QB prospects, which he is not, are not usually expected to produce what Smith did last year in their first year as a starter.

Based on what? You are exactly the type of owner I am talking about. Hill can get behind opposing defenses at will. With Mahomes' arm, they will have to respect that or simply get beat up by Hill. The offense KC ran with Smith is not going to be the offense KC runs with Mahomes. Reid was painfully aware of the limitations of Smith and the offense reflected that(hence Smith was traded). Additionally there will be the speed of Watkins and Conley, it will force defenses to defend a bigger field. Regarding one 'meaningless' game....it was the first start of Mahomes career and he simply did not look lost at any point while having the 2-3rd stringers to throw to. To characterize Mahomes as a 'rookie' next year really is not accurate. By all accounts, Mahomes has been a film junkie since he arrived at KC....Lastly, KC traded up in the draft to get Mahomes, it was not some random occurrence. Reid has plans for Mahomes.

Good for him. I'm not underestimating anything about Hill, BTW, I think you are weaving a self serving narrative because you own some of these players, personally. I'm trying to be objective. As good as Hill is, his QB play will most likely take a step back overall, despite the QB having a bigger arm. Besides, Smith was the top rated deep ball passer in the league last year, despite his "weak arm", he was extremely accurate with it down the field.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... rs-in-2017

Mahomes is going to de better than this? The narrative you are writing doesn't make it a reality. Simply because he has a bigger arm doesn't mean he can throw it deep with better accuracy. I think you underestimate teams abilities to create defensive schemes against a very raw QB that has not seen a lot of NFL field time. Glad he's a film junkie, he's still entering his first year as a starter, and chances are he's going to have ups and downs. The Bills traded up for Allen, doesn't mean it will work out. The probability of Mahomes reaching the numbers Smith did last year is low, and as a result, most of the offense will see a regression in their numbers as a correlation. Mahomes isn't the first big arm to enter the NFL.