Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby skip » Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:36 am

To an extent, yes, however I think it isn't do much about over-valuing youth but UNDER-valuing quality players (by over-valuing potential studs).

It seems that the goal of every owner on here is to accumulate studs - usually at the expense of production - so it creates an imbalance where it becomes commonplace to throw away players like Jordan Howard because he isn't classified as a "stud" for a top 3-5 rookie pick with the potential of becoming one. There ends up being a dismissive nature to a large number of players because they don't have the allure or name value tied to them. Too often it ends being an over-valuation of potential rather than proven. It's one thing to go after someone like a Zeke or Bell and something altogether different targeting a Guice or Penny thinking they will reach the same tier.
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby Johnny Canuck » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:16 am

I would say yes, and no.

I find most dynasty owners think they're smarter than they are (myself included for some hot takes lol). Usually everyone has a rookie they love, or a sleeper they target, and want to think they're the smartest person in the room...and maybe they are in their respective leagues, who am I to say they aren't, I don't know (I mean, hell, they're posting in a dynasty forum in the doldrums of the offseason so at least they're putting in time). The problem is, hitting on a rookie is tougher than most are willing to admit. I won't be able to word it quite as nicely as JJ Zachariason so I'll just leave his article here about overvaluing rookie picks.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/190 ... raft-picks

The other side of it is, most (not all, but most) posters around there parts don't want to be left holding the bag with older players. As a result, you see quality older players go in trades for much cheaper than their production warrants. The Tom Brady, Frank Gore, Drew Brees, Larry Fitz, types will get sold off too cheap, and too early. A top player hits 29 yrs old and boom, time to sell. But the benefit to an older type like Larry Fitz/Brandon Marshall/Peyton Manning, is you can usually ride these guys till the wheels fall off, and you'll normally get at least flex worthy starter production till then. When the cliff has come it's usually not hard to see, making it easy to move on and cut them from your roster (opening up a space for another player). Compare this to the young 2nd round guy (maybe you got the pick in a deal for Fitz for examples sake) you've been holding and waiting for starter production to come, but it hasn't happened, and might never happen. Maybe the three year production you would of got out of Fitz is better than any three yrs of that 2nd round picks career. But you keep on holding them, hoping for the best, clogging up roster space, when you could of been more active on the ww (this last point is likely only be true for shorter bench dynasty - 21 roster spots etc). But that pick COULD hit, which brings me to the next section.

Like others have said A) it's a dynasty forum so it comes with the territory, overvaluing youth is bound to occur. B) Hitting on a rookie can completely reshape your squad so it's a very viable strategy. While I agree with the article above that hitting on a rookie is less likely than most think, the upside is undeniable, so I wouldn't call the youth overvalued, as much as I'd call it, risky and volatile value.

I've seen both work in my leagues, the guy that won this yr hit on a ton of rookie RBs. In previous years, I've seen the NFLs nursing home squad take down the ship. Usually I find a balance of overvalued youth (which I hope will hit), supplementing older undervalued producing veterans is the best methodology, but that's just me.

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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby Ice » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:43 am

In reality this forum is not unique in that the masses have been stuck on the ease of ADP and others to value Picks/Players or Older experienced vs younger players.

The best teams historically have a blend of studs vs youth with solid flex plays and a stud QB.

Owners naturally overvalue their own assets and undervalue assets they are trying to acquire. Human nature isn't so difficult to understand.

The very best owners in fantasy will often send offers that appear to be a sizeable overpay to get the player they desire to make a championship run. These owner play a different game as most have a keen understanding of defensive schemes and coaching tendencies.
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby Kcarr » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:49 am

I would say in terms of youth, sometimes. 1st round picks though i would say no. 2nd round and later picks I would say some do but overall no.

The 1st point of proof here is that most responding to this thread, all of them would be considered part of this forum, and all said those things are overvalued meaning their values of them are lower than consensus which then lowers the consensus value. I don't really think there is an overall community opinion of the value of those tg8hts. Some value them too high and some too low. Just think, for every post about the "insanely high price" of barkley there seems to be another mentioning how insane that price is.

Now as to the actual question, I think it really depends and I generally advocate a balanced approach in this situation. Going back to a discussiob last year a majir portion had to do with golden gate vs I think 1.5, maybe 1.6. Now people who dislike the high value of youth dominated the conversation with talk about how the odds are way better that over the next 3 years Tate scores more points while the youth guys tended to look beyond those 3 years which I think is wrong. Where I go is yes, Tate is the more likely production option. That said, how many guys that age then break out and become franchise changing players. On the other hand how many rookies drafted in the 1.05 to 1.08 range have, obj, Michael thomas, hunt, kamara, etc. Therefore Ivan see both sides and think it really needs to be handled on a case by case team by team basis. I think the "value" is even though because one side has solid, dependable production while the other has that admittedly small chance but still a chance at a player that can really make a difference.
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:57 am

I value top 6 rookie picks quite highly; after that, I'm very willing to trade a pick for veterans.

The OP cites Chris Thompson & Kenny Stills though. I'd take any second round pick over them. I think players of that level are easy to replace in free agency or as throw-ins on a trade, so I'll take the long shot stab at a rookie. Obviously this depends on roster sizes and league specifics.
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby Tsunami » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:40 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote: Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:57 am I value top 6 rookie picks quite highly; after that, I'm very willing to trade a pick for veterans.

The OP cites Chris Thompson & Kenny Stills though. I'd take any second round pick over them. I think players of that level are easy to replace in free agency or as throw-ins on a trade, so I'll take the long shot stab at a rookie. Obviously this depends on roster sizes and league specifics.
This is nuts. Thompson was a RB1 in PPR leagues for like 12 weeks. And Stills is in line for a lot more play time, they gave him a good contract and let Landry go, so he should improve on his 800/7 numbers.

The dynasty community undervalues aging vets and overvalues all rookies. Barkley is worth more than Kamara, Hunt, Fournette, Cook? How could he possibly have a debut better than what those guys did? He's worth more than top 5 RBs like David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Le'Veon Bell? Good luck with that.
It's inconsistent though. Larry Fitzgerald has been worth very little since 2014 despite putting up numbers, but Jordy Nelson held his early-round value through injuries and all. Some rookies hold their value for years with little to show, like Christine Michael or Donte Moncrief, and some are virtually worthless in no time like Curtis Samuel and Leonte Carroo.

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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby DLF3000 » Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:56 am

Tsunami wrote: Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:40 pm It's inconsistent though. Larry Fitzgerald has been worth very little since 2014 despite putting up numbers, but Jordy Nelson held his early-round value through injuries and all. Some rookies hold their value for years with little to show, like Christine Michael or Donte Moncrief, and some are virtually worthless in no time like Curtis Samuel and Leonte Carroo.
Yeah, the Larry thing bothers me, as I had him for a decade since our initial draft. Spent several years trying to trade him recently, but the value back was always terrible vs. his production. But I was rebuilding so I traded him anyway.

That said, guys like Larry are outliers. There are so few super-old WRs that consistently put up numbers like Larry, yet very few will give you what he's worth since it's dynasty and youth rules - and in his case, retirement is always on the doorstep.

I've learned (the hard way) to just hold these guys - again, there's so few of them - through a rebuild in case they're still producing by the time you're back to being competitive, rather than give them away for cheap like a few super-low hit rate picks.
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby Hottoddies » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:30 pm

Every player in the NFL was a rookie at one time. Usually this is the cheapest time to acquire them. Every player has a finite career and the difference between redaft and dynasty is time. Normally older players will lose trade value well before they lose production value. If a player's career ends on your roster, that asset is forever lost, whereas youth offers the promise of more years of production.

Future draft picks never get injured, suspended, or lose value. They are like money in the bank. They can always be used as capital in trade deals. A draft pick offers choice; not everybody will like certain players but everyone values their own personal choice. And come draft day when that draft pick has it's greatest value, if you don't like any of your options, you can trade it for one of those established vets.
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby Pullo Vision » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:14 am

Hottoddies wrote: Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:30 pm Every player in the NFL was a rookie at one time. Usually this is the cheapest time to acquire them. Every player has a finite career and the difference between redaft and dynasty is time. Normally older players will lose trade value well before they lose production value. If a player's career ends on your roster, that asset is forever lost, whereas youth offers the promise of more years of production.

Future draft picks never get injured, suspended, or lose value. They are like money in the bank. They can always be used as capital in trade deals. A draft pick offers choice; not everybody will like certain players but everyone values their own personal choice. And come draft day when that draft pick has it's greatest value, if you don't like any of your options, you can trade it for one of those established vets.
This is almost a counter narrative, but I think that the cheapest time to get a rookie is generally right AFTER their rookie season. While there are occasional Amari Coopers, Kamaras and Hunts, there are waay more Melvin Gordons, Nelson Agholors and John Rosss.
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby Pullo Vision » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:41 am

Jaysof wrote: Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:36 pm Hello, everyone. This is my first year playing dynasty, but I've played redraft for nine years now. Obviously dynasty is a completely different landscape from redraft, but one of the first things I noticed when I joined this forum was the valuation of rookie picks versus proven players.

Generally, I'm not talking about high 1st round picks. The Barkleys, Guices, and Pennys of the world deserve their price. However, according to this Rotoworld articlehttp://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/7 ... -hit-rates, first round picks have a hit rate (with a generous definition of hit, as all that is necessary for a pick to be counted as a success is one top 24 season for a RB/WR or a top 12 season for QB/TE) of under 50%. If you remove one-hit wonders, the figure drops to 30%. Second round picks have a success rate of around 31%. The figure drops to 7% for players drafted in the third round or later. Then there's this numberFire article https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/190 ... aft-picks# by JJ Zachariason about how dynasty owners generally overvalue rookie picks.

This is a legitimate question, I'm not trying to push any narrative. This is my first time playing dynasty so I'm legitimately curious if anyone else here agrees that rookie picks are generally overvalued on this format. Specifically, I'm talking about average to below average flex players like Chris Thompson, Kenny Stills, etc. versus 2nd round picks, because I see a lot of people saying they'd take any second or even a third over those players (I chose those two specifically because those were two threads I saw recently). Is someone like Nyheim Hines or Kalen Ballage, who might have more upside (or perhaps we just value unproven potential over proven mediocrity?) really more valuable than veterans who have shown they can be startable fantasy options?
I'm unclear about the question here. Are you asking if the dynasty community in general mis-values picks or those specifically at DLF itself?

When trying to determine the value of a player vs a pick, the first thing I do is assess the league settings and the waiver. Smaller leagues and shorter rosters will leave productive players on waivers. In a league of 10 teams with rosters that are 21 deep (that also require a kicker and defense), guys like Kenny Stills and Larry Fitzgerald won't have much value because you can get production from other waiver adds. In a 12x35 league, however, there will be no one you can comfortably grab off waivers and plug in to your starting lineup; producing guys like Stills and Fitz would see their value spike up.

So, in a 10x21 league, I'd prefer a 2nd over Stills, but the player in a 12x35. That's without assessing league scoring or the peculiarities of that league. I'm in one where WRs have enhanced value but RBs do in another.

If the question is about DLF specifically, as opposed to other forums, I think that could be driven by certain factors. People are driven to dynasty, and away from redraft, because of the idea you can build a roster and keep it together for years at a time. Imagine being able to roster a HOFer for 10 or 15 years?

But, it rarely works out that way. Player values and production ebb and flow, due not just to age, but scheme and personnel changes, as well as injuries. Larry Fitzgerald is a prime example, but Amari Cooper could fit as well, especially if his value and production rebound after this season.

Another example of changing player value is Steve Smith. Years ago, in my first large league (12x40), I took over a team. I decided to trade Smitty because he was "old". I was ecstatic to get a 1st and 2nd for him. I couldn't imagine getting that haul in my other league, a 12x21. I took Gartrell Johnson because Tomlinson was at the end of his career and Johnson would be his replacement.

That trade and draft selection were horrible decisions, ones I hopefully won't repeat. I thought I had sold high on Smith and gotten out of a dumpster fire offense, but he would have been useful to me far longer than Johnson was. If I had been more patient, and realized production in that league had more value than my 12x21 league, I would have been able to take advantage of Smith getting passes from Cam. Smith ended up putting together some very productive seasons, setting or nearing several career marks of receptions, yards and TDs. I ended up selling in a value valley.

Navigating this constantly changing landscape of value and production takes skill and experience, and this forum is the largest concentration of people that I know of that has that experience. I see dynasty posts in forums not committed to dynasty, but few will receive the flood of responses you'll get here. This concentration of knowledge, and the responses and discussion it generates, brings in relative novices who don't get the information and attention they crave elsewhere.

So, while other forums may have a handful of veterans of dynasty, few will have the mass of novices and veterans that are here. A dynasty question at another forum frequented by a handful of dynasty vets (since the novices have drifted away) may yield completely different answers from here because this forum has a more even spread of newer and seasoned players. The fact this forum has a spread of experience makes it a more representative sample of valuations within the larger dynasty community.

So, if the question is, Does this forum value picks higher than other forums?, I'd say yes. But, I'd also say pick valuations here are more representative of the dynasty community as a whole, since there's a better spread of experience here than elsewhere.

If the question is, Do people on this forum OVERVALUE picks, when considering historical trends of hit and bust rates? I could see that being the case, since this forum will have a larger percentage of active members that are newer to the format.
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:44 am

One thing that happens way too often (especially with pass catchers) is that we overvalue youth when it comes to production.

I see lots of posters referencing their "stacked WR corps", and it's headlined by JuJu, Corey Davis, Watkins, Sutton, Calvin Ridley, Fuller, Chris Godwin, etc. Sure, there are a lot of sexy young names in there, but how much weekly production will you actually be able to count on from a group like that? Do you have a nice squad as far as ADP? Sure! But I can paint an easy narrative for each of those young guns to falter and not be consistently startable this year.
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
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TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
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TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
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TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
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BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
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KITTLE, Goedert
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MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
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TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
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TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
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Re: Does this forum overvalue youth (or, more specifically, rookie picks)?

Postby BigBawseRoss » Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:45 am

i find newer players over value rookies/picks and older/more experienced players overvalue vets or undervalue picks.


this may relate to the forum in the sense that a ton of people come here in this time after nfl draft leading up to the start of season and post lots of advice or questions but they are a lot of newer or more casual dynasty players, and those are the types to really love youth and picks. The guys who post here in the totally dead months and have few questions but more answers are the types you will see valuing proven commodities and veteran players over rookies/picks/future picks.

Theres no right or wrong answer really cuz it all is based on who gets picked where and how well the pick was used. for example i traded 3 2nds last year for 1.04, took mixon (passed on hunt) and the 2nds i gave up became Kamara, Juju, and Engram haha.

but on the flip side i sold all my picks this year and got Ertz, D Henry, DT, and Pryor. I won my league so those picks are all 12th of each round. i think anyone would sell a 1.12 and 3.12 for henry and dt, as anyone would also sell a 2.12 for Ertz.

so theres wins and losses with each strategy for sure. I side with selling picks for proven players myself, as you eluded to originally theres more misses than there are hits. but also people give up on guys right as they are about to blow up and thats the time to spend a rookie pick (see doctson and parker for 2nds)
team 1
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1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Dak , Herbert
Achane, Breece Hall, KW3Kyren,Ford, Miller, Spiller, z evans, singletary
J Jefferson, Diggs, DK, D Smith Puka, C Watson, E Moore
Njoku , HH, Engram

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1,2,3,3,5

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