At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

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kris_kapsner
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At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:59 am

At each of their current values, I'd rather own Gio Bernard than Mixon. Not that I don't like Mixon. I like him a lot. But, I don't think Bernard is a push over and people forget that he was an early 2nd round pick who performed better than Mixon did last year on a per carry basis.

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(RotoWire) Bengals offensive coordinator Bill Lazor is excited to use Bernard and Joe Mixon in the backfield, the team's official website reports.
Analysis: Mixon is headed for the lead role and a majority of carries, but Bernard shouldn't have much competition for backup work with fourth-round rookie Mark Walton replacing Jeremy Hill (Patriots). The plan could change if Mixon gets off to a slow start, considering he averaged just 3.5 yards on 178 carries last season, while Bernard averaged 4.4 on 105 totes. Both backs were effective as pass catchers, with Mixon hauling in 30 of 34 targets for 287 yards and Bernard bringing in 43 of 60 for 389 yards and two touchdowns. The Bengals improved their woeful offensive line in the offseason, trading for LT Cordy Glenn and drafting C Billy Price at No. 21 overall. There's also reason to believe a healthy John Ross could help the running game, as opposing safeties will need to be cautious if Ross and A.J. Green are both on the field. Bernard seems to be enjoying a healthy offseason, after spending last spring/summer rehabbing from a torn ACL.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Brady, Stafford
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, G. Bernard, Scarbrough
WR: Fitz, Dez, AJ Green, Gordon, Watkins, D. Thomas, Fuller, Crabtree, Stills
TE: Kelce, Seals-Jones
K: Fairbairn
D: Baltimore

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lic217
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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby lic217 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:09 am

I like Bernard at his current price. Mixon is too expensive for me. I prefer Mixon to Bernard, but Bernard is on sale.
12 team ppr, .2 ppc
1Qb:Carr, Trubisky
1-3Rb:Washington, McGuire,Grant,M.Davis
2-5Wr:Allison,Bourne,Doctson,Enunwa,Conley,Hollins,Zay,Malone,Miller, JMathews,Lattimore,Lasley,Marquez,Stewart,T.Williams, Ross, Wilson,Watkins
1-2TE:J.Smith,Andrews,Henry
2019:1,1,2,2,2,2,2,3,4,
2020:1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,4

10 team ppr, 1.5 te, long bonus,.2ppc
1-2 qb: Carr,Luck,Ryan,Tannehill,Kizer
2-4 rb Zeke,Miller,Ajayi,Lynch,Ware,Edmonds
2-5 wr Green,Julio,DT,Hilton,Nelson,Maclin,Lasley,Lee,Meridith,JReynolds,Chester Rodgers,Chark
1-2 te Gronk,Mcdonald,Eifert,ASJ
2019:3,3,4,4,5

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby ericanadian » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:35 pm

Bernard & Mixon were pretty close to equal in their YPC between the tackles. Bernard was just better at getting to the edge than Mixon, but is that really something we expect Mixon to be bad at?

I agree that Bernard is a pretty good back in his own right, but he hasn't held up well to high usage. He also ends up on the field a lot to pass block which increases his injury risk while producing nothing for you. In PPR, I could see some love for Gio, but in standard, he's bordering on roster clogger status.
The Jolly Rodgers - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Carr
RB - Gordon, Martin, Montgomery, Penny, Foreman, Booker, Guice, Darkwa
WR - Julio, Landry, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel
TE - Kelce, Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, Foster, J. Smith
DL - Ansah, Suh, Hunter
DB - D. James, Baker, Joyner
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:37 pm

Tend to agree with ericanadian here. Gio is absolutely useful in a ppr format, and since he's considerably cheaper I could see him being the choice due to his lower price tag in that format. But in standard, it's hard to justify rostering Gio at all. Similar players are Gio, Riddick, Cohen, Duke, Thompson, etc...

Does that mean you should pay the going rate for Mixon in standard? If I hadn't drafted him last year, I probably wouldn't be looking to buy unless the Mixon owner in my league had soured on him and I could get a decent price. He probably costs at least a top-5 rookie pick if not more, and if you've got one of those might as well draft best RB available in a strong 2018 class instead of paying for Mixon.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, (RB/WR/TE), K, D

QB: R. Wilson, B. Bortles, L. Jackson
RB: J. Mixon, L. Miller, N. Chubb, I. Crowell,
WR:M. Thomas (N.O.), T.Y. Hilton, A. Jeffery, C. Godwin, D. Pettis, J. Reynolds, D. Cain
TE: T. Kelce, E. Engram, D. Njoku

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:17 pm

People still play in standard leagues?
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015 Champion
2017 Champion

QB: Big Ben, Rivers
RB: Gurley, Kamara, Lewis, Gore
WR: Julio, Keenan, Cooks, Sanders, A.Miller
TE: Kelce, Kittle

2019: 2, 2, 2,

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby AussieMate » Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:31 pm

This one is hard, the easy answer is Bernard because of his output last year and the massive price difference. My problem is I believe Mixon will be the bellcow going forward with Bernard as a change of pace/backup, what I'm trying to say is in my eyes Bernards is only valuable to me if I already have Mixon as my starter, so if I had to choose one even at their price it would be Mixon.
Now if you believe Bernard has a chance to take over that backfield then obviously your answer would be Bernard regardless off price.
Basically this would come down to a Mixon vs Bernard debate with price not really being a factor.

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby knotts4372 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:57 pm

bernard very very easily. always been a huge fan of his
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http://football29.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... =07&F=0016


IRONCLAD 16 teams 40 man rosters http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/leagues/133985/teams/
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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:00 pm

Oh boy, another Mixon thread! At value, Bernard.
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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby Bot101 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:26 pm

What is the point of this thread?
QB/WR WR WR/ RB RB/ TE/ FLX FLX/ DEF
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota

WR: Odell Beckham Jr, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, Antonio Callaway, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Zay Jones, Deon Cain (IR)

RB: Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Tevin Coleman, Austin Ekeler, Ito Smith, Chase Edmonds, Elijah McGuire, Malcolm Brown, Josh Adams

TE: Trey Burton, Jonnu Smith, Gerald Everett

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby Weeman » Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:05 pm

Mixon.

But generally I don’t compare apples to oranges. If I’m in a dynasty draft, I’m comparing Gio’s value to other ppr backs. Mixons adp is teetering around low end rb1 to high rb2, I don’t see that as an unreasonable projection.

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby Rosenbluu » Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:20 am

I’m not buying Mixon at his current price with the production so far but I am a fan.

Gio is great value right now in almost every league I’m in
Degenerates 16 Team PPR Superflex TE Premium Devy League
QB/RB/3WR/TE/4 Flex
QB: Watson/Carr/Cardale/JT Barret(OSU)
RB: Howard/Coleman/Penny/Cohen/Sproles
WR: Hill/Diggs/Kupp/MWilliams/Ridley/Enunwa/Kelvin/Paul Richardson/Tavon/Floyd/
TE: Engram/Green/Amaro/Escobar

Hogwarts of the Ring 12 Team Superflex .5 PPR TE Premium
QB/2RB/3WR/TE/2 Flex
QB: Watson/Matty
RB: MG3/Drake/Murray/Gore/Gio/Eckler
WR:Evans/Cooks/TY/Baldwin/Kupp/White/Caroo/Garcon
TE: Rudolph/Njoku/Butt/Kroft

Gridiron Greats 12 Team 2QB PPR
2QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3Flex/1(RB/TE)Flex
QB: JimmyG/Mahomes/Brady
RB: Sony/RoJo/Tevin/Lynch/Powell/Gio
WR: Hill/Cooks/Woods/Dez/Hurns/DaeSean/Boyd/Twill
TE: ASJ/Reed/Andrews

Picks: 1.07, 1.10, 4.07

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:39 am

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:17 pm
People still play in standard leagues?
Yes.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, (RB/WR/TE), K, D

QB: R. Wilson, B. Bortles, L. Jackson
RB: J. Mixon, L. Miller, N. Chubb, I. Crowell,
WR:M. Thomas (N.O.), T.Y. Hilton, A. Jeffery, C. Godwin, D. Pettis, J. Reynolds, D. Cain
TE: T. Kelce, E. Engram, D. Njoku

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby Goddard » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:40 am

This is almost impossible to answer without knowing what Gio's price/value actually is. I'm assuming everyone saying "Gio at his price" are assuming that they can get him for practically nothing. If that were the case, then sure, give me Gio for free, and then I'd still go after Mixon since he's going to be the starter. However, I'm going to make more assumptions and say that Gio owners will want at least an early 2nd if they're selling, especially since there seem to be so many people high on him. At an early 2nd price, I'm passing and would much rather pay an early 1st for Mixon.

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby kris_kapsner » Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:09 pm

Goddard wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:40 am
This is almost impossible to answer without knowing what Gio's price/value actually is. I'm assuming everyone saying "Gio at his price" are assuming that they can get him for practically nothing. If that were the case, then sure, give me Gio for free, and then I'd still go after Mixon since he's going to be the starter. However, I'm going to make more assumptions and say that Gio owners will want at least an early 2nd if they're selling, especially since there seem to be so many people high on him. At an early 2nd price, I'm passing and would much rather pay an early 1st for Mixon.
At current ADP, Mixon is RB 15 and Gio is RB 54.

Yes, even Doug Martin is slightly ahead of Gio right now in ADP. :shock:
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Brady, Stafford
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, G. Bernard, Scarbrough
WR: Fitz, Dez, AJ Green, Gordon, Watkins, D. Thomas, Fuller, Crabtree, Stills
TE: Kelce, Seals-Jones
K: Fairbairn
D: Baltimore

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Re: At Value: Mixon or Bernard?

Postby Goddard » Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:58 pm

kris_kapsner wrote:
Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:09 pm
Goddard wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:40 am
This is almost impossible to answer without knowing what Gio's price/value actually is. I'm assuming everyone saying "Gio at his price" are assuming that they can get him for practically nothing. If that were the case, then sure, give me Gio for free, and then I'd still go after Mixon since he's going to be the starter. However, I'm going to make more assumptions and say that Gio owners will want at least an early 2nd if they're selling, especially since there seem to be so many people high on him. At an early 2nd price, I'm passing and would much rather pay an early 1st for Mixon.
At current ADP, Mixon is RB 15 and Gio is RB 54.

Yes, even Doug Martin is slightly ahead of Gio right now in ADP. :shock:
ADP and trade value are very different though. I'm just curious if we asked Gio owners what it would take to move him, I doubt they'd move him for Dmart.


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