If your rookie draft is in 6 weeks, how much will the draft tiers change?

[johnnymozart]

If your rookie draft were far away like mine (on Aug. 11) how much do you think the pick values of this year's draft change? Like right now, I feel there is a drop from the non Saquon barkley tier 1 at picks 9, again at 12, and then again at pick 16. If you owned many quality picks-- is there value in trying to get higher up in the draft? Or should you remain hopeful that your picks will continue to hold value. Like if Chubb were to get injured significantly week 1 of preseason, it would then drop to a tier drop after pick 8.

I currently own picks 4, 6, 7, 9, 12. Is there any point in using additional capital in order to acquire pick 5 or should I stay put because the late June ADPs call for drops at certain player points. Just interested to hear general thoughts on the matter. People also get more hyped about first round picks closer to the draft, for instance, so acquiring higher picks may not be as easy if I were to wait 4 weeks.

[lukkynumber13]

I don't think anything has really changed at all for me. No ACLs or Achilles or anything that's gonna really change the production of rookies at this point.

[FantasyFreak]

I think the bottom of the draft changes more. If guys that are 5th round NFL drafted players starting moving up depth charts, it might push them up a bit, but the top of the draft should remain the same, barring major injury or suspension.

[skip]

Nothing should change, but owners are fickle and the mere mention of a relative unknown making an impact in camp will send the buzzards circling. Injuries will no doubt shake up things a little.

[clarion contrarion]

I agree with skip ^^^^
impossible to tell what will happen in your draft at this point after barkley who short of retiring from football to become a concert cellist will be the 1:1 . Don't over think or get antsy; you are poised to get several solid players . Just work the board during the draft and take best player on your board unless there is a player you just have to own and then at that point you can make the move based on the pick OTC.
It is a great time to post some glowing praise filled disinformation on the message board about players you are not so fond of to "help" your league mates pick players you really don't want allowing your targets to fall into your lap. Of course praising their wisdom for sniping those players is the mandatory follow up maneuver .

[TheGoat21]

Out of curiosity, who do you have in those tiers?

[johnnymozart]

Barkley
...
...
...
...
...
Guice
Penny
Rojo
Michel
Chubb
Moore
Freeman
Kerryon
...
...
Ridley
Sutton
Kirk

Something like that

[Servo]

I get some have drafts late because the league likes to meet up and it's the only time available but having drafts late in general I don't like as it takes a lot of scouting and evaluation out of the equation. However, to answer your question, remember Tajae Sharpe? Guy was a 4th+ Round flier who had good production in college at an early age. I remember him zooming up boards into the late 1st or early 2nd once he was performing better than DGB.

Even though Romo didn't officially go out until the last preseason game, Dak Prescott was probably a Free Agent or late round pick in most rookie drafts in 2016. If I remember correctly, he had a really good offseason, became the backup and had some great preseason games boosting his value a lot more.

[millworkguy]

Even though Romo didn't officially go out until the last preseason game, Dak Prescott was probably a Free Agent or late round pick in most rookie drafts in 2016. If I remember correctly, he had a really good offseason, became the backup and had some great preseason games boosting his value a lot more.

No idea about others, but dak went in the early to mid 5th in all my 16 team leagues his rookie year. 8 round draft. He went in the 7th in my 1 12 team that year. All 4 of those leagues draft Late may early June.

But I do agree with the premise that later round gems may become busts or be overdrafted based on coach speak and will see a greater jump (change) in value relative to their previous average draft position

So I wouldn't worry too much about the top 16 , and they have the draft capital and skill behind them to carry that draft value

[Weeman]

Tiers will change if injuries & coach speak takes place. Many people value situation more as they hear a guy will get more touches/snaps ect.

Without knowing your team roster & settings it hard to say if you should trade up for 5. You’re going to come away with a talented roster either way.

I’d imagine you’re in a rebuild so keeping the picks & giving yourself a higher chance to convert on those picks should be important.

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

I think the bottom of the draft changes more. If guys that are 5th round NFL drafted players starting moving up depth charts, it might push them up a bit, but the top of the draft should remain the same, barring major injury or suspension.

Yeah, I think it's these later round guys that will change quite a bit. This is the thought process behind how we structured the draft timeline in a league I commish. We already did Rounds 1-2 post NFL-draft, but will be doing Round 3 after training camps finish up and then Round 4 the last week of the preseason.

[DLF3000]

With a collection of high picks, you have options, regardless of draft time. If another top 5 pick is something you'd much rather have, then try to trade a few later 1sts. If you feel you need the extra depth more, stay put.

As for player values, only a very small percentage are likely to change significantly by August. Sharpe, Prescott are a good couple of 3rd-5th round examples already mentioned. Recent 1st rounders would be Mike Williams and Corey Davis. I specifically remember these last two sliding in August - we draft one round per month starting in May.

Out of these four, only one has hit (Prescott) so far while injuries have made the others unknowns (Davis, Williams) or busts (Sharpe, despite some very early success) depending on your original evaluation.

[bucsrule]

Including Barkley there are 8 RBs chosen by their teams with the intent of being 'the man'. These are pretty talented dudes. Don't remember a rookie draft ever that had so many who were interchangeable from 2-6. Most drafts and mocks I've seen have Kerryon and royce the last of the 8. You'll also get a great shot at two of the top 3 WRs in Moore, Sutton and Ridley.

Not sure of your team needs, but at 12 you will have a great shot at a top flight Rookie QB or TE!

I'd stay put and enjoy my majority capital in this years first round.

[turkjetfan]

dont do a thing. you have picks in perfect positions to catch falls all the way through the draft and folks will be picking players keeping your team needs in mind.

grab a net and catch the mistakes.