Joe Mixon Thread: 4 Year extension in Cincy

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mlynarcm
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby mlynarcm » Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:12 am

I put in the advice area about a possible trade of Mixon for Kelce. I wanted to get other people's opinion, because I viewed the twos value as about even. Mixon is unproven, but he's younger and might be going up in value this year with a better O line and Hill gone. Kelce is proven, but he's older and his value might be going down thus year with a new QB and the addition of Watkins.

Plus a RB holds more weight than a TE in a 1 TE league, so I eventually decided to stay with Mixon, but it was close for me. But I'm also aware that Mixon still has the ability to flop and it could turn out to be a bad decision.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby ericanadian » Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:16 am

Ice wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:04 pm
flashgordon12 wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:27 pm I watched every Bengals game last year. Yes he did try too hard at times, but I think to say he has no vision is a tad overzealous. Mixon will be fine, but I hope people temper their expectations a little bit. Bengals line still isn't great
Vision is a scouting term. Mixon was dinged pretty hard in this area by scouts coming into the league. There is a coloration with seeing how a play develops and YPC.

Maybe they will run more out of the shotgun which could help. I watched him a lot and his YPC when the QB is under center has to be under 3 YPC.

Not saying he can't get better but if he doesn't he will have a short career at this level. I get the line can be blamed for some of this but the question has to be asked..... Why didn't Gio suffer in his YPC?

Not convinced Mixon's processing speed is very good.
I haven't looked it up, but I would assume Gio runs to the outside more often and thus isn't as impacted by the quality of the interior line.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby thebeast » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:21 am

Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:00 pm There is too much focus on trying to overcorrect based on what just happened in a year rather than ranking players based on how good we think they are.
It seems to me that Mixon is being valued based on how good people think he will be and not just his rookie year. People see an improving situation - Hil was the starter for the first half of the season last year, he's gone. The O Line has been enhanced. Mixon has a years experience in the league, etc.
Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:00 pm One of my main points remains that many of the rankings in this community seem to default to what the "best case scenario" is for a player rather than a realistic scenario.
Does it matter if you view players as best case or average case as long as you apply the same lens to all players? The disparity happens when people view their players with best case scenario in mind and all other players in a lesser context. You're second sentence above
Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:00 pm Associating a cost into a player who has not proven anything close to his ranking because he is young and has upside is how there are so many errors in this mindset.
This contradicts your statement above that we should rank players based on how good we think they are.

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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby MEuRaH » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:40 am

I think Mixon will be a beast, I just don't think it'll be this year with that terrible O-line. I already sold 2-going-on-3 shares of him. I'll wait until next year or the year after to rebuy the guy.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby John Paul » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:45 am

The Oline should improve. He’s also 15 pounds lighter according to reports. Combine that with three-down RB touches and I was willing to trade my 1.02 for him to try to stack my RB group.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby btv802 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:24 am

skip wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:27 pm I guess if you don't want to factor a player's rookie season in at all to how you value them, then I guess do what you want. But I'm not planning to ignore that at a minimum Hunt and Kamara were both significantly better than Mixon. In the handful of games that Cook played, he looked considerably better. Fournette was obviously better.
FWIW Mixon's best 4-5 game stretch was prob more comparable to Dalvin's 4-5 game stretch than you might realize. Value Mixon however you want, but when I zoom out and look at the big picture, I don't agree that Dalvin should be valued substantially higher. Based on performance...Hunt, Kamara and Fournette you can make the argument for sure. Me personally, I'm still going to target Mixon at his price over those guys.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby skip » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:48 am

btv802 wrote: Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:24 am
skip wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:27 pm I guess if you don't want to factor a player's rookie season in at all to how you value them, then I guess do what you want. But I'm not planning to ignore that at a minimum Hunt and Kamara were both significantly better than Mixon. In the handful of games that Cook played, he looked considerably better. Fournette was obviously better.
FWIW Mixon's best 4-5 game stretch was prob more comparable to Dalvin's 4-5 game stretch than you might realize. Value Mixon however you want, but when I zoom out and look at the big picture, I don't agree that Dalvin should be valued substantially higher. Based on performance...Hunt, Kamara and Fournette you can make the argument for sure. Me personally, I'm still going to target Mixon at his price over those guys.
I have no issue putting Mixon ahead of Cook but that's also due to the injury. I didn't even mention McCaffrey above. I just see no reason to have him valued ahead of several RBs from last season, yet I'm finding him ahead of many of them - in some cases all of them.

Someone above mentioned "best case scenario" and that it isn't a bad thing - provided that the same viewpoint is applied to all players. But that isn't what's happening at all. Instead here is the general mantra we read:

Hunt wasn't nearly as good over the second half of the season (fallacy). Regression coming.
Kamara...regression coming (zero basis for this position)
Fournette has injury problems.
Cook has injury problems.
McCaffrey is only a 3rd down back, will lose lots of carries...

But Mixon is being shielded from any criticism or downside.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby btv802 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:59 am

skip wrote: Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:48 am I have no issue putting Mixon ahead of Cook but that's also due to the injury. I didn't even mention McCaffrey above. I just see no reason to have him valued ahead of several RBs from last season, yet I'm finding him ahead of many of them - in some cases all of them.

Someone above mentioned "best case scenario" and that it isn't a bad thing - provided that the same viewpoint is applied to all players. But that isn't what's happening at all. Instead here is the general mantra we read:

Hunt wasn't nearly as good over the second half of the season (fallacy). Regression coming.
Kamara...regression coming (zero basis for this position)
Fournette has injury problems.
Cook has injury problems.
McCaffrey is only a 3rd down back, will lose lots of carries...

But Mixon is being shielded from any criticism or downside.
I'm not even saying you can't put Cook ahead of Mixon I can see an argument for that. There is plenty to criticize about Mixon but at least we know what that is, we saw the worst of it early in the season and we also saw noticeable improvement over the course of the season. Dalvin came out with a bang, had three good to great games and one bad game in the middle with an ACL tear...and because of that I'd argue his price is inflated more highly than Mixon (currently RB8 vs RB12). I'd guess the average Cook owner (outside of Mixon truthers) would want quite a bit on top of Mixon to make that swap.

My point is, like somebody else mentioned...I won't argue that Mixon's price may indeed be inflated (young w/perceived upside) but in my opinion he is not necessarily the most inflated value among top 12 RBs in ADP right now. This thread should be about somebody else and his name rhymes with Shmalvin Shmook.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby btv802 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:03 am

If you compare Mixon to CMC I think Mixon was actually more efficient on a per touch basis across the board both rushing and receiving...CMC just had one million receptions and that made him an RB1 in PPR. Don't get me wrong I love CMC and tried to acquire him this offseason, just pointing it out.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby maxhyde » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:23 am

thebeast wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:31 pm
Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:43 am We go through this every year with different players. This community puts far too great a premium on youth and perceived upside.

This is the same community who had OBJ & Evans as the only two assets above Cooper.

DLF is very groupthink based and always will be, so when an opinion becomes popular others mindlessly hop on board.

Mixon could be good, but I sold him because I just didn't get the excitement after watching him play.
Oh man. Do you not remember last year everyone was saying Cooper should have been drafted ahead of Gurley? My point isn't that that was wrong, it's that it's too early to write off Cooper. He has two 1,000 yard seasons. Gurley had a flop year and is now in the discussion for 1.01. By definition, consensus values have to be groupthink, and actually, pretty much every community is going to succumb to groupthink. The truth is that the groupthink you refer to is more often right than wrong, while rankings and adp aren't perfect they are pretty darn good.
This...exactly this ^
When group think is lower on a player than you think they deserve is a buy window...when ADP is like Mixon I would suggest selling for his market value because he has to be great to make his current ADP pay off. Not that he can't do it but why hold the risk when you already get the value?
Mixon is probably a bit better than he showed last year and his rookie year kind of reminds me a little of Melvin Gordon's start in the NFL. Highly touted rookie that got carries and opportunities but didn't do much. He wasn't horrible but certainly not great either. Some of that for me was CIN OLine. They were flat out horrible in run blocking and pass protection. If that improves CIN should have a much more dangerous offense which would help Mixon tremendously
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby Ice » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:36 am

btv802 wrote: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:03 am If you compare Mixon to CMC I think Mixon was actually more efficient on a per touch basis across the board both rushing and receiving...CMC just had one million receptions and that made him an RB1 in PPR. Don't get me wrong I love CMC and tried to acquire him this offseason, just pointing it out.
Interesting take but I am not so sure efficiency per touch is a real good measure between these two given the differences in their game and QB.

Rushing:
CMC was marginally better at 3.7 YPC but didn't carry it too much. Stewart BTW was 3.4 YPC which was worse than both CMC and Mixon.

Receiving:
CMC's yards per catch was worse than Mixon but CMC also had 50 more receptions which historically drives down yards per catch due to volume.

What was impressive was Mixon caught 30 or 34 targets. Catch to targets may be more a function of QB efficiency. McCaffrey dropped only 5 or 113 targets and had 80 receptions. What is not so good for Mixon is he dropped 3 of those targets. Dalton looks deadly accurate on short passes to RB's.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby btv802 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:19 am

Ice wrote: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:36 am
btv802 wrote: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:03 am If you compare Mixon to CMC I think Mixon was actually more efficient on a per touch basis across the board both rushing and receiving...CMC just had one million receptions and that made him an RB1 in PPR. Don't get me wrong I love CMC and tried to acquire him this offseason, just pointing it out.
Interesting take but I am not so sure efficiency per touch is a real good measure between these two given the differences in their game and QB.

Rushing:
CMC was marginally better at 3.7 YPC but didn't carry it too much. Stewart BTW was 3.4 YPC which was worse than both CMC and Mixon.

Receiving:
CMC's yards per catch was worse than Mixon but CMC also had 50 more receptions which historically drives down yards per catch due to volume.

What was impressive was Mixon caught 30 or 34 targets. Catch to targets may be more a function of QB efficiency. McCaffrey dropped only 5 or 113 targets and had 80 receptions. What is not so good for Mixon is he dropped 3 of those targets. Dalton looks deadly accurate on short passes to RB's.
That's all fair. I was pulling it out of my bleep a bit. Neither were particularly efficient as rookies and what it was meant to illustrate is that in reality their actual production was much closer than their finish in PPR would indicate. CMC just did his damage almost entirely in the passing game and racked up loads of receptions.

If you look at it by combined rushing attempts/targets, rushing/receiving yards and rushing/receiving TDs it looks like this.

CMC: 197 touches, 1086 yards, 7 TDs
Mixon: 208 touches, 913 yards, 4 TDs

I kind of expect that this is CMC's ceiling in fantasy and really how he's best used, which isn't a bad thing. On the flip side I think there is a really good chance that Mixon's touches in both the rushing and receiving game go up with potential for quite a bit more TD production.
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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby Goddard » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:43 am

I will admit that the Mixon hype is very high, but I'm one of the guys that likes him and thinks he hasn't really had a chance to really show us what he can do. I won't go into why I think he's going to be very good because plenty already have and it won't change anyone's mind anyway until he actually shows something. What I don't understand is the amount of hate this guy gets. Sure, there's a lot of love and people really high on him, but the rest of the community just despises this guy for some reason. I said from day one that I don't expect much his rookie season and he actually surpassed some of my expectations. But people make it sound like he's a bum and will never be any good. He's 21 and had a reasonable rookie season behind a terrible o-line and a terrible coaching staff.

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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby Johnny Canuck » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:06 am

I think the "hate" comes from the obscene valuation that the player currently maintains based on very little evidence. It feels like the equivalent of someone saying that a player is better "because I said so."

Also I feel like "hate" is a strong word. It feels more like anyone that opposes the "Mixon is amazing/top 10 RB season coming!" view is deemed a hater. When in reality, most just want an accurate valuation based on evidence, and are annoyed by all the fanboys that blindly state Mixon is great without providing evidence why.

Obvs some do evaluate and still like Mixon, which is totally fine. I agree that the theoretical oline improvements should help, and a change in coaching would prob help as well. Hell, I still think Mixon could be a decent RB, I just think his current valuation is ridiculous. And if you don't think it's ridiculous, please make an argument that makes sense/is more than the "eye test" or "he's great just because" type of arguments.

I would argue that Mixon is far from elite currently, and is just above replacement level right now. That doesn't mean he can't have a productive fantasy/NFL career, it just means it'll be based more on volume instead of efficiency. Unless he drastically improves his skill set, which is possible being such a young RB.

A couple other stats from PFF that throw some shade...
- Mixon had a league-worst 23.7 elusive rating due to the fact he forced just 21 missed tackles on his 208 touches last year.

- Mixon's 2.34 average yards gained after contact ranked 25th out of 28 running backs.

- Mixon’s 15.3 breakaway percent — the percentage of his total yards he gained on runs of 15-plus yards — ranked 26th out of 28 running backs.

- Mixon broke off 15-plus-yard runs on just five of 177 attempts (2.8 percent).
Considering the aforementioned stat about Mixon facing the sixth-easiest average box advantage, and being tied for the fifth-worst yards per carry. It's pretty easy to see that his "league worst 23.7 elusive rating"/vision has a lot to do with his poor 2017 season.

If you're expecting a big bounce back from Mixon, you have to be banking on volume being the primary catalyst, because it doesn't appear that he's all that efficient with his current skill set.

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Re: Mixon to the Hall of Fame

Postby Goddard » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:11 am

The valuation might be high, but I have to believe there are several other players in a similar situation that haven't produced much and still highly rated. And yet, we have this thread on Mixon and not the others. People can love or hate whoever they want, I just don't understand it half the time, and not just with Mixon.


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