So you're telling me there's a chance! Chris Carson Edition ***POLL***

[_yeti]

Inception of the thread from the "Forum Turnover" thread this summer (small premature victory lap), well this thread turned into quite a doozy didn't it:

Re: Forum Turnover
PostFri Jun 01, 2018 11:22 am

3) Repetition and lack of depth
I have gotten frustrated (as others have mentioned) with the consensus view being stated as if it is just fact over and over without much analysis. It starts to feel like what is the point of refuting this to someone? I used to try to take deep dives on the threads I would post in but it started to seem pointless and like not many people cared to hear it.

7) Economy + political landscape
Not to make this not about football, but I think the tumultuous state of the country has taken a lot of the enjoyment out of people's hobbies and contributes to this.

Just addressing these two points... I love reading your takes because they are thought provoking as opposed to the all-too-common "+1", "x2", or brevity of an answer that adds nothing to a topic (i.e. which player, X or Y? Answer: X)

As for the economical/political landscape, this could be a very long topic probably more fitting for the "off topic" section but I don't think there is a whole lot has changed in this area - only how much we pay attention to it. The players change, the agenda doesn't. It's just a steady stream of increasing taxes, eroding freedoms, and moral decline. The biggest change is really just access to information. I'll leave it at that rather than go further down this rabbit hole.

Thanks Skip. See, now I want to post some more again. Look for my piece on why Chris Carson will still have a viable career coming summer 2018 haha

[notweswelker]

Carson is third in the NFL in rushing yards after first contact.

That's a pretty hard to ignore stat, especially considering how early he is being contacted behind that awful O-Line. I think the truth is pretty simple, Carson was underrated, Penny was overrated, and because of the draft capital involved it's going to take a while for people to admit this conclusion.

[Phaded]

It has been proven multiple times that yards after contact and broken tackles do not have a correlation to fantasy success.

You can nitpick any stat to support your case.

For example, he has faced an 8 man box only 13% of the time and there are 14 who have faced an 8 man box 30% or more. It is no secret it is harder to run against an 8 man box.

Be careful what stats you use to validate points, most have little fantasy relevance.

[notweswelker]

It has been proven multiple times that yards after contact and broken tackles do not have a correlation to fantasy success.

You can nitpick any stat to support your case.

For example, he has faced an 8 man box only 13% of the time and there are 14 who have faced an 8 man box 30% or more. It is no secret it is harder to run against an 8 man box.

Be careful what stats you use to validate points, most have little fantasy relevance.

That's a glass house there.
You don't need to stack a box if the O-line is awful, which is the primary reason teams haven't vs the Seahawks.

Do you have any evidence that supports the notion that YAC and broken tackles have no correlation to fantasy success? Not trying to be fresh I'm honestly interested in reading that.

[Phaded]

I think my point about meaningless stats went over your head if you think I was trying to make a serious point about the 8 in the box stat. My sole point is anyone can find a statistic to support their case.

It was an article somewhere a couple years ago - it might have even been an article here on DLF. Unfortunately, I do not completely remember what it was called or even which analysis site it was on.

[_yeti]

I'm not sure what Carson could do to convince his haters he's actually a good back. Just one of those polarizing situations where people dug their feet into the ground the second the draft happened. Can you imagine if Penny was putting up the games Carson is and Carson was putting up Penny's? People would be saying game over, literally the only thing that has made this a debate is draft capital.

Even if people grudgingly accept him they will be waiting for any falter to say HA told you so. Also, hilarious offers have started coming in for him at prices appropriate for before he was solidified as the starter. "I want in now, but at the old price!"

[notweswelker]

I think my point about meaningless stats went over your head if you think I was trying to make a serious point about the 8 in the box stat. My sole point is anyone can find a statistic to support their case.

It was an article somewhere a couple years ago - it might have even been an article here on DLF. Unfortunately, I do not completely remember what it was called or even which analysis site it was on.

Yeah I guess so. I find most stats are helpful taken in context, but I guess you could just ignore everything and rely on?

[notweswelker]

I'm not sure what Carson could do to convince his haters he's actually a good back. Just one of those polarizing situations where people dug their feet into the ground the second the draft happened. Can you imagine if Penny was putting up the games Carson is and Carson was putting up Penny's? People would be saying game over, literally the only thing that has made this a debate is draft capital.

Even if people grudgingly accept him they will be waiting for any falter to say HA told you so. Also, hilarious offers have started coming in for him at prices appropriate for before he was solidified as the starter. "I want in now, but at the old price!"

Yeah. I think he's a good back but his role is precarious. He'll have to keep doing phenomenally and avoid injury to hold it. I've got more Carson shares than Penny so I'm rooting for Carson, also just love the underdog 7th round pick bulldozing his way to the job.

[ArrylT]

Looking forward to hearing from yeti in regards to Carsons usage / performance this week.

Some will point to the "it took 32 carries" nature of the yardage. I saw him making extra yards when there was no hole, looking fast, running aggressive and finishing runs, pushing the pile. Coaches have the saying "making chicken salad out of chicken s***" and he did a lot of that getting 3 or 4 yards when he was getting contact at the line.

Also, to know a back can hold up with that style for 32 carries is not worth nothing. That bruising wears down a defense, it was always talked about with AP and Lynch, with that style later in the game when they're wearing out they don't want to tackle you anymore and you start to see bigger gains break. Solidifies him as the guy to the point I am considering dropping Penny as a handcuff in redraft (but prospect of injury is keeping me holding him).

Like I said before, a healthy season of this and no question he moves up into the top 15-20 rankings of dynasty backs. At some point his youth and production has to rank, but that will require him to avoid major injury this year.

Thanks - that was basically what I was curious to hear.

[ArrylT]

What goes up must come down I guess ...

https://twitter.com/CPatrickNFL/status/ ... 9858932736

Chris Carson inactive.

[Jigga94]

What goes up must come down I guess ...

https://twitter.com/CPatrickNFL/status/ ... 9858932736

Chris Carson inactive.

Is he even hurt?? As a penny owner I'm excited but that's strange news

[Phaded]

Yeah he is - but Penny has his chance now.

[Phaded]

I see what you did there, Mike Davis.

[Pullo Vision]

Not only did Davis flourish as the bell cow, but Penny got critical 3rd down carries.

[nathanq42]

It's a total mess now... FML