So you're telling me there's a chance! Chris Carson Edition ***POLL***

[_yeti]

I have re-read your first post and to be honest, it's not very detailed nor does it do a good job of selling him. When I watch his tape, I walk away saying "meh".

Is there something more there that you like other than what you mentioned? I am legitimately curious.

Even on top of all this - with that offensive line I have a hard time buying that one RB could be all that productive, let alone two. I would not at all be surprised if Wilson leads them in rushing yards.

If you make the first post too long or detailed people will not read it. I wanted to spark a discussion. You haven't said much of detail other than you don't believe in Carson, and the line refrain has been in Seattle every year and somehow, production pops up.

"Schneider also pointed out that a seventh-rounder Seattle added was used on running back Chris Carson, “one of Pete (Carroll)’s favorite players in the draft that he was rooting for the whole time.”"

To Carsom on draft day:
"Remember your style: You’re gonna hammer it,” Carroll told him. “Physical, tough, knock the s*** out of ‘em. Special teams is a really big deal too. But bringing the attitude -- there’s only one way for you to play. You know that. You were a little uncertain at times, but now you know that because you and I are green on that, right?” -> and that's what Carson did, way more than college.

Carroll on Penny and Carson together:
"He’s going to be a really great threat and we’ll see how we fit him together, he’ll help Chris [Carson], he’ll help Russell [Wilson], he’ll be able to help all of our guys and we’ll fit it all together.”

"Some of the best guys in the league are guys that can play on first down, second down, third down and you’re not tipping your hand because you’re only bringing in a third down guy while you have a first and second down guy. Fortunately, Chris [Carson] is in that same mold. He can play all three downs too and we know that when we saw C.J. [Prosise] healthy, he could also. It gives us a really good, competitive room."

Carroll to Penny draft day:
"We are really excited about this pick and uh know you have a lot to offer and you're bringing us a lot and uh hope you're really excited about this, this is a fine club to come to it's a terrific team and they're gonna be really jacked about you being part of this thing. Um, get your sights set now, we're gonna expect you to do quite a bit now, you're gonna be involved in special teams and you're gonna be involved in spot running back and uh you're gonna have to come in and compete but you're gonna do that just like you always have."

Who does it sound like THE COACH likes more? Maybe just maybe Penny was a front office pick that he didn't want? He certainly had an entirely different message to Carson, very excited and specific, and basically told Penny directly to him you are gonna be a backup. But oh yeah nothing anyone says means anything, only games matter (which Carson rose through the depth chart to start in, but oh yeah that's bc the other RBs were bad, not due to him playing well)...

PFF graded Carson at an 82.5, (Dalvin Cook 83.1, Zeke 83, Gordon 83.8, Mixon 82.5, Henry 79.5, Devonta Freeman 80.3, Lamarr Miller 77.8, Tevin Coleman 76.6, Fournette 76.3, I could go on.) For comparison Gurley was #1 at 92.

Is that enough for now? Go somewhere dude

[Phaded]

I have not said much because there is not much to say - when you watch his tape, he looks like just a guy. There is literally nothing that jumps off the screen about him and it seems like the majority of your argument hinges on off-season coach speak.

I understand referencing PFF - but it is not a great source for future production. After 2015, they had Rawls graded higher than 84, even in 2016 he was almost an 82. So he was graded even higher than Carson was one year and very similarly the next, and I know how we both felt about Rawls.

Pete Carroll is an outdated coach that will likely be out of the league soon.

It was literally just last off-season that he was talking up Thomas Rawls again. This is what Pete Carroll does, he is all coach-speak and public inflation. Then the players he hypes up fall flat on their face more often than not.

[_yeti]

I have not said much because there is not much to say - when you watch his tape, he looks like just a guy. There is literally nothing that jumps off the screen about him and it seems like the majority of your argument hinges on off-season coach speak.

I understand referencing PFF - but it is not a great source for future production. After 2015, they had Rawls graded higher than 84, even in 2016 he was almost an 82. So he was graded even higher than Carson was one year and very similarly the next, and I know how we both felt about Rawls.

Pete Carroll is an outdated coach that will likely be out of the league soon.

It was literally just last off-season that he was talking up Thomas Rawls again. This is what Pete Carroll does, he is all coach-speak and public inflation. Then the players he hypes up fall flat on their face more often than not.

You look like just a guy. Ok, you have no detail to give on Carson. Give me detail on Penny. A lot of it. Give me the why. I'll wait.

*and he talked up Carson much more than anything about Rawls last offseason if you paid attention. Rawls got the tepid Penny like remarks of this year. Read the tea leaves, no um you are in the camp it is undecipherable. Give me the Penny detail, cmon

**Rawls balled out his first year. It was just unsustainable for his body. Also pff grades whether you did your job, not whether someone else could have done it better. Just bc he hasnt had staying power doesnt mean he wasnt doing the right thing. He is just 5'9, slow, and plays like he is Lynch.

Give, give the indepth Penny breakdown. Don't just demand and then lean on the JAG card, JAG

[Phaded]

I am not about dancing in circles like you evidently are. There is already dozens of posts in this thread illustrating the argument for Penny over Carson, so why would I go on to say what has already been said?

I wanted to legitimately know if there was a reason you liked Carson that evidently the majority of this community does not see. Your argument essentially is off-season coach speak so you answered my question.

Also - in case you did not read it I never stated I like Penny. I think he is being overvalued, personally. I just do not think Chris Carson is anything special and the odds are overwhelmingly in the favour of him being irrelevant this time next year.

[Pullo Vision]

From a pure psychological perspective, you don't want the 7th rounder to think his chances at snaps are destroyed, or the 1st rounder to think he'll walk into a starting job. You pump up one, deflate the other, in the name of competition.

Could Carson be like Alex Collins?- low drafted rookie who steals a major role? Could Collins finding success in Baltimore after Seattle cut him play into how the RBs are evaluated and snaps distributed?

[Cult of Dionysus]

In one of the earlier pages, I posted a link to Carson's Week 2 touches last season against San Fran. He looked good. It was also his best game of the year, statistically.

I don't put much stock into what any coach is saying in June and July. Let's see what pre-season tells us. Tape don't lie.

[_yeti]

I am not about dancing in circles like you evidently are. There is already dozens of posts in this thread illustrating the argument for Penny over Carson, so why would I go on to say what has already been said?

I wanted to legitimately know if there was a reason you liked Carson that evidently the majority of this community does not see. Your argument essentially is off-season coach speak so you answered my question.

Also - in case you did not read it I never stated I like Penny. I think he is being overvalued, personally. I just do not think Chris Carson is anything special and the odds are overwhelmingly in the favour of him being irrelevant this time next year.

Clearly misrepresenting what I've said and also a cop out. Also, as a caveat it is always always always easier to be on the vaguely doubting side of a player than to stake a claim (staking a claim is something I see others doing more than you, Nino for example, actually picking a player and why rather than falling into the safety of the group).

•Bigger and stronger than Penny
•Runs harder and with more physicality than Penny
•Penny plays with more finesse than his weight would make it appear on paper
•As a result Carson adds more between the tackles and on the goal line
•Carson is Carroll's boy, had a specific vision for him and Carson was machine like in modifying his style to accommodate that
•Carson crushed his rehab and is built like an ox
•Carson knows the system better than Penny
•Carson beat out the entire backfield to start last year
•Carson graded well on PFF
•Carson has played and produced in the NFL, Penny has not
•Carson has shown he can be a physical force against larger than college NFL defensive players, Penny has not
•Carson played for Oklahoma State in the Big 12, Penny played in for San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference and has tape primarily against lesser competition.
•Carson has been taking the starter reps in OTAs and camp
•Carroll essentially told Penny he would be a backup and literally literally literally told him on draft day he would have "spot RB" opportunities
•Carroll has a history of liking and utilizing physical backs and building around the run
•Carson is more developed in pass protection helping keep Wilson healthy
•Carson is only 1 year older than Penny
•People point to Carsons small sample of college attempts as a negative, actually has less wear on his body because of it (notwithstanding broken leg last year). Penny had 289 attempts last year, 486 in the last 3 years which was a lot of usage
•NFL teams love backs that can give a one cut and downfield style. Less home runs but constant positive yardage. Penny has been criticized as bounce-happy, and you need to be truly elite to make that work as an NFL feature back.
•I could see Penny having more longevity while Carson is run into people until the tread wears off

[ArrylT]

Tape don't lie.

Nope but how people interpret tape or describe it can. If we all watched film and saw things identically then it would not be a problem - but we all perceive things differently. One of the more interesting discussions I listened to regarding this was Matt Waldman & Matt Harmon. It was about WR evaluation but I think the same thing can apply to any position.

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/05/05/m ... tt-harmon/

[Valhalla]

•Bigger and stronger than Penny
•Runs harder and with more physicality than Penny
•Penny plays with more finesse than his weight would make it appear on paper
•As a result Carson adds more between the tackles and on the goal line
•Carson is Carroll's boy, had a specific vision for him and Carson was machine like in modifying his style to accommodate that
•Carson crushed his rehab and is built like an ox
•Carson knows the system better than Penny
•Carson beat out the entire backfield to start last year
•Carson graded well on PFF
•Carson has played and produced in the NFL, Penny has not
•Carson has shown he can be a physical force against larger than college NFL defensive players, Penny has not
•Carson played for Oklahoma State in the Big 12, Penny played in for San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference and has tape primarily against lesser competition.
•Carson has been taking the starter reps in OTAs and camp
•Carroll essentially told Penny he would be a backup and literally literally literally told him on draft day he would have "spot RB" opportunities
•Carroll has a history of liking and utilizing physical backs and building around the run
•Carson is more developed in pass protection helping keep Wilson healthy
•Carson is only 1 year older than Penny
•People point to Carsons small sample of college attempts as a negative, actually has less wear on his body because of it (notwithstanding broken leg last year). Penny had 289 attempts last year, 486 in the last 3 years which was a lot of usage
•NFL teams love backs that can give a one cut and downfield style. Less home runs but constant positive yardage. Penny has been criticized as bounce-happy, and you need to be truly elite to make that work as an NFL feature back.
•I could see Penny having more longevity while Carson is run into people until the tread wears off

I'll need to see at least one more reason...

[Lotto4Life]

You look like just a guy.

This made me laugh. A lot.

[ninotoreS]

Carson isn't going away.

I've said this more than once before, I dunno if it was in this thread or not, but the draft capital investment Penny represents to the Seahawks may not be as much of a shield as one might think. The Hawks haven't shown any loyalty or commitment to any of their RBs since Lynch, even when those guys have played very well for them at times. That includes a 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick. It's dubious to think that a late 1st suddenly changes everything in regard to this.

It's looking a lot to me like Penny will be forced to earn the favor of a mercurial coaching staff, to an extent that isn't typical of RBs selected in the 1st round.

Now, with that having been said...

https://twitter.com/alistaircorp/status ... 3831956481

This development keeps Penny in place on my board, despite the Carson stuff. Studying Penny's tape, I wasn't sure if it was inability or lack of care that made Penny such a poor pass-protector. This news suggests it was the latter. And now Penny cares and is making an effort, so this is potentially a big item on my Cons list for Penny that's being quickly remedied.

[Orenthal Shames]

the draft capital investment Penny represents to the Seahawks may not be as much of a shield as one might think.

If Carson ends up the starter, I think it ends up costing Carroll his job. This was only Seattle's second 1st rd pick since 2012. To use it on a running back when the team had so many other glaring needs AND THEN have a 7th rd pick start over that player shows poor player evaluation at the very least.

[Valhalla]

the draft capital investment Penny represents to the Seahawks may not be as much of a shield as one might think.

If Carson ends up the starter, I think it ends up costing Carroll his job. This was only Seattle's second 1st rd pick since 2012. To use it on a running back when the team had so many other glaring needs AND THEN have a 7th rd pick start over that player shows poor player evaluation at the very least.

If Carson does well as the starter, it won't cost Carroll his job. That's like someone saying back in 2012, "If Wilson starts over Flynn after giving Flynn all that money this off-season to be the man, management has to go."
I think it was stupid for them to draft a RB. I thought so at the time and still do. It won't be the thing to cost him his job, though.

[_yeti]

the draft capital investment Penny represents to the Seahawks may not be as much of a shield as one might think.

If Carson ends up the starter, I think it ends up costing Carroll his job. This was only Seattle's second 1st rd pick since 2012. To use it on a running back when the team had so many other glaring needs AND THEN have a 7th rd pick start over that player shows poor player evaluation at the very least.

If Carson does well as the starter, it won't cost Carroll his job. That's like someone saying back in 2012, "If Wilson starts over Flynn after giving Flynn all that money this off-season to be the man, management has to go."
I think it was stupid for them to draft a RB. I thought so at the time and still do. It won't be the thing to cost him his job, though.

When I watch the draft call I don't get the vibe that Penny was Carroll's guy. Watch for yourself below, I don't think he wanted him, I get the vibe the front office wanted to pick an RB high to end the RB carousel that has been going on (while I think Carroll is fine with the carousel).


Also, one way to read it is that it's the team's only first since 2012 so it is precious to them and they can't mess it up, the other way to read it is that the organization doesn't put as much stock into firsts and is willing to frequently offload them and look for players without great draft pedigrees. Second what Valhalla said, Brady taking over for Bledsoe, etc., this isn't uncommon in football, and the end of the first is worlds away from the start. I feel like the end of the first is closer in talent to the third than it is to the top 10 picks. No data to back that up but just my feeling.

[Lotto4Life]

From an FFL perspective, the Seahawks have a pretty abysmal record at drafting offensive talent. Russell Wilson is basically their only hit since Shaun Alexander. A few others have put together some decent seasons, but for other teams (Forsett and Ware, maybe Tate and Collins).