Julio Jones Thread: Traded to Tennessee

[zoster80]

I don't think having NFL records holds waters as a counter argument. It's like citing Adrian Peterson's career stats and asking why he still shouldn't be considered elite.

We all know that Julio has had an elite career overall, but the question is essentially asking if he currently should be considered elite in the eyes of trade value and fantasy production.

I'm with the OP, I've had Julio on my team for a couple seasons and he is frustrating, so much so, that I wouldn't trade for him unless it was cheap. Yes his end of season stats look great, but it's fools gold.

Here's a Julio owners thoughts before each week last season:

Pre Week 1: Oh baby, Julio is projected for 17 pts, can't wait to see him kill it!

Pre Week 2: He was just shaking some rust off last week, he'll break 10 pts this week...

Pre Week 3: 10.8 pts what the hell Julio, you're supposed to be my stud WR!

Pre Week 4: Alright this is the week, he's bound to blow up this week, right?

Pre Week 6: WTF Julio 3 pts in week 4! I only needed you to get 5 to win!

Pre Week 7: They say to just start your studs but he only got 7.2pts last week, should I start Sanu instead?

Pre Week 8: There we go Julio! 15.9pts! woooo you're back to your old ways!

Pre Week 9: .....Julio what the hell, you were playing the Jets last week, the god'd Jets, and only hit 7.4 pts....

Pre Week 10: Okay here we go, 2 outta the last three over 11 pts, not what we expected, but we can work with that

Pre Week 11: Great, thanks again Julio, a whopping 5.7 pts from my stud WR last week...

Pre Week 12: Catch the damn ball! I'm sitting you down, Woods is playing better, and I would of won some games with him as a starter.

Pre Week 13: WTF WTF WTF, the one time I finally sit you, and you put up 253 yrds and 2 TDs! F U Julio! Dammit!

Pre Week 14: So I put you back in, and this is what you do to me, 24 yards....you're dead to me Julio...I've lost more games than I've won because of you!

Pre Week 15: Nope your staying on my bench, I'm resisting the urge to put you back in.

Pre Week 16: Well you only got 9.8 pts last week, so I'm keeping you on the bench again this week.

*then during week 16: What the hell Julio, of course you go for 150 yards today on my bench after screwing my all season.
**stats for example were in a standard scoring league, but they don't change that drastically in a ppr league. I had him in my 0.5 ppr league and the outcome was the same.

You could argue recency bias if you like, but you'd be wrong. It's not recency bias, if it's a trend, and Julio's play has begun to trend down in a linear fashion. Anyone who says it's not, is simply burying their head in the sand, and remembering the glory days.

It was sooooo frustrating to deal with Julio recently, you never knew when to start him, and when you did you often choose wrong. He's always on the injury report, so you never know how healthy he actually is, or if he's a decoy. His blow up games are unpredictable, he'll go nuts against a difficult secondary, then play a lower end team and do nothing. Hate to say it, but it really reminds me of Calvin Johnson before he retired...

Yes Julio, was a great fantasy asset once upon a time, he's had an amazing career, and he's still a great real life football player, but in no way is he should he still be considered elite in fantasy. He should be viewed as a rich mans Djax at this point, when he booms, he'll single handedly win you your week, but when he busts, he'll lose you your week.

He's the ultimate boom/bust play, unfortunately he busts more than he booms these days.

I swear no lie this was me last season. I have really good options that I sit constantly, either Allen, Evans and even Juju due to feeling like "i should never sit my studs", but I finally sat him on the game he blew up. Of course I put him back in and the other guys outplayed him. I still love him though, but he is frustrating to own.

[Johnny Canuck]

The pro Julio argument is that the ultimate predicator on fantasy WR points is targets and Julio was top 7 in targets last year with 148.

He finished 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards.

The issue with julio isn’t IF he’ll get points, we all know he’ll get points. It is the distribution of those points over a season, consistency, and how predictable his weekly point totals might be.

[Lotto4Life]

I don't think having NFL records holds waters as a counter argument. It's like citing Adrian Peterson's career stats and asking why he still shouldn't be considered elite.

It's not really like that at all.

C'mon really...you get the inference. Don't be foolish.

The last of Julio's four consecutive 1400 yard seasons was in 2014. The argument is about past/present performance. Records are references to past performance. We're talking about current performance.

If it's truly "not like that at all" please expand your thought process...

The FIRST of his four consecutive 1400 yard seasons was in 2014. The LAST of his four consecutive 1400 yard seasons was 2017, which is the most recent season of the NFL. Not sure how much current you want to get.

[Lotto4Life]

He holds the NFL receiving record for most yards per game throughtout his career and is the second receiver in history to post four straight 1400+ yard seasons (the first being Marvin Harrison).

Why wouldn't he be considered elite?

Because that was his past. The talk is about being elite moving forward. Marvin Harrison was great but as of today he is not elite.

The 1400 yard seasons is actually his current. Marvin Harrison's current is retired because he's 16+ years older than Julio.

[Johnny Canuck]

It's not really like that at all.

C'mon really...you get the inference. Don't be foolish.

The last of Julio's four consecutive 1400 yard seasons was in 2014. The argument is about past/present performance. Records are references to past performance. We're talking about current performance.

If it's truly "not like that at all" please expand your thought process...

The FIRST of his four consecutive 1400 yard seasons was in 2014. The LAST of his four consecutive 1400 yard seasons was 2017, which is the most recent season of the NFL. Not sure how much current you want to get.

lol whoops, my mistake. Was reading my excel sheet backwards.

[Lotto4Life]

I would mock you, but I've done the same thing at least once.

[DinoDynasty]

DT had 4 consecutive seasons of 1300 yards+ almost paralleling Julio’s stats from age 25-28. Then he turned 29 and his production has tumbled the last two years... Julio turned 29 this year... just saying

[Dynasty DeLorean]

DT had 4 consecutive seasons of 1300 yards+ almost paralleling Julio’s stats from age 25-28. Then he turned 29 and his production has tumbled the last two years... Julio turned 29 this year... just saying

QB probably didn't have anything to do with that.

[JDogil12]

I always thought elite was top 5 in something... so nobody is considering top 5 dynasty receivers so I dont think this post has much validity to it in the first place. Granted the conversation is nice to have

[PNWHawkfan]

I don't hate on Julio. I hate on Sarkesion. And I started Julio every single week last year. Frustrating? yes at times it certainly was. I'll be starting him every week this year as well. And I'll be cursing Sarkesion I'm sure.

[Shcritters]

DT had 4 consecutive seasons of 1300 yards+ almost paralleling Julio’s stats from age 25-28. Then he turned 29 and his production has tumbled the last two years... Julio turned 29 this year... just saying

QB probably didn't have anything to do with that.

Beat me to it.

[Orenthal Shames]

It all depends on team makeup. You should be looking at a 2-3 year window and making decisions based upon that. If you're a rebuild, Julio should have already been dealt from your team. If you're a strong competitor, there's no way I'd rather have Arob or Davis/Juju over the next two years. Championships > a sexy futures roster

[srlarson]

julio is the poster boy for guys to throw out early in start up auctions...ad get those lovers to blow some cash...... have a few of those this year...guys I will not touch regardless of price (Julio, Hill, Watkins, Diggs) too much hype not enough production.

[Orenthal Shames]

julio is the poster boy for guys to throw out early in start up auctions...ad get those lovers to blow some cash...... have a few of those this year...guys I will not touch regardless of price (Julio, Hill, Watkins, Diggs) too much hype not enough production.

4 consecutive years of 1400+ yards is not enough production?

[dynastyninja]

julio is the poster boy for guys to throw out early in start up auctions...ad get those lovers to blow some cash...... have a few of those this year...guys I will not touch regardless of price (Julio, Hill, Watkins, Diggs) too much hype not enough production.

4 consecutive years of 1400+ yards is not enough production?

Yeah seriously. Julio is all flash, no substance