I agree. His value is near the top of the range of potential outcomes, both from a yearly and career-long perspective, but it's not at THE top.
Can't agree here. 2016 and 2017 showed both RBs can perform great if things break right but also showed they have significant any-given-year floors. Just because Gurley's good year was more recent doesn't give him more value.
quote=Madadamus post_id=1483076 time=1528780784 user_id=23490]He doesn’t have to be a top 5 RB to justify his price right now. If he puts up what Fournette did he will still be ranked in the top 5 easily.
If he puts up any kind of 300+ point season which is very easy to project he will hands down be the 1.01 next year.[/quote]
For this year, I don't think it's so much his end-of-year totals that will determine his current valuation. Not totally. I think how he does it could play a factor. For instance, if he starts the season poorly with rookie struggles then comes on strong in the 2nd half of the year to finish in that top 5-10 range, people will focus on that finish ans keep/push his value up. If he starts strong but tails off, that will leave people doubting, especially with Eli aging.
Another example- Fournette struggled with injuries all season and lost work to Grant and Yeldon. Add in that other rookies performed more impressively and it now seems clear his valuation last offseason was based on his floor. If another rookie outshines him while he loses work to JStew, it'll be hard to argue against pushing his value down.