Saquon Barkley - Dynasty Discussion Thread

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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:49 am

Madadamus wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:19 pm He’s not at peak value by any stretch of the imagination. Is he close? Yes.
I agree. His value is near the top of the range of potential outcomes, both from a yearly and career-long perspective, but it's not at THE top.
Madadamus wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:19 pmBut he can further the gap, kinda like how Gurley separated himself from Elliott this past year.
Can't agree here. 2016 and 2017 showed both RBs can perform great if things break right but also showed they have significant any-given-year floors. Just because Gurley's good year was more recent doesn't give him more value.

quote=Madadamus post_id=1483076 time=1528780784 user_id=23490]He doesn’t have to be a top 5 RB to justify his price right now. If he puts up what Fournette did he will still be ranked in the top 5 easily.

If he puts up any kind of 300+ point season which is very easy to project he will hands down be the 1.01 next year.[/quote]
For this year, I don't think it's so much his end-of-year totals that will determine his current valuation. Not totally. I think how he does it could play a factor. For instance, if he starts the season poorly with rookie struggles then comes on strong in the 2nd half of the year to finish in that top 5-10 range, people will focus on that finish ans keep/push his value up. If he starts strong but tails off, that will leave people doubting, especially with Eli aging.

Another example- Fournette struggled with injuries all season and lost work to Grant and Yeldon. Add in that other rookies performed more impressively and it now seems clear his valuation last offseason was based on his floor. If another rookie outshines him while he loses work to JStew, it'll be hard to argue against pushing his value down.
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby kamihamster » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:15 am

Can he go up? Yes. I think the question should be is he in the top tier? If he is, then I don't think his value will have any drastic changes to the upside. If he's not.... or if he creates his own top tier, then you'll see his price go up significantly.
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:20 am

People said DJ's value couldn't go up and then it did, so I always cringe at that line of reasoning. I will say, I think there's a bigger chance that it goes down instead of up. For it to go up he'd have to be putting up incredible numbers (which of course is certainly possible). I really would not be surprised if Saquon struggled to run the ball early on, which might put a bit of a temporary damper on him for at least a little while.

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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby fruity pebbles » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:37 am

It can go up. Main way is he becomes a player in a tier of his own. Many compare him to Faulk and Tomlinson, who also happen to be players in their own tier. You had the #1 pick when they played and you had a decided advantage on your league mates. After 1999 and 2000 there were many leagues who thought about dividing Faulk into two players, one for his receiving stats and one for his rushing stats. He was that much of an advantage.

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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:31 am

jeffster wrote: Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:59 am He's very overvalued, and even if he hits he'll still have been overvalued now.

How can that be? Well, I could tell you right now that buying a lotto ticket is a bad investment, and it would be 100% verifiably true. If you happen to do so and then win the lotto, it doesn't change that after the fact. Or maybe a better example: drinking and driving is a bad idea, and the odds are high you might die or kill someone. Just because you get home from the bar at 2am safely once does nothing to change the bad odds of getting home safely.

People are looking at the massive upside and largely ignoring the risk.
To be honest these are good examples. I like this post a lot.

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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby kris_kapsner » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:20 am

I voted "yes", his value is basically as high as it can get right now.

Could he work his way to 1.01 in start ups 12 months from now? Yes, of course that is a possibility...and dare I say it's likely with his skill set and the offense he's going to.

However, he's not far off that right now. And when we talk about "value" it basically boils down to trade value. It's all well and good that a player gets pick at 1.01 or 1.04 or 1.07 or what ever. But, that doesn't tell me their "value". Their "value" is what some owner in the league is willing to pay for a player. And that price is probably peaked right now...or should I say, likely to be plateaued right now, because I don't estimate that his value will drop over the next few years.

What would you pay for Todd Gurley or Elliot right now? Probably about the same that people are getting for Barkley right now. So, his value is peaked. That doesn't mean he's not worth it. Some will say that they would rather pay those prices for Gurley or Elliot and that's ok. But, all three of those RB's are in the same tier for me right now. And then there is a small 2 RB tier behind them with David Johnson and Bell due to the age difference...then the third tier of RB's. And yes, I know that is a stretch to put a rookie in that tier. But, Barkley is THAT special in my eyes.
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby Vcize » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:09 pm

skip wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:26 pm
Vcize wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:55 pm
ArrylT wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:17 pm Can Barkley actually gain any further value??
Of course he can, and that crazy high upside is the reason he's being drafted that high right now. His receiving ability makes him different than previous "generational" top prospects to the point where his upside would make his current value look like pennies.
I don't agree at all. His current price already has that upside baked into his value on the assumption he will reach it.
Did you read the rest of the post you quoted? I don't think his current price is even close to what a 21 year old Marshall Faulk would be worth, which is basically what Barkley's upside is.
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby Lotto4Life » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:44 pm

For some reason I thought Trent Richardson was 1.01 in ADP before he played a down. Maybe that was just a set of rankings I saw, or perhaps going into his second year.

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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby GridironGuerilla » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:25 pm

We desperately need some football action lol.'
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby skip » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:35 pm

Vcize wrote: Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:09 pm
skip wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:26 pm
Vcize wrote: Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:55 pm

Of course he can, and that crazy high upside is the reason he's being drafted that high right now. His receiving ability makes him different than previous "generational" top prospects to the point where his upside would make his current value look like pennies.
I don't agree at all. His current price already has that upside baked into his value on the assumption he will reach it.
Did you read the rest of the post you quoted? I don't think his current price is even close to what a 21 year old Marshall Faulk would be worth, which is basically what Barkley's upside is.
Of course I read the entire post and I also maintain exactly what I stated. His current price already assumes he will produce at that level. I posted numbers earlier for LeVeon Bell's seasonal average over the past 4 seasons. I would be surprised enough if Barkley is able to produce to the same level as Bell, much less ever approach Marshall Faulk's numbers. Isn't that the basis of this entire thread? Is he overvalued? The suggestion that he will produce like Faulk does little but prove my point that he is most definitely overvalued.
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby Vcize » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:02 pm

skip wrote: Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:35 pmHis current price already assumes he will produce at that level.
It certainly does not. You think if we could guarantee that Saquon Barkley would have Faulk's career, he would be going 1.05 in startup drafts? If we could guarantee he was Faulk, he might be worth picks 1.1 THROUGH 1.5 all together in startup drafts. 1.05 startup is not even close to what Faulk ended up being worth, so clearly he is not already being valued as if he will hit those highs (nor should he be).
skip wrote: Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:35 pmI would be surprised enough if Barkley is able to produce to the same level as Bell, much less ever approach Marshall Faulk's numbers. Isn't that the basis of this entire thread? Is he overvalued? The suggestion that he will produce like Faulk does little but prove my point that he is most definitely overvalued.
Um, not that's not the basis of this thread. The thread pretty clearly states "is he at his peak value" and the OP asks if there is any room for his value to go up from what it is right now.

There is no suggestion that he will produce like Faulk. There is the suggestion that is his upside so there is certainly still plenty of room for his value to go up if he hits.

ETA: looks like the poll is asking a totally different question than the thread title and content of the first post, so maybe the two of us are just answering two different questions. I don't really disagree with any of your points if we are talking about the question in the poll.
Last edited by Vcize on Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby Vcize » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:20 pm

ArrylT wrote: Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:29 am Fournette was RB 9/10 in Std and PPR formats Year I and he isnt in the 1st Round of dynasty ADP.

But that is part of what I am asking - exactly how much production is needed from Barkley Year I to justify his already being #5 overall.

Someone mentioned Marshall Faulk, and I am sure it is possible that Barkley could reach Faulk heights but there are other factors at play besides that Barkley may have Faulk upside.

For example both Elliot and David Johnson in 2016 (their first full years as lead RB) put up production better than Marshall Faulks rookie year. They each had close to or over 2000 total yards & 15+ TDs. Yet that wasnt enough production to boost them into 1.01. But an RB 8/9 season Year I of something like 1100 Rush Yrds, 400 Receiving Yards and 10 TDs by Barkley is supposed to be enough vault him into 1.01?

Both Elliot and Johnson are in positions where they could repeat that production - so are several other RBs in a position to put up / repeat as the RB1 in 2018.

And like I said above none of the RBs who produced THE RB1 season for the past 5 years has made it to the 1.01 startup (although I am sure some are taking Gurley the majority are going WR).

If there are 10-12 RBs this year all who score similar total production as Barkley or more AND you have 5-7 WRs who could put up the typical top WR season AND you have plenty of other young RBs who could from year to year be in the RB1 conversation AND you have another class of incoming rookies

then exactly where is the room for Barkleys value to continue to climb?

Thats why I am asking - what do we expect from Barkley year 1 as a floor to keep him where he already is.

It is one thing to be the next Marshall Faulk but how much proof do you need to see that he is on that path?

Obviously if he puts up 1600 yards & 600 Receiving and 15 TDs we'll have a different conversation - but while he is on a team where he can have a safe low end RB1 floor like Fournette / McCoy did - is he actually in a position Year 1 to put up that 400+ point Marshall Faulk like season - and if he doesnt put that up and other RBs do ...
Yeah but the question being asked is whether or not he's at his peak value, and to that the answer is no. If we want to talk about whether he's a good pick where he is (which to be fair, is the poll question in this thread, but the title and actual content of the original post are both asking a very different question) then all of what you've said is certainly very fair.

And David Johnson would have been untouchable were he not entering his age 26 season coming off his big year. If he were 22, as Barkley will be a year from now, it would have been a whole different story.

The Zeke example is a good example of why a guy like Barkley is so hyped. As good as Zeke's year was in real life, he wasn't even in the same stratosphere as David Johnson in fantasy. Zeke scored 309 points to DJ's 412, which is as big of a difference as the difference between Le'Veon Bell and Carlos Hyde. That's why Barkley's upside is so high. Because his upside is that he's a 21 year old with David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell or Marshall Faulk's skillset, and that's just something that a guy like Zeke can't even touch. People mistakenly see two very good players and assume they're basically the same, but the difference is often massive. If DJ were the same age as Zeke the two wouldn't even be in the same stratosphere in terms of what their actual value to a fantasy team is.
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby hockeyBjj » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:24 pm

I voted wrong in the poll. Thread title was different than the poll question. His adp is too high

He’s going before pretty much every rb but Gurley. 50/50 with Zeke. For him to be worth this, he needs to outscore all but one or two of Gurley, Zeke, Bell, DJ and the 17 rbs like cook/fournette/mixon to be worth his adp

Since he hasn’t yet proved it, I’ll need to see him do that his rookie year for me to say the crazy prices and #4 startup were indeed worth it. He needs to finish as at least a top 5 rb to justify his price rookie year. And then be like AB where he consistenly stays in that top 3 slot each year
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby ArrylT » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:37 pm

skip wrote: Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:04 am
ArrylT wrote: Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:29 am But that is part of what I am asking - exactly how much production is needed from Barkley Year I to justify his already being #5 overall.
Because his price tag is so high, he doesn't get a "pass" from me as a rookie and has to produce at an elite level in year 1 and continue to do so for several seasons. Were he to stay completely healthy, he will need to average the following numbers over multiple seasons:

1461 rushing yards
738 receiving yards
87 receptions
11 total TDs

This is Leveon Bell's AVERAGE production over the last 4 seasons if he played all 16 games. I am sure someone will try to make the argument that the numbers he posted in 12 games in 2016 brought those up a bit, but note than the numbers in 2015 brought them down. If you look at both 2014 and 2017 those are very close to those numbers.
Thanks - thats in line with what I was looking for - a concrete idea of what should be expected from Barkley based on his current ADP. :)
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Re: Saquon Barkley At Peak Value?

Postby ArrylT » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:39 pm

hockeyBjj wrote: Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:24 pm I voted wrong in the poll. Thread title was different than the poll question. His adp is too high

He’s going before pretty much every rb but Gurley. 50/50 with Zeke. For him to be worth this, he needs to outscore all but one or two of Gurley, Zeke, Bell, DJ and the 17 rbs like cook/fournette/mixon to be worth his adp

Since he hasn’t yet proved it, I’ll need to see him do that his rookie year for me to say the crazy prices and #4 startup were indeed worth it. He needs to finish as at least a top 5 rb to justify his price rookie year. And then be like AB where he consistenly stays in that top 3 slot each year
Thanks! Thats more of what I was curious to see - who he's have to beat, or at least be in the ballpark re: production.
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