TL;DR at the bottom.
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HOW TO TRADE LIKE A CHAMP!
INTRO
I love the Dynasty Team Advice section of these forums. I get to see player value opinions and help others with advice and insight. I wondered if I could possibly help owners with a mathematical approach to trading, rather than a "gut feeling" approach. My favorite way to analyze player value is to compare them to rookie values, because rookies have a clearly defined value associated to them in the form of rookie draft picks. Barkley, for example, is worth the 1.01 selection, Guice the 1.02, and so on. By comparing veterans to rookies, you can get an idea of their value on the market in the form of rookie selections. It's an inexact science, but it's helped me become a decent trader in any league. Trades can be broken down to 3 basic forms. I'm going to cover all of them in this article.
BEFORE YOU READ ON, you should familiarize yourself with two tools that will help us trade. The first tool, which is my favorite: Mizelle's ADP Utility (LINK). I don't know how he finds the time to do this, but Mizelle (cmizelle on these forums) has created accurate ADP data since the 2013 season and updates it monthly in an easy-to-read format. Positions are separated by color, pick data is displayed on the left and right sides giving you useful information... it's glorious. I appreciate all the work and effort he and countless volunteers have given to help keep it going after all these years. It's updated monthly and can be used year-round, and that's why I love it. However, because there are only 6 MOCK drafts used to create the stats, its player valuation can be slightly off. But these mock drafts are carried out by dynasty die-hards, so for the most part, I find it accurate 95-99% of the time.
You will also need to be familiar with MY ROOKIE PICK TRADE CHART (LINK). The chart is downloadable, customizable for you, and is supported via 15 years of player data. MFL Admins have called it "the best trade pick chart" several times over. Check it out before you continue, because we will be using it below. If you're looking to swap out DRAFT PICKS for DRAFT PICKS, then you don't need to continue reading. Check out my old article in the link and you'll find a gold mine of information. Those types of trades will not be talked about below.
Ready to begin!? Here we go:
TRADING SCENARIO ONE: PLAYERS vs THIS YEAR'S DRAFT PICKS
This is, perhaps, the easiest one to teach, so that's where we'll start. How many times have you wanted to trade into this year's draft, but had a hard time finding value? Or, conversely, had a draft pick in the mid-late 1st round and wanting to trade out for a veteran player but you aren't sure who you could get? For what it's worth, "this year" = the current season you are in. I'm writing this article in 2018, but "this year" could = 2019 or 2020, etc. Anyway, moving on.....
Suppose you have TY Hilton and you're looking to trade into the rookie draft. After checking out Mizelle's ADP Data (LINK), you find that TY Hilton is being drafted 32nd in startups. Darrius Guice is 31st, so TY Hilton's value is approx 1.02. Easy-peazy, lemon-squeezy, right? Keep in mind, this is the AVERAGE value.... some people have him rated higher, some lower. Use your judgement. The point of this whole article is to give you solid ground to stand on when doing these things.
The reverse can be said about owning a draft pick. Let's say you own 2.02 in a 14-team league, and you were planning on using that pick to draft one of the top TEs in this rookie class because you desperately need one, but ALL of em were taken before you had a chance, and now you find yourself on the clock with no TEs to take. All you gotta do is compare your pick to the ADP data to find out what you can afford. The 2.02 pick in a 14-team league is the 16th rookie pick overall. Looking at Mizelle's ADP Data....... so easy to use.... you'll notice that all the Rookies listed have (R#) next to their name. This stands for ROOKIE NUMBER, aka the average draft position taken in rookie drafts. You need to compare with the 16th rookie, so just scroll down until you spot (R16), and that's Dante Pettis @ 130 overall. TEs are labeled in red, and the TE right next to the 130 pick is Jordan Reed, so maybe an offer for Jordan Reed would be a good place to start. Just ahead at 122 is Greg Olsen, so that might be worth a shot as well. Below that you have Walker, Ebron, Eifert, and Doyle, all in the 148-152 ADP range. You could possibly offer the 2nd for one of those guys an a throw-in 4th rounder. The point is..... using this system gives you options that you didn't have before.
TRADING SCENARIO TWO: PLAYERS vs FUTURE DRAFT PICKS
In this scenario, maybe you are rebuilding and you need to offload all of your older vets. Or maybe your roster is SO GOOD that you can afford to dump players for future picks. Or maybe you had a good team in August, but after a 1-6 start, you decided to trade away players for picks in October. Time to begin:
Any future draft pick you acquire is going to remain a mystery as far as how valuable it is until the season ends. If you acquire 2 future 1st rounders, both could be the 1.11 & 1.12 picks...... or if lucky...... the 1.01 & 1.02 picks. The difference between these picks is ASTOUNDING, and estimating what you're getting in return is how to set yourself up for success.
Suppose you're in rebuild mode in a 12-team league, and you waited until August to start trading pieces away. This is a good call, because there are injuries that have occurred, and other owners need replacements. You have Golden Tate at 29 going on 30 years old, and nobody else worth mentioning..... what do you do? First, you need to figure out what his value is..... approximately. You won't get 100% accurate trade value this time around, because draft picks for 2019 are yet to be assigned, so the best you can do is an estimate. Again, go to the Mizelle chart real quick, and you'll notice that Tate is about 62nd overall, between 1.07 & 1.08. This means he's worth a mid-late 1st rounder.
Your objective is to get as much in your return as possible, but knowing the value will help you narrow down where to look. Start scanning the rosters of the teams first. Look for a roster with 1 or 0 "studs" (Zeke, Bell, DJ, OBJ, Hopkins... anyone in the 1-20 ADP range or so) and 3 or less "starters" (anyone in the 21-60 range). These teams are the ones that are good enough to want to trade with you, but not so elite to win it all or even make the playoffs. Start offering the worst of these teams Golden Tate for their future 1st. PRO TIP: Find the team that NEEDS a WR for a quicker trade.
If you are looking to upgrade during the season, the reverse is true. Maybe you have several future draft picks and you're looking to upgrade now for a playoff run. Find out how much your future draft pick is worth using Mizelle's chart, look for players at the position you wish to acquire, and then start making offers. Again, it won't be accurate, but it'll give you an idea of who you can afford. PRO TIP: You'll get more "yes" responses from teams who have bad records, since they are probably giving up on the season and looking to rebuild next year.
TRADING SCENARIO THREE: PLAYERS vs PLAYERS
This is the hardest one to do, and the sole reason I'm writing this article. I wanted to figure out a reliable way for people to be able to trade players without the hassle of arguing about value, and I think I've found it. The biggest problem is that the best way to gauge value is to compare with rookie picks, but the fluctuation of rookie values each and every season makes this difficult. For example, Alshon Jeffery was 31st in ADP in June of 2017, giving him a value of 1.04 equivilent in 2017, yet is now 40th in ADP in 2018, but his rookie comparison is 1.03.
So how does a guy DROP 9 spots and GAIN value? The reason is that you're comparing Alshon Jeffery to different draft classes, and since different draft classes are stronger and weaker, your valuation of a player will change from year to year when comparing CURRENT rookie picks. That means when you're trying to trade Alshon for Golden Tate (for example), you might have to give up more value using Mizelle's chart than you should, simply because of rookie fluctuation.
The solution? Find a system worthy of proper comparisons by taking the average rookie value over time and relating those averages to a stable ADP that doesn't change, and I did just that. Here's how: I took all rookie data from every month, beginning March of 2014 and ending June of 2018 (I didn't include 2013 because that was a terrible draft, which made it skew the results). This whole process took WEEKS, but I finally managed to boil it all down and averaged out all draft picks over that span, and came up with the following:
The result? A perfect way you gauge value from player-to-player across the board, by comparing them to the average draft pick value over time. This will help stabilize player value, and when paired with my Draft Pick Chart (LINK), you can accurately compare the value of players and help you make a deal, without worrying about losing value in the process. FYI, this process was extremely difficult the deeper I looked into rookies, so there is no data for 4th rounders. Use your best guess.
Let's take it for a test spin.
Suppose I have Andrew Luck as my only real option at QB, and I want to upgrade to ensure I have a guy who will actually play this year (I'm joking, just bear with me), and I notice a team owns both Aaron Rodgers & Carson Wentz, so I decide to make an offer for Wentz. What's a fair offer?
Well, Luck's ADP is hovering around 81 according to Mizelle's ADP. 81, according to the chart above, is worth about the 1.10 draft pick on average. Now I go to the spreadsheet aka Rookie Draft Pick Chart and enter "10" in the "Give" column. Wentz has an ADP of 47, and according to the chart above, 48 is about the 5th pick, so I enter "5" in the "Get" column on the spreadsheet. The result? I owe ~1500 points worth of value if I expect to send a fair offer to acquire Carson Wentz. How much is 1500 points worth? According to the spreadsheet, that's about the 8th overall selection. Now, going back to the chart above, the 8th selection is 70th in ADP, so looking at Mizelle's ADP Data, I look to add a guy like Parker, Robert Woods, Ajayi, etc along with Luck to make that happen. Mathematically, I know I am giving an even/fair offer right off the bat.
Try that again? Let's pretend you are in the driver seat this time. Someone offered you a trade of the following:
GIVE: Kenyon Drake
GET: Michael Crabtree
Even though it might sound even at first, checking Mizelle indicates that these two guys are WAY apart in value. Drake is 61st while Crabtree is 97th. You could use the extra WR and you like Crabtree's upside, so you decide to counter. Drake at 61 is worth around the 7th pick (on average, using the chart above). Crabtree at 97 is worth around the 13th pick. Putting these values in the spreadsheet tells you that the two sides are about 1000 off. 1000 points is about a 13/14 overall pick, and the 13/14 pick in ADP (Chart above) is about 99-104 ADP. So guys like Doctson, Graham, Galladay, Cousins, & Chris Thompson could be added to the Crabtree side to make it a little more fair for everyone.
So, just to clear up what we did, here are steps & flowchart:
(1) Check players on Mizelle's ADP Data, find ADP numbers.
(2) Compare ADP numbers to the chart above to find rookie pick value.
(3) Go to Rookie Spreadsheet and input rookie value in Give/Get columns.
(4) Look at the difference and find that difference in rookie value on the left side of the spreadsheet.
(5) Compare Rookie Value to ADP in chart above to find ADP.
(6) Go back to Mizelle's and look at ADP for possible players to add/subtract.
Find ADP (Mizelle) => Use ADP to find Rookie Value (Chart) => Input Rookie Value (Spreadsheet) to find overall Rookie Value Difference (Spreadsheet) => Use Rookie Value to find comparable ADP (Chart) => Use ADP to find players to add (Mizelle)
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I hope this was helpful. Check out some older articles if interested. Reply below with thoughts/ideas or whatever.
--- Older Articles---
You're Mediocre Team Will Always Be Mediocre
Running Backs: Are We Doing It All Wrong?
The Art Of Improving Through Trade
Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart
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TL;DR
-- Trading is easier when players and their ADPs are compared against rookie picks and their ADPs. The chart above can help streamline the process, along with Mizelle's ADP Data and my Draft Pick Trade Spreadsheet.
