Guide: How To Trade Like A Champ (15 Minute Read)

[Cult of Dionysus]

Two points.

First, really appreciate your efforts in this thread and others. You raise the level of discourse here with your insight and explanations.

Second, think your thread here is excellent for novices. It will ke guys from mid-valuing offers in the short term. However, I fear this approach that you have laid out above misses the picture in one key aspect. It tackles valuations statically. In other words, it gives a snapshot of values at one generally specific point in time i.e. the current season. But it does not account for the fact that player valuations (and to a far, far lesser extent, draft picks) change value, and rather quickly and abruptly at that. Compare any ADP chart from two or three years ago, and a lot of names will be significantly higher or lower (let’s just throw out Dez Bryant and Jerick McKinnon as prime examples). Injuries, coaching changes, free agency, age, and a whole bunch of other factors make the NFL talent landscape ever-changing.

To be really successful at dynasty football, you need to be on the right side of the volitility. You need to jump on guys before their value spikes and sell before their value takes a (or “the”) drop. Neither this nor any other tool that I’ve seen helps with identifying when players values are likely to change. Well, I guess you could say that age charts are a functional tool...

Just food for thought and perhaps someone here can take this point and run with it.

[Triton85]

I just sent this and the links to the entire league I'm in. Even if I lose my advantage of the forum it is worth it to increase the competitiveness and even trades in the league

[kamihamster]

great starting point to formulate a trade. i do some thing very similar using yours and Mizelles ADP. I just didn't have the average value of picks nailed down. as others mentioned you still have to project a bit and try to buy low and sell high, take into account the variables of age and team/scheme, etc. love the work you do, thanks.

[bkfakefootball]

Thanks for posting!

[MEuRaH]

However, I fear this approach that you have laid out above misses the picture in one key aspect. It tackles valuations statically. In other words, it gives a snapshot of values at one generally specific point in time i.e. the current season.

That’s actually not true. I explained that in the OP.

[Madadamus]

I don’t think any champ is using ADP in regards to valuing trades.

I think using ADP to exploit value is the better play.

Also, rookies are highly undervalued in those ADP lists. For example, Kenyan Drake is never sniffing the 1.07 pick as you said he should warrant.

[Cult of Dionysus]

However, I fear this approach that you have laid out above misses the picture in one key aspect. It tackles valuations statically. In other words, it gives a snapshot of values at one generally specific point in time i.e. the current season.

That’s actually not true. I explained that in the OP.

Just re-read the OP, and I think we are talking about different points here. I get that the ADP data is updated on a monthly basis, and so it's a moving snapshot of then current valuations. However, as I mentioned earlier, the guys who do very well at fantasy football, are the ones who know when to jump on a player and when to jump off, before his valuation shifts dramatically. I don't think any chart can ever really account for this, to be honest.

Again, think this is a very useful tool, especially for those guys who don't have a good sense (whether do to inexperience or otherwise) what a relatively fair, balanced deal is.

[MEuRaH]

I don’t think any champ is using ADP in regards to valuing trades.

I think using ADP to exploit value is the better play.

Also, rookies are highly undervalued in those ADP lists. For example, Kenyan Drake is never sniffing the 1.07 pick as you said he should warrant.

I think you're reading into it a little bit. I'm not saying Drake IS worth a 1.07, I'm saying based on the current ADP for startups, 1.07 is an area in which his value currently sits for some people. Some are higher on him, some are lower. You use ADP to help you find possible value.

However, I fear this approach that you have laid out above misses the picture in one key aspect. It tackles valuations statically. In other words, it gives a snapshot of values at one generally specific point in time i.e. the current season.

That’s actually not true. I explained that in the OP.

Just re-read the OP, and I think we are talking about different points here. I get that the ADP data is updated on a monthly basis, and so it's a moving snapshot of then current valuations. However, as I mentioned earlier, the guys who do very well at fantasy football, are the ones who know when to jump on a player and when to jump off, before his valuation shifts dramatically. I don't think any chart can ever really account for this, to be honest.

Oh, I see. You weren't talking about the rookie values that I mathematically computed, you were talking player values. I actually researched that too, but didn't post it because it was so time-consuming and inconclusive. I expected player values to fluctuate greatly over time, as this was originally the main purpose of my research, which would also help rookie values fluctuate. It turns out that this really didn't matter in the outcome.

I found that rookies tend to hold the same value over time. 95% of all rookies stayed within 5-10 spots of ADP on average (May to December). The ones who moved the most were undrafteds or 4th rounders who became relevant during the season.

I found that veterans went up and down mostly based on injuries, and the players who make or break a team over time (top 20) tend to stay the same value. That's not to say there aren't right times to trade away a player before he loses all value (DeMarco last year, McCoy this year) but nothing on a mathematical level worthy of mentioning, which was the whole point of this research.

I get what you're saying, and I 100% agree, I just have nothing mathematical to make out of it.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Yup, it's a bit of a head scratcher re rookie values. Guys draft rookies, hold them while they don't produce or otherwise disappoint, and then still expect the same if not more than they originally used to draft said rookie. I'm as guilty of anyone of this. lol. I still think Leonte Carroo is worth a late 1st.

[BradysBunch]

Thank you for all the time and effort you put into this.

[kamihamster]

I forgot about this spreadsheet that I created. What Meurah has come up with is a really good way to asses values in trades so that you can trade smarter. I made this spreadsheet to asses how your team will perform. You input your projection based off how you rank a player and it will give you their average point per game. You can compare lineups and see if a trade really helps you out or not. Lots of times we'll pay a high price for a blue chip player, but the increase for one position isn't worth the loss at multiple positions, this helps you asses that. Check it out if you want.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =630643305

[Ice]

Excellent article and great info for many players. No real critique needed.

There are lots variables in any trade discussion or trade.

Personally, I trade against ADP often. While it is or can be a decent benchmark it is nothing more than a tool in the tool box.

A few of rules I live by:

1) Understand the competition, players like many of us with decades of experience may do far more research than most so our personal ADP's may vary multiple rounds from the masses. I say this not to advocate against but if ADP is the only justification you may lose often as better players may use it against you.

2) Never offer a competitor of your caliber unless you can justify both sides of a the transaction. Embarrassing yourself or insulting future trade partners is a horrid strategy so better to use a win/win approach when it comes to valuation.

3) Know the rosters of both teams and don't be afraid of overpaying to better your starting points thus giving you a better shot of winning championships.

4) Don't be afraid of making deals with the purpose of moving an asset due to perceived value.

5) Don't walk away from a deal because of others view of ADP. I made a killing off of players like Trent Richardson a few years ago because his ADP was 1.1 for rookies and I didn't even have a 1st round grade on him so moved into that pick/player just to sell at a premium do to perceived value. Conversely, ADP is a function of value compared to an individuals draft slot. It is a decent average but not a true statistical model of skill set.

The Hilton/Guice is a strong value example but when trading cross positions roster need will determine trade success regardless if they are 1 spot in average draft position.