QB valuation in standard single QB start dynasty leagues

[R2D2]

Hi,

I wanted to inquire how owners valued the following tiers of QBs in standard dynasty leagues starting a single QB? I wonder if positional devaluation of QB happens in dynasties similar to redraft leagues, or if QB are/should be valued highly enough and hoarded in 1QB league even when only 12 can start? Understand different owners have different views, was wondering if there was anything close to a consensus in this subject.

I would like to focus on standard dynasty leagues with no positional restrictions as opposed to flex or positional restrictions (where the natural inclination to build depth at the core RB/WR/flex positions is limited and people sometimes max out the QB roster limitation). For scoring, let's assume the regular 4pts/TD, 1 point per 20 yards and -2 points / interception.

This year's rookie QBs have relatively high valuations (ranging from low 1st to 3rd if you are lucky) to land one of the top 5 QB. But how do you value the following QB tiers:

elite QB1: Rodgers, Wilson
consistent upper tier QB1: Luck, Newton
vet QB1: Brees, Brady, Big Ben
rising QB1 with < 2 years of proven experience: Wentz, Watson, Garopollo, Goff
consistent pool of lower tier QB1/QB2 who can produce like QB1: Stafford, Prescott, Ryan, Mariota, Winston, Rivers, Cousins, Carr, and recently Alex Smith
young QB looking to prove themselves: Mahommes, Trubisky

etc in terms of picks or valuation compared to other positions? Any QB trades you have made in this off-season in a single QB setting would also be useful.

I apologize if this has been discussed before. Did a brief search and did not find anything recent. Appreciate links to previous threads that have touched this topic as well.

Thanks.

[Ruggenater]

Values are going to be very different league to league. I've found that most start 1 QB leagues charge more in QB trades than the consensus here would have you believe.

2 trades I made this year involving QBs in a start 1 league:

Gave: Trubisky, Cohen, Crowder, 2.11 (he took Wilkins)
Got: Newton, Dion Lewis, 4.02 (I took Rosen)

Gave: Mahomes, Kyle Rudolph, DJax
Got: Gronk

[R2D2]

My last QB trades:
Got Wentz for 1.9 + 19 3rd + Raekwon McMillan
Sold Stafford for late 17 2.11 + 3.2

Guess I value QB conservatively

[MEuRaH]

QBs are a dime a dozen in single QB formats. Take a look at some startup values. All QBs in this link are yellow: http://www.mizelle.net/mfl/2018/

You'll notice that Aaron Rodgers, the best QB by far, is only taken 42nd on average. That's well into the 4th round of 12 team leagues.

I, myself, can't remember trading for a QB in years. I've been riding the same Kirk Cousins / Tom Brady guys for the last 2-3 years now. I used to own Aaron Rodgers in all my leagues, but then I realized I could sell him for Cousins+, and I've had a lot more success that way.

[R2D2]

Thanks Meurah for the ADP link.

I value QB similarly and am usually content to sit on 2 QB who have the upside to produce top 15 QB numbers, and try to trade a QB away if I have 3 or more in the top 15. I traded Stafford away as I had Big Ben and Carr in that league. Traded for Wentz as the price seemed reasonable, and I had Carr and an aging Rivers in a league where I think I am a top 2 contender. Have Rodgers and Luck in another league, but waiting for Luck to return to full health before I trade one of them away. I usually shy away from drafting rookie QB in the top 3 rookie rounds, due to the low probability in finding a rookie who develops into a top 5 QB, and think it's easier to just trade for one when necessary.

The motivation for this thread arose because I was trying to find a trade partner with reasonable valuation for QBs in a couple of leagues, where I became QB needy due to Luck and staying still at the position.

I am loaded at all the offensive positions except QB where Luck is my QB1 and Flacco my backup. I won the league last year due to a timely pickup of Foles at playoff time and the Gurley explosion. Most of league mates are 3QB deep with players such as Goff, Stafford, Trubisky or Prescott, Ryan, Carr. Tried trading for a QB entire last year, but most owners wanted a contender premium or trying to take advantage of the positional weakness and was being asked Devante Adams for Goff etc last year. I even tried reaching down for productive vets like Rivers/Roetlisberger for late 2nd/early 3rd but was countered with Tevin Coleman/1st.

This year, so far been offered Goff for 1.12 + (different owner) and the Carr owner still seems wishy-washy around trading for Crabtree. I am not sure if this over-valuation is league specific (there are no QB friendly settings that I am aware of) or trying to take advantage of weakness or limit a contender.

In these situations where you can contend with the right QB, what would you recommend
a) continue the course and wait for the right opportunity to trade
b) overpay for the QB
c) draft a rookie, even though it seems like the draft pick is better served trading for a vet (I would hate to draft QB at 1.12 when you can draft other positions of value)

[skip]

It depends entirely from your own viewpoint. ADP is not reflective of proper valuation within the position. There is no difference at all if you are getting a five point advantage at QB by having a top option versus the same five point advantage at another position. We just had the same discussion in another thread within the past week and I am fully aware that there are some that taken entirely different viewpoint on this issue than I do. I realize that to an extent it is rather anecdotal, however in my experience the teams that consistently reach the playoffs and win titles are the ones with the top QBs.

[Valhalla]

It depends entirely from your own viewpoint. ADP is not reflective of proper valuation within the position. There is no difference at all if you are getting a five point advantage at QB by having a top option versus the same five point advantage at another position. We just had the same discussion in another thread within the past week and I am fully aware that there are some that taken entirely different viewpoint on this issue than I do. I realize that to an extent it is rather anecdotal, however in my experience the teams that consistently reach the playoffs and win titles are the ones with the top QBs.

I agree with this

[Valhalla]

Lengthy discussion on this topic

viewtopic.php?t=115349

[R2D2]

16 page discussion eh? Will take some time to digest.

Thanks Valhalla!

[psu007]

Thanks Meurah for the ADP link.

I value QB similarly and am usually content to sit on 2 QB who have the upside to produce top 15 QB numbers, and try to trade a QB away if I have 3 or more in the top 15. I traded Stafford away as I had Big Ben and Carr in that league. Traded for Wentz as the price seemed reasonable, and I had Carr and an aging Rivers in a league where I think I am a top 2 contender. Have Rodgers and Luck in another league, but waiting for Luck to return to full health before I trade one of them away. I usually shy away from drafting rookie QB in the top 3 rookie rounds, due to the low probability in finding a rookie who develops into a top 5 QB, and think it's easier to just trade for one when necessary.

The motivation for this thread arose because I was trying to find a trade partner with reasonable valuation for QBs in a couple of leagues, where I became QB needy due to Luck and staying still at the position.

I am loaded at all the offensive positions except QB where Luck is my QB1 and Flacco my backup. I won the league last year due to a timely pickup of Foles at playoff time and the Gurley explosion. Most of league mates are 3QB deep with players such as Goff, Stafford, Trubisky or Prescott, Ryan, Carr. Tried trading for a QB entire last year, but most owners wanted a contender premium or trying to take advantage of the positional weakness and was being asked Devante Adams for Goff etc last year. I even tried reaching down for productive vets like Rivers/Roetlisberger for late 2nd/early 3rd but was countered with Tevin Coleman/1st.

This year, so far been offered Goff for 1.12 + (different owner) and the Carr owner still seems wishy-washy around trading for Crabtree. I am not sure if this over-valuation is league specific (there are no QB friendly settings that I am aware of) or trying to take advantage of weakness or limit a contender.

In these situations where you can contend with the right QB, what would you recommend
a) continue the course and wait for the right opportunity to trade
b) overpay for the QB
c) draft a rookie, even though it seems like the draft pick is better served trading for a vet (I would hate to draft QB at 1.12 when you can draft other positions of value)

My quick answer, draft one. I bit the bullet and traded to 2.05 and nabbed Baker. When it comes to trading QB's, even in my redraft league, I either get low balled for the guy I have or they want a premium for their QB. I found it easier and cheaper to just draft a guy.