Geronimo Allison value

[R2D2]

I was wondering what sort of value he has in dynasties, and in GB?

I see he is not on the ranked WRs list for dynasty. Do you think he has a shot at WR3/WR4 duties along with Jon Moore and/or Montgomery?

Feel free to choose 2 options in the above polls (1 for his dynasty value and another within the GB corps)

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Probably the WR3 in GB, but not sure how much that's worth fantasy-wise. I'd pay a mid/late 3rd at most.

[cornhole2412]

I chose 100+ and WR4-6 in GB.

I think he could perform in a higher tier, but GB used some draft capital on WRs this year. Also, being a Packer fan I've only seen 2 or 3 plays that made me go "whoa" out of him. If he has a good camp and settles in to the WR3 role obviously his value will rise, but I'd bet against that.

[skip]

GB used some draft capital on WRs this year

They use draft capital on WRs pretty much every year. I like Allison pretty safely as their #3 for whatever that's worth.

[Novacane]

For reference, he went 3.10 yesterday in one of my drafts. By that point 4 non-rookie free agents had already been drafted so you can move it up a couple picks for valuation purposes. He also went after J'Mon Moore but before ESB, which is the order I rank these guys personally.

[ericanadian]

I'm more worried about the team bringing in Jimmy Graham & Marcedes Lewis. The Packers are clearly trying to shift to a more physical offense and I'm not sure the WR3 is going to carry the same value as in years passed.

[ninotoreS]

Allison was undrafted, and now the Packers have spent a 4th, 5th, and 6th round pick this year on more wide-receivers. They currently have 11 WRs total on the roster, with a mob of undrafted and Day 3 selected WRs after Adams and Cobb.

Allison's as good a guess for the WR3 job as any, but is that assured? Heck no. GB didn't splurge on yet more WRs this year because they were confident in what they already had. Seems to me they're casting a wide net. I think the WR3 in GB this year will be an open competition.

[Servo]

Jordy, Cobb + Adams are the only 3 the Packers have invested nice sized draft capital in.

Over the last few seasons they've just thrown darts in the later rounds on a decent amount of receivers.

- Allison clearly has a leg up considering he has the most game experience
- Trevor Davis, meh
- Michael Clark, got some PT late last year but didn't do much with it

Yancey, STB, MVS and Moore, all a crapshoot in my mind as of today

[Johnny Canuck]

He's a waiver wire guy in shallow rosters (21 spots or less), and a waiver wire pickup/last pick of the 3rd round in deeper rosters (25 spots or more).

I think Allisons ceiling is as one of the very few WR handcuffs. There's maybe 3/4 actual WR cuffs in the league, where the cuff could be great if the top guy goes down, and they are cheapish to begin with: Adams/Allison?, Keenan/Ty Williams, Fitz/Kirk, MT/Meredith. Now that all depends on if Allison wins the WR 3 job in GB (which is anyones guess).

He's maybe worth something to an Adams owner, but in reality, the main guys in GB will be Adams/Cobb/Graham, and you'll likely be cutting Allison for the next big WW addition or bye weeks.

[ninotoreS]

There's maybe 3/4 actual WR cuffs in the league, where the cuff could be great if the top guy goes down

Allison is probably JAG. You look at his athletic profile, and there's nothing interesting about him except his arm-length. He wasn't impressive in college, he wasn't drafted, he had one good game last year in week 3 and was abysmal the rest of the season (finished with an overall PFF grade of 44.0).

Calvin Ridley might be a valid cuff for Julio owners, and A. Brown owners might want to try to get JJSS. These are real 'WR cuffs' worth pursuing. Adams and Allison? Nah.

[Johnny Canuck]

There's maybe 3/4 actual WR cuffs in the league, where the cuff could be great if the top guy goes down

Allison is probably JAG. You look at his athletic profile, and there's nothing interesting about him except his arm-length. He wasn't impressive in college, he wasn't drafted, he had one good game last year in week 3 and was abysmal the rest of the season (finished with an overall PFF grade of 44.0).

Calvin Ridley might be a valid cuff for Julio owners, and A. Brown owners might want to try to get JJSS. These are real 'WR cuffs' worth pursuing. Adams and Allison? Nah.

The big difference is Ridley and JJSS have stand alone value and are not cheap in the slightest. A cuff is someone who has very little to no value unless the player directly above them on the depth chart was to go down. They should also be very cheap.

It's possible that we slightly disagree about what characteristics define a cuff.

I agree that Allison is not the sexy name, but neither was James Jones. Rodgers can make his WRs better than they are. In fantasy opportunity is king, and if Adams was to go down, you can bet that Allison would be the top WW pickup, making him a solid handcuff (at least until one of the rookies emerges).

[Bo Jackson]

So... thinking about grabbing him off WW... Rodgers does make WR stats go up. Would only want him hoping to flip for value some point.

Anyone grabbing him?

[Servo]

Don't know off the top of my head but how many games have Cobb/Adams missed over the last couple of years? That's all it takes for Allison to step in and produce, I'd probably temper my expectations until something like that happens.

[Johnny Canuck]

Don't know off the top of my head but how many games have Cobb/Adams missed over the last couple of years? That's all it takes for Allison to step in and produce, I'd probably temper my expectations until something like that happens.

I'm bored waiting around at work so I'll look into this and see what pops up.

2017: Adams, missed weeks 16/17. Cobb, missed weeks 3/13. Jordy, missed weeks 2/17.

Allison's Stats in 2017, in a week that either Adams, Jordy, or Cobb missed.
Week 2 = 3 for 5, 24 yards. 52 air yards, 10% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Jordy out) 5.4 ppr points.
Week 3 = 6 for 8, 122 yards. 114 air yards, 19% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 18.2 ppr points.
Week 13 = 0 for 1, 0 yards. 19 air yards, 5% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Cobb out) 0 ppr points.
Week 16 = 1 for 3, 9 yards. 26 air yards, 8% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Adams out) 1.9 ppr points.
Week 17 = 2 for 3, 15 yards. 11 air yards, 9% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Adams & Jordy out) 3.5 ppr points.

2016: Adams, no missed games. Cobb, missed weeks 8/16/17. Jordy, no missed games.

Allison's Stats in 2016, in a week that either Adams, Jordy, or Cobb missed.
Week 8 = 2 for 4, 21 yards, 1 TD. 40 air yards, 11% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 10.1 ppr points
Week 16 = 4 for 7, 66 yards. 81 air yards, 18% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 10.6 ppr points
Week 17 = 4 for 6, 91 yards, 123 air yards, 15% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 13.1 ppr points

At first glance it looks like Allison appears to do better when Cobb is out (not sure if he was moving to the slot for more snaps regarding for those games). He obvs does better with Rodgers at QB, and everytime he's had over a 15% target share he's hit at least 80 yards.

If you only count the games with Rodgers at QB, Allison has averaged 11.48 ppr points per game, whenever one or more of Adams/Cobb/Jordy missed a game. That would of put his ppg ranking just below Josh Gordon, and above Fuller/Lee/Cooper/Garcon/Sanu/Stills, at WR# 33. So a low end WR# 3, and an okay flex play.

Jordy is now gone, and we don't know what Graham will be, so it's a situation in flux. Although there's been chatter about Graham and Jordys role in the RZ being similar, Graham won't be used the same inbetween the 20s, even if split out wide. Even still, if you want Allison to be a thing in fantasy, you'd likely need Graham to be used much less than Jordy was inbetween the 20s, AND one of Cobb/Adams to go down, so Allison can get some consistent 15% plus target share games, resulting in real/confident startable production from Allison.

Not saying it can't happen tho. I fully suspect Graham will be used less than Jordy was, Cobb is already in a walking boot, and Adams has a history of concussions. So it all could come together for Allison, never know I suppose.

Also, in all those games with Rodgers at QB (where one of Cobb/Adams/Jordy missed), Allison was became the WR 3 for the team. So I guess it depends if what you think of Graham to a degree, because if Allison can just be the 3rd WR on Green Bays depth chart, there is a path to WR30ish success there.

And it is his ever important year 3 WR breakout season...

[kamihamster]

i voted WR4-6 in GB. they drafted 3 guys this year after losing Jordy. That tells me they aren't very comfortable with Allison as a full time starter. Maybe they drafted them in anticipation of losing Cobb next year, but I have a feeling they view Allison as a depth guy and hope one of the draft picks pans out into a starter.