ninotoreS wrote: ↑Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:59 am
This is more to the point of what I was replying to. How do you define 'great'?
I'm saying I don't think it's some locked-in probability that Allison becomes more than a fantasy WR3 play if Adams were to go down for the season. It's not even a sure thing yet that Allison wins the starting job in 3-wide. Packers threw a wide net at Day 3 WRs this year for a reason, I think.
Those are slightly different topics.
One, which packers WR is likely to win the 3rd WR job? And two, is the packers WR3 a handcuff of sorts for Cobb/Adams owners?
The Pack def did throw a wide net regarding rookie WRs, no argument here on that, esp after hearing some positive news about Moore early in camp. However, by all accounts this is the role that Allison currently occupies, so I'm just going to go with Occam's razor on this one, but like Servo said, as well as you pretty much, it's worthwhile to keep a close eye on those rookies.
Regardless of who wins the role, If Adams/Cobb all of sudden were out, it's highly probable that the next WR in line, would see a significant jump in trade value/ADP, as well as, a production bump. So even if you don't think the production will be there (I personally think it will and I'll outline why below), the player will still be a great sell high.
This exact scenario could happen for Allison (or whomever wins the 3rd WR role - right now it's Allison), and it's not a stretch to see elevated production after an injury to Cobb/Adams. For example, in games were Allison played with Rodgers, and one of Cobb/Jordy/Adams was out, Allison received a > or = to 15% target share, and avg 106 yards per game. This wasn't a situation that's all propped up by one game either (flawing the avg), Allison had no less than 81 yards in these games...I'd characterize that as pretty great production, not sustainable production, but hell I'll take 60% of that 106 avg yards per game.
Despite the small sample size, I'd be willing to bet there's a
significant correlation between Aaron Rodgers Target Share Percentage and Fantasy Points.
With Jordy is gone, if Cobb and/or Adams were to go down, I think that the Packers WR3 (Allison ATM, but pick your personal favorite lotto ticket) will see a fair bit more work/production.