D'Ontae Foreman vs Lamar Miller

[spotxc]

They're both going to be worth very little come a couple years is my opinion. The long term answer hasn't hit the team yet

[Servo]

Being a Watson/Fuller/Foreman owner I watched as many HOU games as I could and Foreman just looked dynamic aka had the knack to break off big plays and win ball games.

There's no question that volume has played a pivotal role in Lamar Miller being a decent fantasy option for the last few years but you just can't convince me that he's a good running back. It felt like every time he ran the ball it was for a yard or two.

Clearly it's easy for Foreman's instagram to be really optimistic but it's surprising that the Texans have been as well. Does this mean I wouldn't touch Lamar Miller? No, but I wouldn't be trying to pay much nor would I be expecting a whole lot as 2018 moves forward.

[Pew Dogs]

I completely disagree that Miller is a safe RB2 ... I am skeptical that Foreman makes a substantial contribution this year (at least in the first half), but IMO that just means HOU backfield will be a nightmare three-headed monster situation. Miller has never been able to be a feature back in an offense, I don't know why that would change with Foreman's injury. Blue or T Ervin (although his injury is probably worse than Foreman's) will get significant touches until Foreman is recovered.

[b]Miller has at least 1200 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs, and over 30 receptions in each of his last 4 seasons. I would think that would be top 24 fantasy points at the running back position over those seasons. (Can't be bothered to look)[/b]

What has changed? Who is his competition? Has his competition improved this year?

I assume that Miller detractors thought he was a crappy running back from 2014-2017. So why shouldn't this crappy running back post top 24 numbers in 2018?

My league scoring (Quest) has him #15 last year and #17 the year before (can't see further back).

I'll bet more than a few owners won championships with Melvin Gordon and Lamar Miller as their two starting RBs ... and people wondered why when they suck so bad.

[ArrylT]

I completely disagree that Miller is a safe RB2 ... I am skeptical that Foreman makes a substantial contribution this year (at least in the first half), but IMO that just means HOU backfield will be a nightmare three-headed monster situation. Miller has never been able to be a feature back in an offense, I don't know why that would change with Foreman's injury. Blue or T Ervin (although his injury is probably worse than Foreman's) will get significant touches until Foreman is recovered.

Miller has at least 1200 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs, and over 30 receptions in each of his last 4 seasons. I would think that would be top 24 fantasy points at the running back position over those seasons. (Can't be bothered to look)

What has changed? Who is his competition? Has his competition improved this year?

I assume that Miller detractors thought he was a crappy running back from 2014-2017. So why shouldn't this crappy running back post top 24 numbers in 2018?

That is correct - in most typical PPR and STD formats Miller has been a top 24 RB for each of the past 4 years.

I think some of the dislike/distrust comes because while he has always had a safe floor, he never seems to reach that ceiling people hope or expect from him. Even in last year - his worst of 4 seasons - he had 10 games with 10+ ppg but only 2 of 20+.

He's basically an RB version of an Edelman or a Wallace (always a WR2/3 never an WR1), and RBs have a shorter window of safety due to the volatility of the position.

[Forza_Azzurri]

I completely disagree that Miller is a safe RB2 ... I am skeptical that Foreman makes a substantial contribution this year (at least in the first half), but IMO that just means HOU backfield will be a nightmare three-headed monster situation. Miller has never been able to be a feature back in an offense, I don't know why that would change with Foreman's injury. Blue or T Ervin (although his injury is probably worse than Foreman's) will get significant touches until Foreman is recovered.

Miller has at least 1200 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs, and over 30 receptions in each of his last 4 seasons. I would think that would be top 24 fantasy points at the running back position over those seasons. (Can't be bothered to look)

What has changed? Who is his competition? Has his competition improved this year?

I assume that Miller detractors thought he was a crappy running back from 2014-2017. So why shouldn't this crappy running back post top 24 numbers in 2018?

That is correct - in most typical PPR and STD formats Miller has been a top 24 RB for each of the past 4 years.

I think some of the dislike/distrust comes because while he has always had a safe floor, he never seems to reach that ceiling people hope or expect from him. Even in last year - his worst of 4 seasons - he had 10 games with 10+ ppg but only 2 of 20+.

He's basically an RB version of an Edelman or a Wallace (always a WR2/3 never an WR1), and RBs have a shorter window of safety due to the volatility of the position.

No one is arguing he hasn’t been a safe RB2 ... but things have clearly changed in Houston.

[Vcize]

I completely disagree that Miller is a safe RB2 ... I am skeptical that Foreman makes a substantial contribution this year (at least in the first half), but IMO that just means HOU backfield will be a nightmare three-headed monster situation. Miller has never been able to be a feature back in an offense, I don't know why that would change with Foreman's injury. Blue or T Ervin (although his injury is probably worse than Foreman's) will get significant touches until Foreman is recovered.

Miller has at least 1200 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs, and over 30 receptions in each of his last 4 seasons. I would think that would be top 24 fantasy points at the running back position over those seasons. (Can't be bothered to look)

What has changed? Who is his competition? Has his competition improved this year?

I assume that Miller detractors thought he was a crappy running back from 2014-2017. So why shouldn't this crappy running back post top 24 numbers in 2018?

Well, a lot. Namely that he averaged 3.7ypc and was phased out basically twice, including once down the stretch last year by Alfred Blue. He didn't even finish last year as the team's starting running back. That is a pretty big change.

[M-Dub]

I completely disagree that Miller is a safe RB2 ... I am skeptical that Foreman makes a substantial contribution this year (at least in the first half), but IMO that just means HOU backfield will be a nightmare three-headed monster situation. Miller has never been able to be a feature back in an offense, I don't know why that would change with Foreman's injury. Blue or T Ervin (although his injury is probably worse than Foreman's) will get significant touches until Foreman is recovered.

Miller has at least 1200 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs, and over 30 receptions in each of his last 4 seasons. I would think that would be top 24 fantasy points at the running back position over those seasons. (Can't be bothered to look)

What has changed? Who is his competition? Has his competition improved this year?

I assume that Miller detractors thought he was a crappy running back from 2014-2017. So why shouldn't this crappy running back post top 24 numbers in 2018?

Well, a lot. Namely that he averaged 3.7ypc and was phased out basically twice, including once down the stretch last year by Alfred Blue. He didn't even finish last year as the team's starting running back. That is a pretty big change.

Please stop. I’ve seen you promote this faulty narrative twice in this thread and at least once in another thread. It’s just disingenuous to pretend like Alfred Blue usurped Miller’s starting job based on talent. Blue out-touched him in the final two games of 2017. The season was lost. There was nothing to play for. Do you know how many targets Nuk had in those two games? A whopping six. Should we be concerned about his future role with the team as well?

If you want to argue that Foreman is a better back than Miller and will likely win the job this year or next, I have no problem with that and actually agree. But acting like Miller is garbage because he ceded the majority of the workload to Blue in the final two games of a lost season is either petty, short-sighted or both. It also doesn’t even really do much to prove that Miller sucks. Foreman was eating into his touches before he got hurt and then Blue got the majority of touches in two meaningless games, yet somehow, some way Miller STILL managed to finish as an RB2.

Yeah. He’s just completely worthless.

[ninotoreS]

things have clearly changed in Houston

It ain't clear to me. How has anything really changed yet? Foreman was nothing approaching the immediate success his dynasty drafters expected him to be last year, and now the injury jeopardizes his future on the heels of an already disappointing rookie campaign (he graded much worse than Miller across the board, even despite Miller being one of the least elusive RBs in the NFL).

This time last year, I myself expected Miller to be waived in Houston by now. It hasn't happened, and so far Foreman has not proven to be the ascending threat to Miller some of you are determined to believe.

If Foreman comes back with diminished burst from his injury (very possible) and/or isn't able to get back to full fitness and conditioning before the season starts (very possible), then Miller could coast along to another decent, volume-based fantasy year, especially with Watson under center for a full season.

[skip]

Being a Watson/Fuller/Foreman owner I watched as many HOU games as I could and Foreman just looked dynamic aka had the knack to break off big plays and win ball games.

I watched Houston every week and "dynamic" is not the word I'd use. I've likened him to the home run hitter who hits .250 with 40 HRs but will strike out 200+ times a year. If he isn't getting the big play, he gets far too many stops for very little gain.

[skip]

Miller has at least 1200 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs, and over 30 receptions in each of his last 4 seasons. I would think that would be top 24 fantasy points at the running back position over those seasons. (Can't be bothered to look)

What has changed? Who is his competition? Has his competition improved this year?

I assume that Miller detractors thought he was a crappy running back from 2014-2017. So why shouldn't this crappy running back post top 24 numbers in 2018?

Well, a lot. Namely that he averaged 3.7ypc and was phased out basically twice, including once down the stretch last year by Alfred Blue. He didn't even finish last year as the team's starting running back. That is a pretty big change.

Please stop. I’ve seen you promote this faulty narrative twice in this thread and at least once in another thread. It’s just disingenuous to pretend like Alfred Blue usurped Miller’s starting job based on talent. Blue out-touched him in the final two games of 2017. The season was lost. There was nothing to play for. Do you know how many targets Nuk had in those two games? A whopping six. Should we be concerned about his future role with the team as well?

If you want to argue that Foreman is a better back than Miller and will likely win the job this year or next, I have no problem with that and actually agree. But acting like Miller is garbage because he ceded the majority of the workload to Blue in the final two games of a lost season is either petty, short-sighted or both. It also doesn’t even really do much to prove that Miller sucks. Foreman was eating into his touches before he got hurt and then Blue got the majority of touches in two meaningless games, yet somehow, some way Miller STILL managed to finish as an RB2.

Yeah. He’s just completely worthless.

As have I. The whole Alfred blue thing is a bunch of nonsense. And phased out twice? I'd like to know when the first time was. Go back and look at the actual usage and you will find out that it was Foreman who is being phased out of the running game prior to him getting hurt.

[Bot101]

Being a Watson/Fuller/Foreman owner I watched as many HOU games as I could and Foreman just looked dynamic aka had the knack to break off big plays and win ball games.

I watched Houston every week and "dynamic" is not the word I'd use. I've likened him to the home run hitter who hits .250 with 40 HRs but will strike out 200+ times a year. If he isn't getting the big play, he gets far too many stops for very little gain.

Its much easier to stop a run play when even casual observers can see it coming from a mile away.

[kmbryant09]

Lamar Miller just hasn't been very good for the past 2 seasons and is trending in the wrong direction over the past 4 seasons:
2014: 5.1 ypc
2015: 4.5 ypc
2016: 4.0 ypc
2017: 3.7 ypc

He didn't top 75 rushing yards in any of the 16 games in 2017, and didn't even top 56 yards after Foreman's injury. His longest run was just 21 yards over 238 carries. You can spin it however you want, but he averaged 16+ carries per game through week 14, and then just 9 carries per game over the final 3 weeks.

Even as a Foreman owner, I can admit that he's a major question mark coming off a serious Achilles' injury. However, I think it's pretty clear that Lamar Miller's job is not safe in Houston. He may last the entire 2018 season if Foreman takes longer-than-expected to recover from injury, but he might not last more than a month...

[maxhyde]

Houston couldn't run the ball at all last year no matter who was handling it

[sugbear65]

I really like Foreman, so it stinks I feel like I’m beating on him on these forums too often. But I do think he’s a good litmus test to tell who actually watches the games and who doesn’t. I’m tired of writing the same thing over and over, so I’m just gonna copy and paste a previous response I made-
I like Foreman more than most, but when exactly did he look like he was he going to “take over last year”? I don’t mean to single you out, but I see this kind of thinking often and I’m wondering where it stems from. Foreman did a whole lot of not much at all really last year. I’ll grant you he flashed a couple big plays and that was definitely nice to see. But he never had more than 13 carries in a game. In the 5 games he did have 10+ carries, he averaged 4ypc or better in only 2. He had 6 catches on the season. He actually received more touches in weeks 2,3,4 then he did his last 3 games. L miler averaged more carries when Foreman was playing then when he wasn’t.
Listen, like I said I’m a big fan and super high on Foreman’s outlook moving forward. Buts I think it’s disingenuous to imply he had an impressive season or outplayed Miller last year, that’s just not really accurate. He didn’t do anything on the field to hurt his stock other than the injury. But he also didn’t really do anything that should have raised it much either.

[skip]

I really like Foreman, so it stinks I feel like I’m beating on him on these forums too often. But I do think he’s a good litmus test to tell who actually watches the games and who doesn’t. I’m tired of writing the same thing over and over, so I’m just gonna copy and paste a previous response I made-
I like Foreman more than most, but when exactly did he look like he was he going to “take over last year”? I don’t mean to single you out, but I see this kind of thinking often and I’m wondering where it stems from. Foreman did a whole lot of not much at all really last year. I’ll grant you he flashed a couple big plays and that was definitely nice to see. But he never had more than 13 carries in a game. In the 5 games he did have 10+ carries, he averaged 4ypc or better in only 2. He had 6 catches on the season. He actually received more touches in weeks 2,3,4 then he did his last 3 games. L miler averaged more carries when Foreman was playing then when he wasn’t.
Listen, like I said I’m a big fan and super high on Foreman’s outlook moving forward. Buts I think it’s disingenuous to imply he had an impressive season or outplayed Miller last year, that’s just not really accurate. He didn’t do anything on the field to hurt his stock other than the injury. But he also didn’t really do anything that should have raised it much either.

And I will also add this for those who think he was more impressive than Miller:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

This is by no means an argument to suggest that Miller is a great back, but it does show which of the two was more effective last season. Also of note, Miller was in the top 5 most effective RBs in the passing game.

This has been a hot topic of conversation for several months on here and I think both camps have dug themselves in that neither wants to give up any ground. But I concur that there is a lot of misinformation going around. Even when it comes to Foreman "taking over", I don't think that has ever been something that was suggested from within the organization, just from outside perspectives. It could very well happen but such a change would not have been based on production from 2017.