David Johnson - Code Red Panic? - Traded to Houston

[Needalife]

I think he is an elite RB for 2-3 more seasons (age 26-29) and will slow to be a solid RB2 at age 30 and then be hit or miss after that. He is easily a top asset for that reason. Don't be the guy who trades him for Royce Freeman "to get younger".

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Jamaal Charles only had 1 season with more than 50 receptions. And I would contend it was injuries to his knees that did him in, not age necessarily.

I think DJ should have 4-5 really solid seasons. He will be starting his 5th season from now at age 30.

[Jfever]

Thinking DJ will be relevant in fantasy in 5-7 years is just silly. Do yourselves a favor and don't try to project NFL rb anywhere past 2 years. Way too many things can happen in one 16 game NFL season. Weird how we are able to dismiss that. Cripes, it isn't like we are discussing a kicker here. He likely isn't even in the league at age 30-31. So, thinking past 3 years for a rb that will soon turn 27, is trivial.

[ninotoreS]

Don't be the guy who trades him for Royce Freeman "to get younger".

That would indeed be stupid.

But I might think long and hard about trading him in for 1.2 plus (a lot of plus). You'd get Guice or whoever else you got as the RB2 of this class, and while the drop off from DJ to Guice could be big in '18, don't underrate this year's class. A few superstar RBs other than Barkley are probably emerging from it.

In Guice's case, the fact that he's still not even 21, has 3-down ability as soon as Thompson is out of the way, and is being paired with an OC that coordinated monster seasons for Jamal Lewis and Willie Parker all points to a dynasty stud that could be poised for half a dozen elite seasons before he turns the same age DJ will be in 2019.

And I would contend it was injuries to his knees that did him in, not age necessarily.

Obviously, it's all related to age.

That non-contact second knee injury was a direct result of the knee and ankle injuries to his other leg causing him to overcompensate on the former leg for years. And since the second injury happened when he was too old, he couldn't recover. That's what happens when you get older. You can't get back to 100%, or even 90%, 80%... I've made exactly this point already.

Age caused the injury, and age prevented him from recovering from that injury. This is how age ends careers.

Direct and indirectly, age and abuse resulted in Charles losing his juice, and now it doesn't matter how good his hands and route-craft are, he's still done. Once a WR or RB has no juice, they can't do anything in the NFL. It's over.

Jamaal Charles only had 1 season with more than 50 receptions.

So does David Johnson.

Anyway, it's an established fact Charles was one of the league's best pass-catching RBs. When Denver gave him one last gasp to his career, it was for that aspect of his game. Miami signed Arian Foster for the same reason. Look how both those situations turned out.

There was a possibility DJ could have been a rich man's Larry Centers for his career, and thus have been on a track to remain effective well into his 30s. But he's gone the feature-back route, and y'all need to remember that an RB catching 80 passes in a season means he's also been tackled 80 more times on top of the 300 times he was tackled with his carries, plus all the other contact, broken tackles, etc, etc.

[ericanadian]

This isn't really a trade question persay, although it's prompted by me thinking about trading for David Johnson. How do you value him at his age of 26, and how long do you think he can remain elite? He's that age where all of a sudden it's something on my mind, but at the same token he's only entering his 4th season so the usage isn't what say Bell's is. Is it realistic to think he could have 3 more elite years left?

With Arians retired, his usage should drop a bit this year and should allow him to continue to produce for several more years. I run in three year windows, so he's not currently a concern for me from an age perspective.

[nathanq42]

But Charles was a 200 lbs back that was a speed demon. He had 2 (3?) Torn ACLs in the pros alone. I don't think it is fair to compare DJ at 230 to Charles at 200. They win in deferent ways, and the reliance on physical attributes differs. While DJ is a physical specimen in his own rights, Charles's speed and cuts were his bread and butter. You blow out a knee two or three times you lose a few steps and all of a sudden you go from leading the league to an average speed 200 lb running back. I think DJ's size and pass catching ability will keep him relevant much longer than Charles. With that said I don't expect him to be my RB1 after he next few seasons.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Do yourselves a favor and don't try to project NFL rb anywhere past 2 years.

Don’t do me any favors then, lmao...

[TheRookiePro]

DJ held out of practice an undisclosed injury:
“It’s the offseason, and I’m not going to really indulge in injuries or things like that,” Wilks said. “We’re going to talk about the guys that are out there.”

Interesting way for Steve Wilks to establish his relationship with the media at the start of his head coaching career.

[UATahoe]

It's the off-season so things normally get blown out of proportion but seems concerning given the head coach comments and the way he has handled other injury news.

[kadun2]

Mileage is one aspect of it, but it's more so the aging process. Muscles change as you age and that's really what causes the drop off in production. I think the mileage aspect comes into play because you're more likely to get injured the more you play. As you age, also, you heal slower.

Good stuff, thanks

[kadun2]

Don't be the guy who trades him for Royce Freeman "to get younger".

That would indeed be stupid.

But I might think long and hard about trading him in for 1.2 plus (a lot of plus). You'd get Guice or whoever else you got as the RB2 of this class, and while the drop off from DJ to Guice could be big in '18, don't underrate this year's class. A few superstar RBs other than Barkley are probably emerging from it.

In Guice's case, the fact that he's still not even 21, has 3-down ability as soon as Thompson is out of the way, and is being paired with an OC that coordinated monster seasons for Jamal Lewis and Willie Parker all points to a dynasty stud that could be poised for half a dozen elite seasons before he turns the same age DJ will be in 2019.

And I would contend it was injuries to his knees that did him in, not age necessarily.

Obviously, it's all related to age.

That non-contact second knee injury was a direct result of the knee and ankle injuries to his other leg causing him to overcompensate on the former leg for years. And since the second injury happened when he was too old, he couldn't recover. That's what happens when you get older. You can't get back to 100%, or even 90%, 80%... I've made exactly this point already.

Age caused the injury, and age prevented him from recovering from that injury. This is how age ends careers.

Direct and indirectly, age and abuse resulted in Charles losing his juice, and now it doesn't matter how good his hands and route-craft are, he's still done. Once a WR or RB has no juice, they can't do anything in the NFL. It's over.

Jamaal Charles only had 1 season with more than 50 receptions.

So does David Johnson.

Anyway, it's an established fact Charles was one of the league's best pass-catching RBs. When Denver gave him one last gasp to his career, it was for that aspect of his game. Miami signed Arian Foster for the same reason. Look how both those situations turned out.

There was a possibility DJ could have been a rich man's Larry Centers for his career, and thus have been on a track to remain effective well into his 30s. But he's gone the feature-back route, and y'all need to remember that an RB catching 80 passes in a season means he's also been tackled 80 more times on top of the 300 times he was tackled with his carries, plus all the other contact, broken tackles, etc, etc.

Good points, thanks

[jeffster]

Relevant piece from Adam Harstad that I bring up every time this sort of conversation happens: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/app ... rstadDiP18

[PNWHawkfan]

Anybody else worried about his production in a flat line offense. Is this a hold situation or a fire sale before it is too late? Curious what everyone is doing with his shares.

[C_n_red_again]

Well it can't get much worse. I'd hold

[Cowboysfan33]

I’m holding my two shares for now unless some owner blows me away with an offer. It is concerning though that he’s not getting as much work as we expected, they have to get him more touches, that’s there only real chance.