David Johnson - Code Red Panic? - Traded to Houston

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Cowboysfan33
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:51 pm

I’m not too worried about DJ. He should get so many touches/targets for that Cardinals team that he’s going to be a top 5 PPR RB, imo.

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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby skip » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:16 pm

Age is the #1 factor. Touches has very little to do with it. Some of the most successful in the game not only had major workloads throughout their career but large ones in college as well.
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby jeffster » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:44 am

I don't have a link, but I believe it was Adam Harsha who wrote a good one about the age dropoff for RBs. If I recall, the gist was that the average is misleading, because RBs either drop off early or last nearly as long as WRs? Have to look it up, but if I'm recalling it right then it suggests there's no reason to assume DJ can't be effective for years.

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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby _yeti » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:57 am

skip wrote: Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:16 pm Age is the #1 factor. Touches has very little to do with it. Some of the most successful in the game not only had major workloads throughout their career but large ones in college as well.
Agree. I think that as fast twitch muscle goes and you see athletes lose a step around 30 it just proves death for RBs who rely on those constant reactions, cuts, bursts, etc.

A QB is all about arm, pocket awareness, knowledge and mastery of the offense, etc. I think the fact is that RB is a position where as soon as you lose a step there is a young guy who can do it better where you can lose several steps at QB (or OL, or WR, or TE) and still be a much better option than the young guys because of your advanced mastery of the position. Look how clunky AP has started to look when he runs.
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RB: T. Etienne, T. Pollard, S. Barkley, J.Jacobs A. Jones, , A. Gibson, D. Harris, Z. Moss, E. Elliott
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby ArrylT » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:53 am

jeffster wrote: Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:44 am I don't have a link, but I believe it was Adam Harsha who wrote a good one about the age dropoff for RBs. If I recall, the gist was that the average is misleading, because RBs either drop off early or last nearly as long as WRs? Have to look it up, but if I'm recalling it right then it suggests there's no reason to assume DJ can't be effective for years.
I recall that article. :)
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby jeffster » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:52 am

ArrylT wrote: Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:53 am
jeffster wrote: Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:44 am I don't have a link, but I believe it was Adam Harsha who wrote a good one about the age dropoff for RBs. If I recall, the gist was that the average is misleading, because RBs either drop off early or last nearly as long as WRs? Have to look it up, but if I'm recalling it right then it suggests there's no reason to assume DJ can't be effective for years.
I recall that article. :)
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby schiewerma21 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:24 pm

Dj is older than bell by the way.... original poster said otherwise.


And yea dj is an interesting case. I probably won’t pay to own anywhere
TEAM 1: 12 man PPR (.25 passing and rushing attempt) dynasty league
QB:Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Zach Wilson
RB: Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Deandre Swift
WR: Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Deandre Hopkins, Chris Godwin, Jamaar Chase, Allen Robinson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Kyle Pitts, Hunter Henry

TEAM 2: 10 MAN Superflex. (standard PPR).
QB: Mahomes, Wilson, Stafford, Wentz, Jimmy G
RB: Mccaffrey, Zeke, Javonte, Akers, Jacobs, Edmonds, Henderson, Fournette, Pollard
WR: Adams, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Aiyuk, Odell Beckham, Devonta Smith Julio,Shenault
TE: Travis Kelce, George Kittle

TEAM 3:10 MAN PPR (2 QUARTERBACK LEAGUE took over orphan 2016) Dynasty League
QB: Dak, Lamar, Tua, Winston, Bridgewater,
RB: Mccaffrey, Henry, Aaron Jones, Chubb, Mike Davis
WR: Aj Brown, Terry Mclaurin, Theilen, Godwin, Juedy, Sutton, Watkins, Davis, Crowder
TE: Waller, Engram, Geodtert
2021picks: 1.10,3.10

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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:24 pm

Barring injury, Johnson still has a good 4-5 seasons of RB1 play in him. I honestly wouldn't worry about it.

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David Johnson longevity

Postby psu007 » Fri May 25, 2018 10:15 am

This isn't really a trade question persay, although it's prompted by me thinking about trading for David Johnson. How do you value him at his age of 26, and how long do you think he can remain elite? He's that age where all of a sudden it's something on my mind, but at the same token he's only entering his 4th season so the usage isn't what say Bell's is. Is it realistic to think he could have 3 more elite years left?
Team 1 - 12 Team, PPR, All 6TD

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, K, D

QB - Cousins, Luck, Mayfield
RB - Elliot, Thompson, McKinnon, Penny, Michel, Miller, E.McGuire, Foreman, Ekeler
WR - OBJ, Robinson, K.Allen, C.Davis, Allsion, M.Bryant, C.Coleman, Moncrief, P.Richardson, Chark
TE - Reed, Gathers, Shaheen, Seals-Jones
K - Jake Elliott
D - NE, MIA
Picks - 2019: 3-5

Team 2 - 12 Team, SF 0.5 PPR, 4/6TD

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1SF, 1FLEX, 1TE

QB - Cousins, Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield, Jackson
RB - Gurley, Ingram, Coleman, Clement, Booker, Rawls, Samuels
WR - Hilton, Fuller, Moore, Byrant, Locket, Moncrief, Rogers, Miller, St.Brown,
TE - Gesicki, Clay, McDonald, Andrews
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Re: David Johnson longevity

Postby kamihamster » Fri May 25, 2018 10:19 am

Mileage is one aspect of it, but it's more so the aging process. Muscles change as you age and that's really what causes the drop off in production. I think the mileage aspect comes into play because you're more likely to get injured the more you play. As you age, also, you heal slower.
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12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
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2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

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QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
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Re: David Johnson longevity

Postby Johnny Canuck » Fri May 25, 2018 10:25 am

I wouldn't be all that nervous about DJ. A massive part of his game is his pass catching ability, which helps prolong his longevity. Look at Sproles and Woodhead, obviously those guys didn't have the huge workload and take similar punishment to what DJ will, but they still have/had roles in the NFL at advanced age due to their superior pass catching skills.

I think you can count on 3-4 yrs of elite ability, and maybe 2-3 more after that of functional RB2 usage.

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Re: David Johnson longevity

Postby ninotoreS » Fri May 25, 2018 11:27 am

kamihamster wrote: Fri May 25, 2018 10:19 am Muscles change as you age... As you age, also, you heal slower.
The bolded part is the most important note in this context. It's the primary reason high level athletes experience accelerating drop off in performance with age, particularly in contact sports, obviously.

Everything takes longer to heal as you get older, and this includes the kind of minor aches and pains that don't make it on the injury report, but still play a factor in performance. The hurt begins to pile up, and stay piled up. Minor pains never seem to go away throughout the season and only get worse, and the type of injuries that make the injury report linger longer and might not ever really get back to true 100% until the offseason. Or maybe never.
Johnny Canuck wrote: Fri May 25, 2018 10:25 am I think you can count on 3-4 yrs of elite ability, and maybe 2-3 more after that of functional RB2 usage.
DJ turns 27 this season. You think he'll still be elite at age 31, and a fantasy RB2 at 34?

He'd need to have extremely rare genetics and/or incredible mental fortitude. It's really hard to stay elite at these ages for wide-receivers that are getting tackled on average much less than ten times a game, nevermind starting running-backs that are getting hammered three or four times more often than that every week.
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Re: David Johnson longevity

Postby HawkeyeState » Fri May 25, 2018 12:08 pm

I've played against this guy in HS, followed him closely at the college level, and have bumped into him a time or two since he's gone to the NFL. If there is a person who not only has the genetics and physical ability to be a prominent NFL player into his 30's but also has the work ethic and the attention to healing/stretching/foam rolling/massage all that recovery stuff, it's this David Johnson kid I'm telling you right now.

I think his pass catching ability gives him a longer NFL lifespan than a typical early down RB. If he starts to break down from interior usage, he still will hold value as a game changer out of the backfield in the receiving game, especially since he initially was a WR at UNI.

I wouldn't worry about his age. So much of dynasty is long term thinking BUT so much changes just on a year to year basis it's hard to know what will change in just one offseason let alone 2-4 years!
Team 1
10 TM .5 PPR, 6 pt all TDs 1/2/3/1/2Flex
Newton, Rivers
LF, Chubb, Michel, Kerryon, Hyde, AJones, Royce F, Crowell
Adams, Cooper, Alshon, Watkins, ARob, Fuller, Doctson, Funchess, Gallup, Pettis, Valdez-Scant
Gronk, HHenry, Engram
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 2
10 TM 1/2/3/1/1Flex 6pt all TDs .25 PPR RB, .5 PPR WR, 1 PPR TE
Wilson, Big Ben
Bell, JConner, MMack, Shady, CThompson, D'Onta Foreman, C Edmonds, B Scarborough
Julio, Nuk, Fuller, Cooks, ARob, Watkins, Cooper, SShepard, CDavis, DJ Chark
Kelce, Olsen, Andrews
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 3
10 team, 0.5 PPR RBs WRs, 1 PPR TEs, Devy Superflex League
Carr, Goff, Falk
Barkley, Dalvin, Mixon, Michel, Ballage, MDavis, Dixon, Akers*
Hopkins, JuJu, Watkins, Fuller, Agholor, Moncrief, EQSB, Valdez-Scant, CRogers
Eifert, Ebron, JJames, JCook
1.02, 2.02, 2.06, 3.04

Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too

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Re: David Johnson longevity

Postby ninotoreS » Fri May 25, 2018 12:19 pm

Being a great pass-catcher didn't extend the careers of Jamaal Charles and Brian Westbrook. It seems like you're suggesting a feature-back can transition to a pass-catching specialist when he gets older, but this doesn't happen in the NFL. If a feature-back loses his juice as a runner to age and abuse, he also loses the juice that made him dangerous in space as a receiver. And then at that point he's just a mundane outlet pass-catcher in the flat. Teams can get those guys anywhere.
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