Sleeper - Albert Wilson?

[kmbryant09]

Are we overlooking Albert Wilson for fantasy purposes this year?

I know he's never really been fantasy-relevant, but he's in a perfect situation after signing a relatively large Free Agent contract in Miami. It's not as simple as penciling him into Jarvis Landry's role, but he won't need more than ~60% of that opportunity to become fantasy-relevant in 2018. He'll split some of that work with Amendola, but remember that Jarvis Landry was WR #3 in PPR leagues last year, so there's plenty of opportunity to go around.

As if signing Wilson to a 3-year / $24mil contract wasn't enough support from the team, Adam Gase has been gushing about Wilson since the signing. Wilson profiles as a logical replacement for Landry, and Gase pointed out that Wilson has more speed & verticality to his game than Landry. Gase plans to use Wilson in a number of different ways in order to maximize his big-play ability - including plenty of screens and even some opportunities out of the backfield.

I think a realistic stat-line for Wilson would be: 110 targets / 70 catches / 850 yards / 6 TDs. That would be 156 fantasy points in my .5 PPR leagues - which was good enough for WR #23 last year.

Thoughts?

[ZPalmtree]

I have picked him up late in drafts or off the waiver wire in hopes of a sell later in the season. I’m not super sure about him, but threw a 4th rounder to get him.

[Phaded]

I think flier is more of an appropriate term than sleeper. I think you could also argue that Amendola fills the Landry role better than Wilson. Neither are as good as Landry.

However, hard to really like any of the Phins receiving options. Very uninspiring.

[Johnny Canuck]

I have him firmly in sleeper territory. No one is on to him yet, so get him while you can for cheappppppp.

Spent my 3.11 rookie/FA pick to snag him.

The only time NFL teams can't lie to you is after FA or the Draft. You can loosely gauge the teams interest in a player based on the round they were drafted, or the money spent in FA to acquire that player...and the Fins spent a fair bit on Albert Wilson. For anyone that doesn't know, Albert Wilson signed a 3 yr 24 million contract (for ref Amendola signed a 2 yr 12 million contact). Not only that, but the Fins didn't take one WR in the draft.

Factor in the personal that the Fins currently plan to utilize...Stills is just a downfield threat, Gase seems to dislike Parker/NTM Parker appears that he will never take the next step (Michael Floyd V2.0), and Amendola is perpetually injured. It appears as of now, that the Landry role (or at least a poor mans version of it) is Wilsons, and it's up to him to keep it. The only real competition for those slot targets would come from Gesicki imo, but he's a rookie TE so it's hard to realistically pencil him in for a ton of volume.

If you haven't read the recent articles by FantasyPros or Razzball about Wilson, I highly suggest taking 5 minutes to do it. They make a very compelling argument.

https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/05/ver ... -football/

https://football.razzball.com/buy-alber ... ll-formats

Missed Tackles Forced per Reception (Including Post Season):

Golden Tate: 0.24

Michael Thomas: 0.14

Jarvis Landry: 0.15

Albert Wilson: 0.36 (!)

Cooper Kupp: 0.23

Time to start the hype train

[kamihamster]

I am a Wilson owner and was on him since he signed. But I read something quoting Gase that Drake would fill in the Landry role. I doubt he does it full time since he's a RB but if that's how Gase plans to use Drake, I can see even less targets going Wilson's way. The other thing I read was a blurb that they are using Wilson all over the field. This is a good sign that he'll get the snaps and opportunity. I don't see him being a full Landry, but maybe 75% with a few more deep balls sprinkled in and a few more TDs.

[btv802]

Wilson easily under appreciated as a player in my opinion but TBD on how Phins actually deploy him.

[_yeti]

Gase quote mentioned in comment above is below. I think Wilson has sneaky PPR upside this year. Could be a good injury/bye week fill-in option. Coming off a 10/147 final game of 2017 I recently rostered him with the last pick in our rookie/FA draft.

Gase surely knows Wilson isn’t as good as Jarvis Landry, who was traded to Cleveland this month, but he believes he’s acquired a replacement with better speed and more versatility. He’s obviously well-suited for screen passes, but Miami will play him in the slot, outside and out of the backfield, giving Gase a wide-open opportunity to show off his creativity.

“His speed is hard to ignore,” he said. “We saw first-hand how fast he is and what he can do, how he can stretch the field vertically. When you put the ball in his hands, he makes plays. I don’t think I’ve seen too many wide receivers where a team is actually handing the ball off to him and he’s running between the tackles.

“He has toughness, he has vision and he has ability to do a lot of different things, which is very intriguing to us. We feel like we have a lot of things that we can do with him.”

[ninotoreS]

The obvious problem is that Wilson works best between the hashmarks and up the seam, and that's where Amendola works best, too. And then there's also Gesicki to consider, who if used correctly will be running seam routes out of the slot all Sunday. Seems to me there's too much overlap here and subsequently targets will be cannibalized between them, and no one really ends up fantasy valuable in '19.

With that said, there's always a decent chance of an Amendola injury. In that event, I become a lot more optimistic about Wilson.

[Vcize]

There are a lot of targets up for grabs in Miami and they paid him like a guy they plan to use. He's so cheap so I've been buying him up everywhere.

[BigBawseRoss]

i have him in lots of leagues, hes an excellent add for free or very little. should step right into that slot role

[sugbear65]

How is Miami a better situation? There were loads of targets asking to be had during his time in KC. I wouldn’t consider Tannehill a better QB than Smith, or Gase a better coach than Reid. I would guess he will be what he’s always been, which is irrelevant.

[Pullo Vision]

The only time NFL teams can't lie to you is after FA or the Draft. You can loosely gauge the teams interest in a player based on the round they were drafted, or the money spent in FA to acquire that player...and the Fins spent a fair bit on Albert Wilson. For anyone that doesn't know, Albert Wilson signed a 3 yr 24 million contract (for ref Amendola signed a 2 yr 12 million contact). Not only that, but the Fins didn't take one WR in the draft.

I scooped up Wilson too, but the structure of the contract is important. It wouldn't surprise me if Miami can easily get out of both Wilson's and Amendola's deal after this year. I think Miami is a good possibility to get a young WR next year in FA or the draft.

[Johnny Canuck]

The only time NFL teams can't lie to you is after FA or the Draft. You can loosely gauge the teams interest in a player based on the round they were drafted, or the money spent in FA to acquire that player...and the Fins spent a fair bit on Albert Wilson. For anyone that doesn't know, Albert Wilson signed a 3 yr 24 million contract (for ref Amendola signed a 2 yr 12 million contact). Not only that, but the Fins didn't take one WR in the draft.

I scooped up Wilson too, but the structure of the contract is important. It wouldn't surprise me if Miami can easily get out of both Wilson's and Amendola's deal after this year. I think Miami is a good possibility to get a young WR next year in FA or the draft.

Amendolas is essentially just a one yr deal with zero dead cap next yr. Unless he blows up he’s gone next offseason.

Even if they wanted to (which I doubt) there is zero chance the Fins get outta Wilsons until yr 3 at the earliest (~10 mil deadcap for yr 2 of his contract, ~1.5 mil deadcap for yr 3).

[John Paul]

I picked him up off of waivers post-draft.

[ericanadian]

Seems like this year's Markus Wheaton. I don't really understand the big contract, but there's a couple of these every year.