Declined Overpays...

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snaps06
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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby snaps06 » Mon May 21, 2018 8:45 pm

hockeyBjj wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 11:01 am Gonna jump on the Barkley topic for a moment. I just acquired the 1.1 (for 1.5, 1.6, Miller, Foreman) and next day had an offer of Kamara and 1.10 in my inbox. Last year's RB3 and rookie of the year for someone you just hope produces those fantasy numbers, and I know it was illogical but I turned it down

I sent an offer of D Cook (or D Henry and 2nd), Ajayi, 1.5, 1.6 at Gurley and Zeke owners and got told to stop bothering them. At a bare minimum I felt that was more than worthy of a counter, if not an outright overpay by myself

I also even offered 1.5, 1.6, and his choice of Miller, Ajayi, Ingram for Devonta Freeman and was told no. Offered Juju for Freeman straight up (Owner has Freeman as his RB3 and bleep for WRs) and was again declined. This was before I acquired Barkley, but reason I moved on to the 1.1 was because I found it effing impossible to get a top 10 running back in my leauge
I'm just going to throw this out there, being a Zeke owner in two leagues.

I'd have turned those down as well with no counter. I'm not personally going to counter a trade offer using my prized piece and dynasty anchor. If you want him badly enough, you're eventually going to offer me something I absolutely cannot resist. Until that point in time, I'm not going to send any offers involving that piece because I'm simply not interested in moving that specific player unless I'm absolutely blown away.

BTW Cook, Ajayi, 1.5, and 1.6 isn't nearly enough to land Gurley or Zeke. You've got a 2nd year guy who flashed but got seriously injured, a mediocre RB with bad knees in a messy backfield, and two rookie lottery tickets that may never pan out for a bonafide elite stud guaranteed 25 touches per game. You want Zeke? Offer up Hopkins, OBJ, or someone like that. It takes a stud to get a stud.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby snaps06 » Mon May 21, 2018 8:47 pm

hankmurphy wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 7:09 am I offered an owner Cooper Kupp and Tevin Coleman for Juju Smith-Schuster, and I’m 99%sure he’s going to decline it when he eventually checks his inbox.
Ummm.....I think you need to double-check the definition of an overpay.

That's an underpay for Juju, and I'm not a huge Juju fan.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon May 21, 2018 8:51 pm

snaps06 wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 8:47 pm
hankmurphy wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 7:09 am I offered an owner Cooper Kupp and Tevin Coleman for Juju Smith-Schuster, and I’m 99%sure he’s going to decline it when he eventually checks his inbox.
Ummm.....I think you need to double-check the definition of an overpay.

That's an underpay for Juju, and I'm not a huge Juju fan.
I kept wondering why everyone was taking the juju side and then realized it was Cooper Kupp and Coleman...., and not Cooper, Kupp, and Coleman :lol:

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Cy23 » Tue May 22, 2018 8:33 am

ericanadian wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 4:52 pm
hockeyBjj wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 11:01 am Gonna jump on the Barkley topic for a moment. I just acquired the 1.1 (for 1.5, 1.6, Miller, Foreman) and next day had an offer of Kamara and 1.10 in my inbox. Last year's RB3 and rookie of the year for someone you just hope produces those fantasy numbers, and I know it was illogical but I turned it down

I sent an offer of D Cook (or D Henry and 2nd), Ajayi, 1.5, 1.6 at Gurley and Zeke owners and got told to stop bothering them. At a bare minimum I felt that was more than worthy of a counter, if not an outright overpay by myself

I also even offered 1.5, 1.6, and his choice of Miller, Ajayi, Ingram for Devonta Freeman and was told no. Offered Juju for Freeman straight up (Owner has Freeman as his RB3 and bleep for WRs) and was again declined. This was before I acquired Barkley, but reason I moved on to the 1.1 was because I found it effing impossible to get a top 10 running back in my leauge
I wouldn't have given much thought to turning the Gurley/Zeke offer down. Cook has like 5 or 6 games of production. I don't think Ajayi is going to be a three down guy in Philly and 1.5/1.6 are lottery picks. The owner also needs to clear roster space to bring in those guy, so it's really for Gurley/Zeke plus his three worst players. It's probably closer if it fits his roster needs, but not a lot of teams need to downgrade from an elite runner to two upside guys and a couple of decent picks.

I would have strongly considered the Gurley/Zeke offer. Granted, Gurley/Zeke are the best players in the deal, but Cook is a top 10 RB and the 1.05/1.06 give you elite RB prospects in this loaded draft. You're downgrading slightly for an extra 3 RBs (Ajayi is clearly the RB4 in this deal, IMO).

If I was rebuilding or weak at RB, I would take the deal. If I had a strong contender without weaknesses, I might keep Gurley/Zeke for their elite production as it maximizes my starter points. But it is definitely in the ballpark and doesn't justify "stop bothering me" as a response. If I wasn't interested in trading my stud, I'd say that is a fair offer but I'm happy with my player and don't expect to trade.


EDIT: Just checked RB rankings here. Cook, Ajayi, 1.05 and 1.06 amount to #8, #19, #20 and #22. I think that is definitely equivalent value.
Last edited by Cy23 on Tue May 22, 2018 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Cy23 » Tue May 22, 2018 8:37 am

Shcritters wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 8:14 pm You think Melvin Gordon, 1.10, and ARob for 1 year gets it done? Interesting league format (see below), so changes things slightly.
I don't know if it gets it done, but it's worth throwing out there. Some owners won't trade the 1.01 even if you offer a kings ransom, others will view this as a downgrade at RB for two good WRs (ARob is top 15 IMO, and the 1.10 gets you a strong WR prospect).

It really depends on the owner. My assumption is that he won't even counter, but that's because a majority of owners are crazy about 1.01 picks and Barkley in particular.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby hankmurphy » Tue May 22, 2018 9:11 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 8:51 pm
snaps06 wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 8:47 pm
hankmurphy wrote: Mon May 21, 2018 7:09 am I offered an owner Cooper Kupp and Tevin Coleman for Juju Smith-Schuster, and I’m 99%sure he’s going to decline it when he eventually checks his inbox.
Ummm.....I think you need to double-check the definition of an overpay.

That's an underpay for Juju, and I'm not a huge Juju fan.
I kept wondering why everyone was taking the juju side and then realized it was Cooper Kupp and Coleman...., and not Cooper, Kupp, and Coleman :lol:
I guess I just didn’t realize Juju was valued so highly. My leaguemates and friends all said I was overpaying, and I didn’t think Kupp and Juju were that far apart in dynasty value.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby BeeziBad » Wed May 23, 2018 7:58 am

as a steelers fan, i suppose i need to hop on this juju train.
The Mega Powers - 12Team - 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K - 1PPR
QB - R. Tannehill, T. Bridgewater
RB - J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, C. Akers, Z. Moss, R. Jones, R. Armstead, M. Davis, C. Edmonds
WR - J. Jeudy, H. Ruggs, T. Higgins, L. Shenault, C. Claypool, J. Reagor, C. Davis, J. Washington, B. Aiyuk, Q. Cephus, KJ Hamler, A. Lazard
TE - C. Herndon, D. Sample
Picks - 2021 - 1, 1, 1

Jabroni Beaters - 10Team - 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K - NONPPR
QB - P. Mahomes B. Mayfield
RB - S. Barkley, E. Elliott, JK Dobbins, A. Peterson, M. Breida, D. Freeman
WR - T. Hill. AJ Brown, DJ Moore, J. Jefferson, J. Edelman, B. Aiyuk, L. Shenault, JJAW, B. Edwards
TE - Z. Ertz, H. Hurst, J. Smith

SuperSonics - 10Team - 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K - .5 PPR
QB - S. Darnold, R. Tannehill, C. Newton
RB - E. Elliott, N. Chubb, D. Cook, R. Jones, A. Peterson
WR - T. Hill, O. Beckham, D. Metcalf, C. Davis, H. Renfrow, R. Cobb
TE - Z. Ertz, E. Engram, H. Henry, J. Smith, K. Rudolph
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2021 - 2, 3

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Jfever » Fri May 25, 2018 8:42 am

Most of us in dynasty settings don't stress too often about bye weeks. I found myself trying to figure my way through a late season bye week potential issue last night. Not thinking this is a huge overpay offer by me at all, but here was the scenario and my thoughts. I have 3 qbs on this one contending team of mine and we are in middle of 2nd round of our rookie draft right now. All three of T.Brady, J.Garropolo and R.Tannehill have same bye week (11) I noticed. I'm like, oh, that kinda sucks, not a huge deal but, still sucks... as I'd rather not set myself up for a loss in week 11 just before playoffs start. So, I'm looking through other rosters to see if anyone is in need of a startable back up qb as I figure I'll move Tanny for something reasonable for both parties. Out of the 11 other teams in league, there is really only one that needs qb help in my opinion. This owner has Dak, Teddy B. and T.Siemian as their only qb's. I offer R.Tannehill, 3.11, 4.11 in return for 2.05. I would have worked with the owner if I'd have gotten a counter. Heck, I could have sweetened it a tad by adding a 5th or even a future 3rd but, I felt my original offer was close to fair considering needs. Declined. Sucks but, it happens, I'm not upset at all to be honest. Then owner drafts Baker Mayfield at 2.05. Argh. Not that I was interested in him myself at all. - I'm not. I was thinking that my offer of Tanny and the picks would have helped them and helped me with roster space / bye week issue. Just figured they get a suitable startable back up in Tanny and with the 3.11 and or 4.11 pick, I was thinking they'd have a good shot at any of the remaining Rosen, L.Jackson, J.Allen, Lauletta, Rudolph, Barrett, Etling, Woodside, etc. *Again, remember, no other team in the league is really in the market for a qb so a few more well known names should fall into 3rd round easily.

I was a bit surprised it was declined. I think it speaks to a couple things. #1. Many fantasy folks are down on R.Tannehill. (I'm not as low on him as most I'm betting), #2. Rookie fever and draft rankings have some rookie qb's pretty high when in reality it is very likely that in Mayfield's case (and basically, a few of the others), they wont play much or at all in 2018.

Oh well. Looks like I will have to figure out a different way to solve my week 11 qb bye week issue. I really didn't want to roster 4 qb's though. Argh.
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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Hambone72 » Sat May 26, 2018 1:55 pm

Barkley Hype is worse than Zeke hype and Zeke was a better prospect.
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Josh Allen, Carr, Hurts
Hunt, Mostert, Swift, JRob, Mattison, Connor, Damien Harris
Landry, Golladay, Watkins, Slayton, K Cole, Lazard, Dyami, J Palmer
Fant, Gesicki
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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby smallxl » Sat May 26, 2018 2:21 pm

Bot101 wrote: Sun May 20, 2018 11:05 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun May 20, 2018 11:01 am
BeeziBad wrote: Sun May 20, 2018 10:55 am You guys ever want someone so bad that you send the house at a guy and he still declines???? I just offered Michael Thomas, Dez Bryant, three 2019 firsts with one of the two almost guaranteed to be the 1.1, as well as three 2018 thirds, for the 2018 1.1....he still responds with ‘not even close’....so, with that being my recent, what are some of your wild overpays that have been declined?
Why would you offer that????!!!!.....and he's right, it isn't close. His side would have won that trade heavily. I just want to see 1 RB outproduce Barkley from this draft class, so much now. Not cheering against Saquon, just cheering for someone to be the hindsight 1.01 to show people their madness for declining moves like this.
The heck??? Why wont someone even offer me half that for 1.01?!? I hope you didnt actually put that offer in his inbox and it was just a verbal offer just to gauge interest...
I had 1.01 and really had very little offers..i think most people in my league assumed they could not get him.

I typically will overpay for guys I really want and it usually gets accepted rather easy. No clue why your offer would be turned down
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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Gordon09 » Sat May 26, 2018 6:44 pm

JFever wrote: Fri May 25, 2018 8:42 am Most of us in dynasty settings don't stress too often about bye weeks. I found myself trying to figure my way through a late season bye week potential issue last night. Not thinking this is a huge overpay offer by me at all, but here was the scenario and my thoughts. I have 3 qbs on this one contending team of mine and we are in middle of 2nd round of our rookie draft right now. All three of T.Brady, J.Garropolo and R.Tannehill have same bye week (11) I noticed. I'm like, oh, that kinda sucks, not a huge deal but, still sucks... as I'd rather not set myself up for a loss in week 11 just before playoffs start. So, I'm looking through other rosters to see if anyone is in need of a startable back up qb as I figure I'll move Tanny for something reasonable for both parties. Out of the 11 other teams in league, there is really only one that needs qb help in my opinion. This owner has Dak, Teddy B. and T.Siemian as their only qb's. I offer R.Tannehill, 3.11, 4.11 in return for 2.05. I would have worked with the owner if I'd have gotten a counter. Heck, I could have sweetened it a tad by adding a 5th or even a future 3rd but, I felt my original offer was close to fair considering needs. Declined. Sucks but, it happens, I'm not upset at all to be honest. Then owner drafts Baker Mayfield at 2.05. Argh. Not that I was interested in him myself at all. - I'm not. I was thinking that my offer of Tanny and the picks would have helped them and helped me with roster space / bye week issue. Just figured they get a suitable startable back up in Tanny and with the 3.11 and or 4.11 pick, I was thinking they'd have a good shot at any of the remaining Rosen, L.Jackson, J.Allen, Lauletta, Rudolph, Barrett, Etling, Woodside, etc. *Again, remember, no other team in the league is really in the market for a qb so a few more well known names should fall into 3rd round easily.

I was a bit surprised it was declined. I think it speaks to a couple things. #1. Many fantasy folks are down on R.Tannehill. (I'm not as low on him as most I'm betting), #2. Rookie fever and draft rankings have some rookie qb's pretty high when in reality it is very likely that in Mayfield's case (and basically, a few of the others), they wont play much or at all in 2018.

Oh well. Looks like I will have to figure out a different way to solve my week 11 qb bye week issue. I really didn't want to roster 4 qb's though. Argh.
I think this is just a bad offer. Regardless of 2018 season needs, this trade basically boils down to Tannehill vs. Mayfield and I don't think even the most optimistic Tannehill supporter is taking that. Tannehill's current ADP puts him at around a late 4th round rookie pick in 1 QB leagues.

The 3.11, 4.11, 5th rounder, etc. are just dart throws and probably not much better than what he has to drop to make room for those picks on his roster.

Regardless of Mayfield's playing time this year, it's only May, the owner has plenty of time to acquire additional QB talent if needed.

I recently took over an orphan that's loaded at QB (Wentz, Watson, Garopolo, Cousins, Bortles) and couldn't get a half decent offer for any of them. I couldn't get a mid 2nd for Cousins or Garopolo, I was getting offers like 4th/Amendola. It's just the nature of 12 team 1 QB leagues, QBs are easily replaceable.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Bot101 » Sun May 27, 2018 9:26 pm

Hambone72 wrote: Sat May 26, 2018 1:55 pm Barkley Hype is worse than Zeke hype and Zeke was a better prospect.
Get out. No. Before Zeke was drafted the consensus among almost everyone was “he can do everything well but nothing great” type of back. Matter of fact there was quite a few who still had Treadwell as the 1.01. It wasn’t till after the cowboys drafted him did the hype train start really moving. So get that lie outta here and wash your mouth with soap.

Edit: above is only addressing the Zeke is a better prospect than Barkley nonsense. The part about the Barkley hype out of control is factual.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Cy23 » Mon May 28, 2018 9:01 am

Bot101 wrote: Sun May 27, 2018 9:26 pm
Hambone72 wrote: Sat May 26, 2018 1:55 pm Barkley Hype is worse than Zeke hype and Zeke was a better prospect.
Get out. No. Before Zeke was drafted the consensus among almost everyone was “he can do everything well but nothing great” type of back. Matter of fact there was quite a few who still had Treadwell as the 1.01. It wasn’t till after the cowboys drafted him did the hype train start really moving. So get that lie outta here and wash your mouth with soap.

Edit: above is only addressing the Zeke is a better prospect than Barkley nonsense. The part about the Barkley hype out of control is factual.
I could be wrong, but I interpreted that as his personal opinion is that Zeke was the better prospect than Barkley. Which can't be a lie or false, he's stating his personal belief.

The general consensus is that Barkley is the better prospect, in that he is more athletic and whatnot, but I can see why an individual would prefer Zeke's overall body of work and talent to Barkley.

Either way, even if Barkley is the better prospect, the hype is out of control. I have the 1.02 in three leagues and don't think I'll be able to justify the expense of trading up to 1.01 in any of them :thumbdown:


EDIT: Just noticed the mention of Treadwell as a contender for 1.01. It is interesting how someone who was valued that highly has almost no value just a few years later. I know there were red flags about Treadwell even then, which are absent for Barkley, but that is one reason why I'm hesitant to anoint Barkley or any other rookie before they prove themselves in the NFL. Or to put a different spin on it, it is one example of why someone may be really smart to value prospects different from the consensus. Hambone may end up looking silly for valuing Zeke over Barkley, but sometimes the consensus isn't correct. I'd rather base my FF decisions on a strong personal conviction rather than general ADP/consensus.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Jason » Mon May 28, 2018 9:56 am

It's just silly to pay those prices for Barkley. You are paying for his ceiling before he even steps on a field, there's just no value to doing that. Unless you are a Penn State/NY Giants fan and have to have him due to homerism and think he's gonna go from costing 6+ first round picks to 10+ or something lol.

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Re: Declined Overpays...

Postby Cy23 » Mon May 28, 2018 1:44 pm

Jason wrote: Mon May 28, 2018 9:56 am It's just silly to pay those prices for Barkley. You are paying for his ceiling before he even steps on a field, there's just no value to doing that. Unless you are a Penn State/NY Giants fan and have to have him due to homerism and think he's gonna go from costing 6+ first round picks to 10+ or something lol.
Excellent point. You are paying for his ceiling under the assumption that he will be extremely good.

But if he doesn't become a top 5 RB in FF by 2019, you've drastically overpaid. And even if he becomes a top 5 RB, I think you've paid market value for that sort of production.

With other rookies, the risk-factor is built into the price. Kamara or Hunt had high ceilings, but were affordable because of their floor. I'm just not sure how you can improve your dynasty team by paying market price for a prospect unless you sincerely believe the assets that you give up will have less value than their current value.


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